Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA41 PHFO 290237 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 This morning's burst of deep convection near the center of Hone has faded, and the low-level circulation center has become fully exposed again. Strong vertical shear continues to keep the tropical cyclone asymmetric with deep convection confined to the northeastern quadrant. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB again came in at 30 to 55 kt. The objective estimates were 28 to 40 kt. A nice ASCAT pass from late this morning showed several 45 kt wind barbs. The initial intensity for this advisory will be kept at 45 kt, and the 34 kt radii were also expanded slightly based on the scatterometer data. Hone will remain over warm SSTs through the forecast period. Vertical shear will remain strong over the next 2 to 3 days. The main question will be whether or not the strong shear will result in post-tropical cyclone status within that time frame. GFS simulated IR data seems to favor the post-tropical scenario. The high-res hurricane models favor maintenance as a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF has pulsing but generally decreasing deep convection that could result in post-tropical cyclone status between 24 and 72 hours. For this advisory, Hone is now forecast to remain as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period in deference to the high-res models and considering that its current deep convection is stronger than the GFS/post-tropical solution valid for the current time. In terms of intensity, the forecast generally follows the consensus of the objective aids and shows slight initial weakening, then keeps Hone as a 40 kt system until 96 hours. This forecast of relatively steady intensity reflects the possibility that despite the strong shear, deep convection will continue to pulse enough to maintain its strength. At the end of the forecast period, Hone is forecast to intensify, with several models showing an increase to typhoon strength beyond 120 hours west of the International Date Line. For this advisory, Hone's initial movement is 280/8 kt. The tropical cyclone is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days based on the tight clustering of the objective guidance. As Hone approaches the International Date Line, the tropical cyclone is forecast to interact with a developing low pressure system aloft, which will result in a turn toward the northwest. The various global models handle this interaction differently, resulting in greater spread in the objective guidance and greater uncertainty beyond 72 hours. Toward the end of the forecast period, there is a potential risk of impacts to Midway, Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.8N 170.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 171.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.4N 173.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 21.8N 174.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 22.3N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 23.1N 176.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.3N 176.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 26.5N 179.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 27.5N 177.0E 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kodama
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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