Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA41 PHFO 280238 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 23 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Despite moderate to strong westerly shear, Hone continues to produce a cluster of strong convection just northeast of the low-level center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are currently ranging from 35-55 kt, and the initial intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 45 kt. The cyclone continues to move west-northwestward of 285/9 kt. There is again little change to the track forecast philosophy, as flow around a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain this general motion for the next 2-3 days. There is little change to the track guidance from the previous advisory, and there is also little change to the forecast track. Strong westerly shear of 40 kt should affect Hone for the next few days, and that combined with dry air entrainment should cause weakening. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area around 60-72 h. One change in the intensity forecast was to add a day as a remnant low in agreement with the global models. It should be noted that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a large mid- to upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h, with the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it is not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and until there is more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone dissipating by this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.3N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.6N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.3N 172.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.8N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 22.3N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/0000Z 22.7N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 23.0N 179.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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