Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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