Hurricane Milton Public Advisory

924
WTNT34 KNHC 081154
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL142024
7:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time Tue Oct 08 2024
  • HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
  • RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON’S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS
SUMMARY OF 7:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time 12:00 Coordinated Universal Time INFORMATION
LOCATION22.5  North 88.8  West
ABOUT 100 Miles, 165 Kilometers Northeast OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 Miles, 880 Kilometers Southwest OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 145 Miles Per Hour, 230 Kilometers Per Hour
PRESENT MOVEMENT East Northeast OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 Miles Per Hour, 19 Kilometers Per Hour
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 Millibar, 27.43 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
  • A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River.
  • A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.
  • The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings south of Celestun.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
  • West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
  • East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
  • Celestun to Rio Lagartos
  • Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
  • Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for
  • Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
  • Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
  • Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
  • Dry Tortugas
  • Lake Okeechobee
  • Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
  • Rio Lagartos to Cancun
  • All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
  • Lake Okeechobee
  • Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
  • Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass
  • Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo
  • Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
  • Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
  1. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
  2. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  3. This is a life-threatening situation. 
  4. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
  5. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
  6. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  7. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  8. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
  9. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
  10. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
  11. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  12. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
  13. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  14. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
  15. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
  16. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  17. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  • At 7:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time (12:00 Coordinated Universal Time), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West.
  • Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 Miles Per Hour, (19 Kilometers Per Hour).
  • A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday.
  • On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.
  • The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 145 Miles Per Hour, (230 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
  • Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
  • While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
  • Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 Kilometers ) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 Kilometers ).
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 929 Millibar, (27.43 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:
  • A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.
  • Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
  • The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
    • Anclote River, Florida to Englewood, Florida 10-15 feet
    • Tampa Bay 10-15 feet
    • Englewood, Florida to Bonita Beach, Florida 6-10 feet
    • Charlotte Harbor 6-10 feet
    • Yankeetown, Florida to Anclote River, Florida 5-10 feet
    • Bonita Beach, Florida to Chokoloskee, Florida 4-7 feet
    • Suwannee River, Florida to Yankeetown, Florida 3-5 feet
    • Chokoloskee, Florida to Flamingo, Florida 3-5 feet
    • Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia 3-5 feet
  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
  • Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  • For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge

RAINFALL:
  • Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
  • This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along with moderate to major river flooding.
  • Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.
  • In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf 

and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero

WIND:
  • Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in Mexico today.
  • Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in tropical storm warning area today.
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday.
  • Hurricane conditions are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning late Wednesday afternoon.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.
  • Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
TORNADOES:
  • A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
SURF:
  • Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  • Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 10:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time.
$$
Forecaster Berg

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


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