Understanding the Basics of Modern Banking
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Understanding the Basics of Modern Banking


The monetary and banking system plays an incredibly important role in contemporary economies. Knowledge of how this system functions should therefore be spread as widely as possible, yet the education system barely instructs its students about this subject, if indeed it instructs them about it at all. This article aims to contribute to bridging this gap by giving a basic overview of how the system of money creation and banking works today. The reader may also be interested in studying the discussion of alternative systems, however, this article will focus only on describing the dominant system of the present.

Open Market Operations and Fractional-Reserve Banking (FRB)

The central bank has a monopoly of issuing notes, that is, physical currency. The difference between the face value of the currency created and the cost to produce it is called seigniorage, and it gives a profit to the monetary sovereign, in this case the central bank. The notes of contemporary central banks aren’t redeemable in anything but themselves; they are created out of nothing by the fiat, or order, of the central bank itself. It is likely that physical currency produced by central banks will be partially replaced by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the near future. These will perform many of the same functions as physical currency, and preserve features like seigniorage.

Central banks are able to purchase assets from actors in the economy. They do this by writing a “check,” or demand deposit on themselves. These check are created out of nothing by fiat of the central bank, and are only redeemable in central bank notes. When the central bank purchases assets from regular banks using these checks (which are now electronic), the banks keep this money in reserve at their own accounts that they hold with the central bank. When the central bank purchases assets from other actors in the economy, the checks end up in the same place. The actor who receives the check in exchange for assets deposits it with his bank, and the bank, in turn, deposits it in its account with the central bank. The checks inevitably end up as reserves of regular banks held in the central bank, due to the type of money involved. These checks, called central bank reserve currency, serve as demand deposits, or claims, against the central bank, so they will always form a part of its accounts.

Central bank reserve currency is the money of the banking sector; it is the type of money that the central bank and regular banks use to do business and settle balances with each other. Notably, regular banks with an excess of reserves lend these out to regular banks with insufficient reserves.

These asset purchases are called open market operations (OMO). Typically, the most common asset purchased by the central bank is government debt. This shows the close relationship between central banks and central governments, as central banks create money to finance government activity.

The customers of regular banks can withdraw their deposits in the form of physical currency. To fulfill this obligation, regular banks request delivery of physical currency from the central bank, which delivers it and draws down the regular bank’s balance of central bank reserve currency in its account at the central bank by the equivalent amount. Therefore, physical currency and central bank reserve currency—together comprising base money—comprise the monetary reserves of regular banks.

Because the customers of regular banks don’t typically request the use of all of the money in their accounts at once, regular banks make loans with an eye on having enough reserves to satisfy the volume of withdrawals and other uses of money that their customers make, rather than having enough reserves to fully satisfy its own demand deposit accounts, that is, all money that customers could demand immediately. If the central bank creates new money and increases the reserves of a regular bank by purchasing an asset from it, the regular bank will, in turn, create even more new money by making loans far in excess of the amount of new reserves it receives. Regular banks and their customers do business with each other, so money is constantly being multiplied on top of reserves, since with each new deposit regular banks receive they will look to create new loans as well. This process is known as fractional-reserve banking, since regular bank reserves are only a small fraction of the deposit liabilities that they owe.

This core system of money creation represents an inverted pyramid. The central bank pyramids central bank reserve currency on top of its ability to create physical currency. The regular banks then pyramid demand deposit accounts on top of their stock of central bank reserve currency.

Other Monetary Policy Tools:

Reserve Requirements — The central bank has the legal regulatory power over the proportion of reserves that regular banks must keep. This power can affect monetary policy, with higher reserve requirements leading to a lower supply of money, and lower reserve requirements leading to a higher supply of money.

Deposit Insurance — The central bank guarantees the deposits of customers of regular banks up to a certain limit. The purpose of this tool is to attempt to prevent bank runs, where customers perceive that a regular bank is operating on a basis of insolvency, without enough reserves to meet their demand deposit obligations, and so the customers attempt to retrieve their money from the stock of reserves that the bank does possess. The central bank guaranteeing these accounts can give more stability to a system of fractional reserve banking, yet it also creates moral hazard.

Discount Window — The central bank has the power to lend central bank reserve currency to regular banks through the discount window. This was the main initial justification for the creation of central banks, to act as a “lender of last resort” to regular banks if they got in trouble. As such, the central bank typically sets the interest rate in this market higher than the rate regular banks will charge each other on loans of central bank reserve currency. This is to ensure its place as an emergency option.

Paying Interest on Reserves — A relatively recent addition to the central bank toolkit is the policy of paying interest on central bank reserve currency held by regular banks in accounts at the central bank. The purpose of this tool is to allow the central bank to purchase assets without a strong impact on price inflation or interest rates. The central bank creates new central bank reserve currency and injects it into the system, but as long as the central bank pays a higher interest rate on reserves held with it, than the rate regular banks earn by loaning reserves to one another, regular banks will deposit much of these new reserves at the central bank to earn this higher rate. This means regular banks are having less of a multiplying effect on the new money, and price inflation is consequently lower than it would otherwise be. Also, the central bank can affect the rate regular banks charge each other on loans of reserves by changing the rate that it pays on reserves parked at the central bank.

Types of Asset Purchased — The different types of asset purchased by the central bank will have different types of effects on monetary policy and the wider economy. All else being equal, the central bank purchasing gold will tend to bolster the credibility and stability of the national currency. The central bank purchasing more government debt will finance increased activity by the government. The central bank purchasing a specific class of assets from a firm will boost that firm itself, as well as the sector of the economy in which it operates.

The Repo Market — Repo refers in shorthand to repurchase agreements. These are a method of short-term financing, where a firm sells assets, typically government bonds, and agrees to repurchase them at a date in the near future for a slightly higher price. The price difference constitutes an interest rate as a function of time preference. The central bank intervenes in the repo market through open market operations and lending facilities, using central bank reserve currency. These interventions affect the supply of money, and consequently the interest rate in the repo market.

Conclusion

This article provides an overview of the modern system of banking and money creation. As an overview, I believe it to be accurate, but there is obviously more detail to the processes described above, and there are further tools employed by the central bank to create money and influence the wider banking system. There are also many problems with this system. For one, the ability to create money out of nothing and loan it out at interest requires the creation of more money down the line to repay the principal and interest. This is one of the concepts filed under the historically vague term of usury.

Thankfully, alternative ideas also exist that would avoid the problems of our present system. For a full discussion of the modern system of banking and money creation, its problems, and sound alternatives, I would recommend starting with Robert Murphy’s Understanding Money Mechanics. Another excellent text is Murray Rothbard’s The Case Against the Fed.

 


Originally Posted at https://mises.org/


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.