Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory


446 
WTNT23 KNHC 062034
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  38.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  38.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  38.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N  39.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N  41.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.6N  43.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N  44.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N  46.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N  47.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N  51.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  38.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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