Tropical Storm Hone Public Advisory

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024

000
WTPA41 PHFO 310831
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024

Another nocturnal convective bloom has begun along the northeastern
semicircle of Hone this evening. Deep convection obscures the low
level circulation center (LLCC) once again after at least 12 hours
of total exposure. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity
values range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt between the three fix
centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 29 kt and, unfortunately, Hone fell into
the ASCAT scan gap this cycle. Given all this, the initial
intensity is set at 30 kt once again.

Short term motion has become a bit erratic for Hone, with movement
toward the north or even north northeast detected at 5 kt or less
since 03Z. Motion over the past 12 hours, used to smooth out
erratic motion like this, was about 330 degrees at 5 kt. However,
there is quite a bit of uncertainty on what Hone's initial motion
should be this cycle. It seems clear that Hone has begun its
forecast turn to the north northwest as it starts to feel the
influence of an upper low near Midway Atoll. Global models show
Hone's LLCC and the upper low becoming well-aligned in the next 24
to 36 hours. After that, Hone will move slowly northwestward. Little
change was made to the track forecast through 48 hours, other than a
nudge to the right to account for current erratic motion. Beyond
that, the track forecast was adjusted significantly to the right to
keep it within the ever-shifting guidance envelope, closely
following HWRF. Even with this adjustment, the forecast track lies
within the left third of this envelope.

Global models show shear across Hone will diminish rapidly over the
next 36 hours. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginally
favorable for development through 48 to 60 hours, with sub-27
degree C water encountered afterward. Except for HAFS, which
repeatedly calls for rapid intensification, the intensity guidance
envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast
lies comfortably within this envelope, close to IVCN, with little
change from the last forecast cycle. Hone will slowly strengthen
through 120 hours but cap out as a tropical storm. After passing
south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to
cross the International Dateline sometime Sunday afternoon Hawaii
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 22.5N 175.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 23.3N 176.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 24.6N 177.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 25.5N 178.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 26.3N 179.8E   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 28.0N 179.3E   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 29.7N 178.7E   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 32.1N 176.7E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 34.6N 175.0E   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell