Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
Month: August 2024
Hurricane Gilma Public Advisory
…GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER…
As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26
the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -139.2
with movement W at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 973 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Gilma Forecast Advisory
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270832 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 139.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory
…HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH…
As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26
the center of Hector was located near 17.1, -127.5
with movement WNW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Natural Law and Rothbardian Liberty
Modern mainstream economics bases its theories on utilitarianism. Murray Rothbard, on the other hand, saw economic law as based in natural law. Furthermore, he rejected the legal positivism of our age, again deferring to the law of nature.
Unprotected Concrete and Steel Tower Block Collapses On Live TV | Plainly Difficult
Go to https://ground.news/plainlydifficult to give it a try. If you sign up through my link you’ll get 40% off the Vantage plan, which is what I use to get unlimited access to all features. I think Ground News is doing important work and I hope you’ll check them out.
On 19 January 2017, The Plasco Building in Tehran Iran collapsed after being consumed by a fire, taking the lives of 20.
Learn with Plainly Difficult!
Thank you to my Patreons, Youtube Members and Paypal Donors, your support keeps the lights on!
Join this channel to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCb0MyY46T9ZYOzDHkYnIoXg/join
My Album: https://madebyjohn.bandcamp.com/album/we-are-here-to-help
This weeks Outro Song:
►https://youtu.be/LJVNt_ruEJ0?si=OFgy3ZgRNTI33n7o
SOCIAL MEDIA:
► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Plainly_D
► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/plainly.john/
EQUIPTMENT USED::
►SM7B
►Audient ID14
►MacBook Pro 16
►Hitfilm
►Logic X
MUSIC:
►Intro: Scheherazade (Rimsky-Korsakov)
►Outro: Second Sun (Made By John)
OTHER GREAT CHANNELS:
►https://www.youtube.com/user/dominotitanic20/community
►https://www.youtube.com/user/CynicalC…
►https://www.youtube.com/user/JabzyJoe
►https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGHDQtN_vzFYJaq_Fx1eikg
#disaster #Documentary #History #TrueStories
Keywords: Plasco Towers, Disaster Management, Concrete Building Collapse, Poor Design, Failed Concrete
Western Culture has Abandoned Wisdom and Replaced it with “Science” – Ignore the Advice of “Scientists” if you Want to Live Long!
by Brian Shilhavy, Health Impact News: Being in my mid-60s now, I am entering into a phase of life that Western culture generally refers to as my “senior years.” Outside of Western culture, especially in many Asian and Middle Eastern cultures, this is the phase of life that is equated with “wisdom,” recognizing that people […]
The Quiet Before The Storms In Ukraine, Gaza, And Taiwan?
The Quiet Before The Storms In Ukraine, Gaza, And Taiwan?
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
There are three current hot or cold wars: on the Ukrainian border, in the regions surrounding Israel, and in the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China.
All three conflicts could not only expand within their respective theaters but also escalate to draw in the United States.
And all three involve nuclear powers.
-
Various Russian megaphones routinely threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Some boast about sending strategic nuclear bombs or missiles against its Western suppliers, especially as the costs of Russian aggression mount and the humiliation of Putin escalates.
-
Nuclear Israel and near-nuclear Iran have both exchanged attacks on their respective homelands—and promise to do so again.
-
China likewise on occasion existentially threatens Taiwan. Its freelancing generals and spokesmen periodically warn Japan and the U.S. of dire nuclear consequences should they intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
In all these theaters, there superficially appears to be stasis and deadlock:
-
Israel is said to be bogged down in Gaza as it seeks to neutralize 400 miles of subterranean command-and-control installations and munitions, find and rescue surviving Israeli hostages, and take out the Hamas leaders. And no one believes that the degradation of Hamas will mark the end of the war, given the agendas of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, to attack periodically and chronically the Jewish state.
-
Combined Russian and Ukrainian dead, wounded, and missing may be nearing one million. Experts argue about whether the current apparently successful Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kursk inside Russia was merely a demonstration to gain diplomatic concessions. Or was it designed to take and hold ground inside the Russian homeland? Or intended to draw off Russian offensives to the southeast? Some call it brilliantly conceived but dangerous—given the risk of its ending like the ill-fated Battle of the Bulge German offensive of 1945 that achieved startling initial success but was soon ground down by superior numbers and ultimately weakened the overall German defense.
-
China has stepped up its harassment of Philippine forces and its rhetoric. It has upped its intrusions into Taiwanese airspace and waters while cementing strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran, even as it courts India and Turkey. Yet for now, China is not especially eager to attack Taiwan, given that it feels it is steadily gaining momentum in psychologically, strategically, and politically strangling the Taiwanese.
Confusion and strategic pauses for the brief moment mark all these conflicts. In part, the hiatuses arose because of uncertainty surrounding the murky intentions and role of the United States. The latter is bogged down in an unpredictable if not bizarre election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and for how long, and who will be president after January 2025.
The 2024 race saw the first-ever presidential debate held well before the formal nomination of candidates, the sudden forced removal of President Biden from his reelection candidacy, the abrupt coronation of a once-deemed-unimpressive Kamala Harris as his replacement, the inability or unwillingness of Harris to meet the media or give interviews, the continued apparent debility of Biden as he enters the last six months of his presidential tenure, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the near-even presidential polls.
While Russian and Ukrainian forces advance and retreat along their shared border, most experts privately feel that there is quiet consensus about an eventual armistice to end the Somme-like bloodbath. This will involve recognition of Russia’s control over the Donbas and Crimea that Putin attacked and de facto absorbed in 2014; a demilitarized border; and an autonomous and heavily armed but non-NATO Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine is running out of manpower, given its losses, draft problems, and a quarter of the population having fled the country. Russia has suffered twice as many casualties as Ukraine and faced blows to its military prestige. It has so far found no tactical or strategic pathway to absorb Ukraine as it intended with its February 2022 surprise attack on Kyiv.
Yet the apparent ossification on the border may be illusory. If either side cracks and its enemy suddenly makes dramatic advances, a dangerous escalation could ensue, and rapidly so. Russia will likely not allow Ukraine to occupy for any extended period any Russian territory and will up its threats toward what it sees as an exhausted Ukraine and a tired NATO partnership.
And NATO and the United States will likely never allow Russia to annex Ukraine in toto beyond the Donbas and Crimea. The longer the ensuing stagnation, the more likely one side will seek a dramatic breakthrough, and so the more likely becomes a greater war with third-party intervention and deadlier weapons.
Turning to the second conflict, we find that Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year. Hezbollah threatens to join in, perhaps along with anemic contributions from Hamas and the Houthis.
Yet does Iran really believe that even a missile and drone launch twice the size of its last huge but failed barrage—say 640 projectiles—will seriously injure Israel? Even with the confusion and chaos in the U.S., is Tehran really convinced that the U.S. and some of its European and Arab allies will not again intervene to protect their own assets or their own or international airspace, by knocking down Iranian aerial attacks?
In short, Iran’s rhetoric and the provocations of its satellites have put it in a lose/lose situation: to save face the theocracy feels it must honor its threats and attack Israel, but it also knows it may not be able to do much damage, while earning a second retaliatory response potentially far more grievous and far more warranted in international eyes than Israel’s prior successful but largely demonstrative missile launch.
Ditto Hezbollah. It hopes that its some 150,000 rockets and drones will do real damage in concert with an Iranian attack but accepts that it will certainly earn in response a devastation of Shiite Beirut and its environs far in excess of what it suffered in 2006. The damage from that conflict took a generation to repair, with hundreds of miles of roads, thousands of homes, and billions of dollars in infrastructure destroyed.
So, like the Ukrainian conflict, the Middle East war is only temporarily on pause. And it will continue until Iran or Israel seeks to break the stalemate in a second phase that would make the Gaza campaign seem minor in comparison and be far more likely to draw in outside powers—especially if the United States appears feeble and unable to protect its traditional ally Israel.
As for the third, still-bloodless conflict: China envisions strategy globally rather than regionally. It helps to fuel the stalemate in Ukraine, on the grounds that its traditional rival turned temporary friend Russia is hurting the West by consuming its money, weapons, and attention—while conveniently hurting itself in the process.
China is openly aiding Iran, not because it is especially friendly to radical Islam (cf. its treatment of the Uyghurs) or innately hostile to the Jewish state. Instead, it simply welcomes these tensions that cause radical domestic upheaval and political dissension inside America, while drawing U.S. naval and air assets far away from the South China Sea.
China’s operating principle seems to be to watch and wait for the outcome of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, given that both tax Western powers. It is eager and patient to see how the conflicts end, especially whether Russia achieves by force its apparent goals, and whether Iran and its proxies permanently redefine the future of the Middle East. These outcomes will serve to indicate the level of potential Western resistance to or intentional condemnation of its own planned annexation of Taiwan.
In conclusion, we are entering a very dangerous five-month period.
Joe Biden has been judged by the American people in the polls as too enfeebled to be reelected and declared by his own party to be too cognitively challenged to remain its nominee. That may suggest to foreign risk-takers that the U.S. president is deemed unfit by Americans themselves and thus conclude there might be a vacuum of rapid-response leadership at the White House.
The unspoken corollary is that the American people and both their political parties are certain that, while Biden is incapable of continuing as a normally engaged president through the last half-year of his tenure, he will nevertheless inevitably do so. And that conclusion is likely shared by enemies abroad, who may surmise that if there ever was a time to alter the current geostrategic map or the relative balance of power, that rare occasion is now on the horizon.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/26/2024 – 23:25
WSJ Editorial Board Rips Harris over Afghanistan Withdrawal
The Wall Street Journal editorial board let loose on Vice President Kamala Harris for her role in President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal in an op-ed on Monday.
The post Wall Street Journal Editorial Board Rips Kamala Harris over Afghanistan Withdrawal appeared first on Breitbart.
Japan says Chinese aircraft incursion ‘serious violation’
Japan slammed on Tuesday what it called the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into its airspace as a “serious violation” of its sovereignty, saying it was part of a pattern by Beijing. “The violation of our airspace by Chinese military aircraft is not only a serious violation of our sovereignty but also […]
The post Japan says Chinese aircraft incursion ‘serious violation’ appeared first on Insider Paper.