Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 072033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  85.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.7N  87.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.7N  89.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N  90.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N  91.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N  92.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.7N  93.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

zerohedge
Economics , News , Politics , Science
November 7, 2024
2 views

Putin Praises ‘Courageous’ Trump & Hints At Ukraine Talks, Phone Call Likely

It appears President Vladimir Putin is jumping at the opportunity of pursuing a serious reset with the United States under the future Trump presidency. In surprisingly positive Thursday remarks, Putin issued congratulatory statements and heaped praise on Trump for winning the election, also saying he acted “like a man” following the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania last summer.

“His behavior at the time of the attempt on his life made an impression on me,” Putin said at the Valdai Club in the Black Sea city of Sochi. “He turned out to be a courageous man. And it’s not just about the raised hand and the call to fight for his and their common ideals… He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a man.”

Significantly these were the very first public remarks given by Putin after the Tuesday election. The Russian leader emphasized that Trump’s campaign promises to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war “deserve attention”. Putin further highlighted Trump’s desire to improve relations with Moscow as a major plus as part of the remarks.

Via TASS

“It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said. “I have always said that we will work with any head of state who has the trust of the American people.”

Without doubt, these mark the warmest words issued by Putin regarding the spiraling US relationship in years, and certainly the most positive remarks since the invasion of February 2022. Rhetoric between Moscow and Washington have over the course of the war up to now been marked by severe accusations and even veiled nuclear threats.

And importantly, Putin signaled he might speak to Trump, per state media:

Putin congratulated Trump on his win, and said that he is open to a phone call with the president-elect. “It wouldn’t be beneath me to call him myself,” Putin added.

The US-President elect has in turn told NBC the following:

President-elect Donald Trump said that Vladimir Putin wasn’t among the “probably” 70 phone conversations he has held with world leaders since winning the election, but that he still is planning to speak with the Russian president, according to NBC News.

“I think we’ll speak,” Trump told NBC, Thursday, the news organization said.

This type of positive dialogue while the Ukraine war rages was unthinkable under the Biden-Harris administration, and for that reason the Kremlin was very closely watching the US election.

Interestingly, despite their recent subtle tensions, Ukraine’s Zelensky and President-elect Trump have spoken in the wake of the landslide election victory. Trump confirmed to NBC that Zelensky was among the congratulatory phone calls from world leaders he’s received so far since Tuesday.

President Zelensky also issued a congratulatory statement on X, expressing hope he could work with Trump to implement “peace through strength” and that his country was “interested in developing mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation that will benefit both of our nations.”

Ukrainian soldiers SHOOT a mannequin wearing a TRUMP SHIRT.

Are they upset that American funds will end?pic.twitter.com/1Ic86hcddf

— Resist the Mainstream (@ResisttheMS) November 7, 2024

However, following this, in a Thursday press briefing, Zelensky sought to pour cold water on the potential for a quick peace:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy poured cold water Thursday on a plan by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to strike a rapid peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, arguing it would amount to a “loss” for Ukraine.

“I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision” to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Zelenskyy told journalists in Budapest. “He wants that. It doesn’t mean that it will happen this way.”

He complained that a rapid ceasefire would be tantamount to “preparation to ruin and destroy our independence.” Below are more of Zelensky’s words aimed at Trump, revealing serious tensions remain, given in Budapest:

“He [Trump] wants this war to be finished,” Zelenskyy said through an interpreter. “We all want to end this war, but a fair ending … If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.”

The Ukrainian leader also responded to an appeal from Hungarian strongman Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, issued minutes earlier from the same stage, for a rapid ceasefire deal between the two warring camps.

“I heard that it’s better to implement a ceasefire and then, ‘we’ll see,’” Zelenskyy said, referring to Orbán’s comments. “[A] ceasefire was tried back in 2014. We tried to reach this ceasefire and we lost Crimea and then we had the full-scale invasion.”

But for several months as Ukrainian forces have suffered a string of defeats in Donetsk, putting the Russian army on the brink of capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk, there have been signs that behind the scenes Western diplomats have actually been increasing the pressure on Kiev to find an exit strategy – sooner rather than later.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/07/2024 – 18:00