Tropical Depression Hone Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA41 PHFO 310831 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Another nocturnal convective bloom has begun along the northeastern semicircle of Hone this evening. Deep convection obscures the low level circulation center (LLCC) once again after at least 12 hours of total exposure. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 29 kt and, unfortunately, Hone fell into the ASCAT scan gap this cycle. Given all this, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt once again. Short term motion has become a bit erratic for Hone, with movement toward the north or even north northeast detected at 5 kt or less since 03Z. Motion over the past 12 hours, used to smooth out erratic motion like this, was about 330 degrees at 5 kt. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on what Hone's initial motion should be this cycle. It seems clear that Hone has begun its forecast turn to the north northwest as it starts to feel the influence of an upper low near Midway Atoll. Global models show Hone's LLCC and the upper low becoming well-aligned in the next 24 to 36 hours. After that, Hone will move slowly northwestward. Little change was made to the track forecast through 48 hours, other than a nudge to the right to account for current erratic motion. Beyond that, the track forecast was adjusted significantly to the right to keep it within the ever-shifting guidance envelope, closely following HWRF. Even with this adjustment, the forecast track lies within the left third of this envelope. Global models show shear across Hone will diminish rapidly over the next 36 hours. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginally favorable for development through 48 to 60 hours, with sub-27 degree C water encountered afterward. Except for HAFS, which repeatedly calls for rapid intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within this envelope, close to IVCN, with little change from the last forecast cycle. Hone will slowly strengthen through 120 hours but cap out as a tropical storm. After passing south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the International Dateline sometime Sunday afternoon Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 22.5N 175.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 23.3N 176.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 24.6N 177.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 25.5N 178.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.3N 179.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 28.0N 179.3E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 29.7N 178.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 32.1N 176.7E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 34.6N 175.0E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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