Record-high home prices, combined with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassing 7% once again, continue to create the worst housing affordability environment in a generation. Consequently, the residential renovation market sours, pressuring home furnishing companies to offer better deals.
A team of Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane updated their proprietary home furnishings promotional tracker for November, in which they found increased promotions, markdowns, and free shipping across the industry for notable home furnishings retailers including Arhaus, At Home, Bassett Furniture, Cost Plus World Market, Crate & Barrel, Ethan Allen Interiors, Havertys, Kirkland’s, Pottery Barn, PB Teen, Pottery Barn Kids, Rejuvenation, Wayfair, and West Elm.
McShane noted that average markdowns were slightly higher for the industry year-over-year last month, although Williams-Sonoma was one of the only home furnishings retailers not offering increased deals to somewhat flattish compared with the same month last year.
Here are the key observations from their findings:
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Free shipping ticked up sequentially and year over year in November across the industry and Williams Sonoma banners;
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Markdowns increased sequentially and year over year across the industry;
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Promotions are notably higher sequentially and year over year at the Williams Sonoma banner, while promotions are lower at West Elm and Rejuvenation
Industry-wide, markdowns increased month-over-month and year-over-year, with PB Kids and Wayfair offering the best deals.
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November’s industry markdowns increased both m/m and y/y: Sequentially, the average markdown across the industry increased m/m at 40% in Nov vs. 37%/37%/41% in Oct/Sep/Aug. The average markdown increased y/y compared to 39% in Nov ’23.
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Markdown level by company: Overall, PB Kids (58%) and Wayfair (58%) were the companies with the highest average markdowns in Nov ’24. PB Teen, Rejuvenation, and West Elm had the highest markdowns on a 1-year average (also taking account of consistency in promotions over the months).
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Free shipping: Overall days of free shipping increased both sequentially and y/y in Nov ’24 to 14 days, vs. 9/13 days in Oct’ 24/Nov ’23. Kirkland’s, Pottery Barn, and Williams-Sonoma offered free shipping every day in Nov ’24, with the next highest frequency seen at PB Kids’s at 29 days.
McShane noted, “While we don’t include RH in our promotional analysis, we do note the company continues to advertise its fall clearance sale with up to 60% off outdoor, living, dining, and bedroom items.”
Average Markdowns on a retailer basis:
Pottery Barn
West Elm
Williams-Sonoma
Rejuvenation
The number of days home furnishings companies offered ‘free shipping’ last month surged.
Williams-Sonoma’s free shipping promotion was much higher than the industry average.
The entire industry has been in the dumps since the Covid spike.
And this is why.
McShane highlighted that the barometer for the residential renovation market remains uninspiring.
Given all this, there are indeed deals for patient consumers who held back during the Covid surge in home renovations. Goldman’s McShane gives readers a broad understanding of what home furnishings companies offer the best deals.
Mises
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