Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

612 
WTNT24 KNHC 140233
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  80.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  80.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  79.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N  82.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N  83.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N  84.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N  85.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N  85.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N  85.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N  86.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N  89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  80.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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