NHC
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092055
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL142024
5:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME Wed Oct 09 2024
- MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
- LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
SUMMARY OF 5:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME 21:00 Coordinated Universal Time INFORMATION
LOCATION 26.9 NORTH 83.4 WEST
ABOUT 60 Miles 100 Kilometers West Southwest OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 Miles 275 Kilometers S0uthwest OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 Miles Per Hour, 195 Kilometers Per Hour
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 Miles Per Hour, 28 Kilometers Per Hour
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 Millibar, 28.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the Saint Marys River, and for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach have been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
Saint Johns River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
Florida east coast from the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Lake Okeechobee
Florida east coast from the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay Lake Okeechobee
Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
Florida east coast south of the Saint Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 5:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (21:00 Coordinated Universal Time), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West.
Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 Miles Per Hour, (28 Kilometers Per Hour), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 Miles Per Hour, (195 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday.
Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 Kilometers) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 Kilometers).
A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 Miles Per Hour, (82 Kilometers Per Hour) with a wind gust of 63 Miles Per Hour, (102 Kilometers Per Hour).
A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 Miles Per Hour, (76 Kilometers Per Hour) with a wind gust of 62 Miles Per Hour, (100 Kilometers Per Hour).
The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 Millibar, (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
Anna Maria Island, FLORIDA to Boca Grande, FLORIDA 9-13 feet
Anclote River, FLORIDA to Anna Maria Island, FLORIDA 6-9 feet
Tampa Bay 6-9 feet
Boca Grande, FLORIDA to Bonita Beach, FLORIDA 8-12 feet
Charlotte Harbor 8-12 feet
Bonita Beach, FLORIDA to Chokoloskee, FLORIDA 5-8 feet
Chokoloskee, FLORIDA to Flamingo, FLORIDA 3-5 feet
Sebastian Inlet, FLORIDA to Altamaha Sound, Georgia 3-5 feet
Yankeetown, FLORIDA to Anclote River, FLORIDA 2-4 feet
Dry Tortugas 2-4 feet
Saint Johns River 2-4 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL:
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf
and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast this evening or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES:
Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida.
SURF:
Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 8:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.
Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
Forecaster Berg
