000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector this evening continues to produce a large area of deep convection, though this activity is struggling to become better organized and wrap around the circulation center, possibly due to continued 15-20 kt westerly shear helping to entrain very dry mid-level air near its center. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain largely unchanged this evening, and the initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move off to the west-northwest at 285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering Hector is expected to weaken somewhat as a mid- to upper-level weakness forms north of Hector. However, the cyclone is also likely to become more vertically shallow and thus steered more by a low-level ridge that will remain in place to the north. Thus, the track forecast shows Hector bending back more westward over the next several days. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. The overall environment near Hector currently is not all that favorable for much additional strengthening. The current moderate shear is not forecast to let up much as Hector also moves over the cold wake left behind by Gilma, which itself has dramatically weakened as it encountered less favorable conditions. Thus, weakening continues to be forecast with Hector, in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show the cyclone losing its remaining organized convection after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low before it crosses into the Central Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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