Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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