000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280834
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
Hector continues to produce a large area of deep convection,
although it has become a little less organized this evening. Recent
microwave imagery depicts that the system is starting to tilt due to
15-20 kt of westerly wind shear. A recent scatterometer pass of
ASCAT-B depicted satellite derived winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective
and objective intensity estimates have held steady for this advisory
and range from 40-45 kt. Using a blend of ASCAT data and the
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory.
The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at 285/10
kt. The mid-level ridge ridge to the north will keep Hector on a
west-northwestward to westward motion the next day or so. As the
system weakens and becomes vertically shallow a more westward motion
will occur as the system is steered in the low-level flow. The model
guidance is in fairly good agreement and the latest NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous advisory.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions near the system are not very
favorable as Hector will continue to deal with westerly wind shear,
drier air, and moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. This
should cause Hector to gradually weaken over the next few days.
Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will
struggle to produce organized deep convection in about 36 h, and
open into a trough and dissipate in 60 h. This is reflected in the
latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 18.4N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
…HECTOR FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…
As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Aug 27
the center of Hector was located near 18.4, -132.0
with movement WNW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is launchinga global strategy to halt the transmission of mpox, formerly called monkeypox. The plan, announced on Aug. 26, will entail a “strategic vaccination” campaign.
The U.N. health agency, which declared a public health emergency of international concern two weeks ago, said that the plan will last six months—September 2024 to February 2025—and will receive $135 million in funding.
“Strategic vaccination” efforts will target people at the highest risk such as “close contacts of recent cases and healthcare workers, to interrupt transmission chains,” the agency said.
The WHO plan will focus on “implementing comprehensive surveillance, prevention, readiness, and response strategies; advancing research and equitable access to medical countermeasures like diagnostic tests and vaccines; minimizing animal-to-human transmission; and empowering communities to actively participate in outbreak prevention and control,” according to a statement.
Officials say that a subvariant of the virus has caused global concern because it seems to spread more easily through routine close contact.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in the Aug. 26 statement that the mpox outbreak, which originated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, “can be controlled and can be stopped.”
“Doing so requires a comprehensive and coordinated plan of action between international agencies and national and local partners, civil society, researchers and manufacturers, and our Member States,” he said.
More Cases Confirmed Outside Africa
The Philippines has confirmed two more mpox virus infections of the milder Clade II variety, its health ministry said on Aug. 26, bringing the number of active cases to three.
“We continue to see local transmission of mpox Clade II here in the Philippines, in Metro Manila in particular,” Secretary of Health Teodoro Herbosa said in a statement.
He added that newly confirmed cases were a 37-year-old male in Metro Manila who had a rash on his body and was brought to a government hospital and a 32-year-old male from the capital who had lesions on his skin.
The Philippines announced last week that it had detected a case of the mpox virus’s milder variant in a 33-year-old male who had no travel history outside the Philippines.
The Philippines has had 12 laboratory-confirmed cases since July 2022. The World Health Organization earlier this month declared mpox a global public health emergency, its highest form of alert, for the second time in two years, because of an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo that had spread to neighboring countries.
Since January 2023, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported more than 27,000 suspected mpox cases and more than 1,300 deaths.
The disease leads to flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions. It is usually mild but can be fatal. Children, pregnant women, and people with weakened immune systems, such as those with HIV, are all at higher risk of complications.
Other countries outside the African continent that have confirmed mpox cases in recent days include Sweden and Thailand.
“We have now also during the afternoon had confirmation that we have one case in Sweden of the more grave type of mpox, the one called Clade I,” Swedish Minister for Social Affairs and Public Health Jakob Forssmed said at a news conference at the time.
No Lockdowns
Earlier in August, a WHO official stressed that mpox would not cause lockdowns or closures or restrict other activity.
“Are we going to go in lockdown in the WHO European region, it’s another COVID-19? The answer is clearly: ‘no,’” Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, said days after the WHO declaration was issued.
“Two years ago, we controlled mpox in Europe thanks to the direct engagement with the most affected communities of men who have sex with men.”
In an update around the same time, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that mpox currently poses a low risk to the United States and that no cases of Clade I mpox have been found in the country.
Politico reporter Mia McCarthy tried to attack JD Vance for linking Kamala Harris to the failures of President Joe Biden’s administration. The dishonest headline quickly backfired on her.
A day after former President Donald Trump honored 13 fallen American service members at Arlington National Cemetery, NPR is claiming Trump campaign staff got into an “altercation” with a cemetery official who prevented them from taking photographs in an off-limits section.
000
WTPA41 PHFO 280238
TCDCP1
Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
Despite moderate to strong westerly shear, Hone continues to
produce a cluster of strong convection just northeast of the
low-level center. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are currently ranging from 35-55 kt, and the
initial intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 45 kt.
The cyclone continues to move west-northwestward of 285/9 kt. There
is again little change to the track forecast philosophy, as flow
around a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone should maintain this general motion for the next 2-3 days.
There is little change to the track guidance from the previous
advisory, and there is also little change to the forecast track.
Strong westerly shear of 40 kt should affect Hone for the next few
days, and that combined with dry air entrainment should cause
weakening. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling
for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area around
60-72 h. One change in the intensity forecast was to add a day as a
remnant low in agreement with the global models. It should be noted
that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a large mid- to
upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h, with
the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it
is not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and
until there is more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone
dissipating by this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 20.3N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.6N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.3N 172.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.8N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 22.3N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 31/0000Z 22.7N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 23.0N 179.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
…HONE CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…
As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Aug 27
the center of Hone was located near 20.3, -167.0
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.