Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory


043 
WTNT21 KNHC 200252
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  72.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT.......  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  72.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  71.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N  74.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N  75.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N  75.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N  74.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  72.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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