Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 6A


000
WTNT33 KNHC 050541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
100 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL APPROACHING JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 77.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 77.6 West.  Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A 
generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few 
days.  On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near 
Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, 
and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 
hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further
strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle
of Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica through this morning and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in
the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week.  Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected.  Flooding and mudslides could
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States by mid to late week.  Rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF:  Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


  • NHC

    Related Posts

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    At a recent pre-election speaking and podcast event, comedian and Libertarian political commentator Dave Smith expressed his view that it is very realistic that the next President Donald Trump could successfully negotiate an end to the Ukraine war

    Smith’s view is optimistic, as he articulated that he believes Trump’s expressed desire to end wars in Ukraine and Gaza is genuine. But Smith also laid out that much depends on who Trump puts around him in top national security positions. Below is the hard-hitting segment featuring the prominent commentator addressing the question: will Trump be able to end the war in Ukraine?

    Below are Dave Smith’s words from the segment on Trump and Ukraine below [emphasis ZH]…

    “Why the hell are we even expanding our military alliance to Ukraine? And listen, Donald Trump always says that the war ‘never would have happened if I was president, and I would negotiate an end to this.’

    And I gotta say I think he’s right about that. I don’t think the war would have happened if he was president – I think he will negotiate an end to it.

    I don’t think he’s right that Hamas wouldn’t have attacked Israel if he was president – that seems kind of ridiculous to me. But he’s right: the Ukraine war could be over tomorrow if American wanted to negotiated a peace to it.

    Vladimir Putin has been trying to the entire time… 

    Well the question becomes who does Donald Trump put around him? If Donald Trump puts Mike Pompeo, aka Liz Cheney’s pick for Defense Secretary… if he puts John Bolton, aka Hillary Clinton’s pick for national security adviser – then maybe not, maybe it doesn’t happen.

    But if he listens to Tucker Carlson, and ‘Bobby’ Kennedy, and Vivek Ramaswamy, and all the smart people around him – then yes, he could negotiate an end to that war.”

    Image source: Reason

    * * *

    Indeed, the question ultimately becomes: will Trump really keep the ‘swamp’ out of his administration this time around? We hope so.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 11/06/2024 – 18:00

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

    …CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA… …6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE…
    As of 6:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6
    the center of Rafael was located near 23.0, -83.0
    with movement NW at 14 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 962 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

    You Missed

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 2 views

    Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant; Set to Fire Military Chiefs

    Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant; Set to Fire Military Chiefs

    Iranian currency falls to historic low after Donald Trump named next president of the United States

    Iranian currency falls to historic low after Donald Trump named next president of the United States

    The View Goes FULL Meltdown: Disney’s TDS Election Response Is UNHINGED – But Joy Behar Subdued!

    • By WDWPro
    • November 6, 2024
    • 2 views
    The View Goes FULL Meltdown: Disney’s TDS Election Response Is UNHINGED – But Joy Behar Subdued!

    Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 2 views