Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 072033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  85.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.7N  87.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.7N  89.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N  90.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N  91.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N  92.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.7N  93.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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