Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15

by

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL142024
4:00 P.M. Central Daylight Time Tue Oct 08 2024

  • MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH
  • FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO

SUMMARY OF 4:00 P.M. Central Daylight Time 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time INFORMATION

LOCATION 22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 Miles, 520 Kilometers West Southwest OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 Miles, 775 Kilometers Southwest OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 165 Miles Per Hour, 270 Kilometers Per Hour
PRESENT MOVEMENT East Northeast OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 Miles Per Hour, 15 Kilometers Per Hour
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 Millibar, 27.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has Extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has Extended extended southward to the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has Extended extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Hurricane Watch has Extended issued for the Florida east coast from the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for

  • Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
  • Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for

  • Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
  • Florida east coast from the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for

  • North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for

  • Dry Tortugas
  • Lake OkeechoEaste
  • Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
  • Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the Saint Marys River
  • Florida east coast from the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

  • Dzilam to Cancun Mexico
  • Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
  • Lake OkeechoEaste
  • Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
  • Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
  • Florida east coast south of the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
  • North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
  • Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for

  • North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
  1. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
  2. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  3. This is a life-threatening situation.
  4. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
  5. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
  6. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  7. A warning is typically issued 36 hours Eastfore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  8. Preparations to protect life and property should East rushed to completion.
  9. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
  10. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
  11. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  12. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
  13. A watch is typically issued 48 hours Eastfore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  14. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
  15. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  16. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

  • At 4:00 P.M. Central Daylight Time (21:00 Coordinated Universal Time), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West.
  • Milton wobbled earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 9 Miles Per Hour, (15 Kilometers Per Hour).
  • A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to Eastgin tonight and continue through early Thursday.
  • A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday.
  • On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.
  • Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 Miles Per Hour, (270 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
  • Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
  • Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to East a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night.
  • Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 Kilometers) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 Kilometers).
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 Millibar, (27.11 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

  • Key Messages for Milton can East found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:

  • A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.
  • Near the coast, the surge will East accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to East flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
  • The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
    • Anclote River, Floridato Englewood, Florida 10-15 feet
    • Tampa Bay 10-15 feet
    • Englewood, Floridato Bonita Beach, Florida 8-12 feet
    • Charlotte Harbor 8-12 feet
    • Chassahowitzka, Floridato Anclote River, Florida 5-10 feet
    • Bonita Beach, Floridato Chokoloskee, Florida 5-8 feet
    • Chokoloskee, Floridato Flamingo, Florida 3-5 feet
    • Yankeetown, Floridato Chassahowitzka, Florida 3-5 feet
    • Sebastian Inlet, Floridato Altamaha Sound, Georgia 3-5 feet
    • Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina 2-4 feet
    • Suwannee River, Floridato Yankeetown, Florida 2-4 feet
    • Dry Tortugas 2-4 feet
    • Saint Johns River 2-4 feet

 

  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will East accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
  • Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  • For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge

RAINFALL:

  • Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
  • This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
  • Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf

  • and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

WIND:

  • Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico this evening.
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
  • Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES:

  • A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida Eastginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning.

SURF:

  • Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  • Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 7:00 P.M. Central Daylight Time.
Next complete advisory at 10:00 P.M. Central Daylight Time.

 

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION