Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 202042
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  74.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   5SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  74.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  74.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N  75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N  75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N  75.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N  75.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N  73.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.2N  72.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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