882 WTNT34 KNHC 150252 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION