Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA41 PHFO 270921 CCA TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 20...Corrected NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Corrected 36 h forecast position. Deep convection continues to develop over the low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Hone this evening. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 3.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and at 2.0 from SAB. Meanwhile, a couple of SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS were around 50 knots close to 00z this afternoon. With little change in satellite presentation since the previous advisory package, the initial intensity has been held at 50 knots. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Hone will continue slightly north of due west at a similar forward speed during the next 24 hours, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north-northeast. A similar motion with a slightly slower forward speed is expected thereafter, as the subtropical ridge weakens. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the track consensus guidance. Hone will remain in a rather hostile environment during the next few days with westerly vertical wind shear of 30 to 40 knots and dry mid-level air surrounding the system. Despite increasingly warm sea surface temperatures, the hostile conditions should lead to steady weakening during the next few days, and Hone is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Thursday. The intensity forecast has changed little and is closely aligned with the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.8N 164.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.0N 166.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.3N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.7N 170.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 21.2N 172.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.7N 174.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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