The Mises-Hoiles Correspondence: What Might Have Been
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The Mises-Hoiles Correspondence: What Might Have Been


From 1949 to 1962, two libertarian giants exchanged several letters until a sharp conflict caused the correspondence to cease abruptly. An American entrepreneur and a staunch libertarian-anarchist, Raymond Cyrus (R.C.) Hoiles (1878–1970) established an impressive newspaper syndicate that would eventually become known as Freedom Newspapers, Inc.—the largest libertarian communications network to date. The other, iconic Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is so well-known as to require no introduction.

(The letters have not been edited except to correct minor points of spelling and grammar. A link to the unedited letters has been provided for full context).

September 7, 1949

On September 7, 1949, Hoiles wrote to Mises via the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), where Mises was a part-time staff member. Hoiles congratulated him on the recently published English translation of his masterpiece Human Action:

“I think you have furnished complete ammunition to refute any socialist’s or interventionist’s arguments. I have remarked several times that your observation on the causes of the decline of ancient civilizations–a little over two pages–was worth the price of the book to anyone.”

True to his crusty nature, however, Hoiles also told Mises where the book went wrong. The first issue Hoiles raised was one about which he was passionate: the immorality of tax-funded public education. A “rather serious” contradiction occurred on page 872, Hoiles advised:

…where you make this statement: “In countries which are not harassed by struggles between various linguistic groups, public education can work very well if it is limited to reading, writing, and arithmetic.” I have repeatedly contended that even if public education was limited to these branches, the fact that some people were compelled to pay who did not want to have their children taught or who had no children, was teaching by example that the majority had a right to coerce the minority to pay for anything the majority wanted.

This contradicted the rest of the book, Hoiles argued, by promoting the double standard that it was wrong for individuals to initiate force but legitimate for governments to do so.

“Understand,” Hoiles continued, “I am not opposed to the use of force to stop someone from initiating force, but… the only purpose of a government is to stop people from intervening in an unhampered market and to stop people from initiating force.” Hoiles called the error “so serious that I think you should have a little slip printed up correcting this and have it put in the back of the book.” Hoiles considered this to be such a grave matter because “public schools are bound to destroy the country because they create public opinion that sanctions and endorses government intervention in an unhampered market.”

Hoiles enclosed a check for $90 to buy 9 copies of Human Action for his columnists to read. He also included an article entitled “Public Schools and Unemployment” which he claimed was “in complete refutation of your statement that ‘public schools can work very well if they are limited to reading and writing and arithmetic’.”

September 8, 1949

On September 8, Hoiles sent an afterthought letter to address minor issues, which included a copy of a letter from Leonard Read, founder of FEE:

…to a big industrialist friend on how far public education should go…Any education that does not teach the pupil who is learning to read and write that there are certain immutable laws that govern human relations can do a great deal more harm than good. The world would have been better off if such men as Stalin and Hitler and Roosevelt and even Dewey…never had learned to read. They could not have been such successful demagogues if they could not read.

September 23, 1949

On September 23, Mises responded with the courtliness for which he was renowned. After thanking Hoiles for his “kind appreciation of Human Action,” Mises went straight to the “difference of opinion” between them:

I want to emphasize that I did not express any opinion…of whether or not public education, when limited to the three R’s, is a good or a bad thing. I merely stated the fact that it can work very well in countries not harassed by struggles between various linguistic groups. Why it is a disintegrating factor in countries in which there prevails a struggle between linguistic groups I pointed out in 1919 in my book Nation, Staat und Wirtschaft, and then again in 1927 in my book Liberalism, pages 100-102. (These two books are not available in English-language translations.) I omitted in Human Action any reference to this problem because it has no application to present-day America. I proceeded only to point out why public education, as soon as it begins to deal with matters implying social, economic and political doctrines, leads to an impasse which must transform the schools into instruments of political indoctrination and propaganda.

Thus, Mises foreshadowed the culture wars now raging in public schools.

Next, Mises moved on to Hoiles’s second major objection: the impropriety of majority rule. Mises began, “You question the right of the majority of citizens to make a man pay for what he doesn’t want…” He continued with the observation, “Now it is a fact that the written or unwritten constitutions of all free nations were and are based on the principle of decision by vote of the majority,” with one telling exception: “I know only of one exception, the notorious ‘liberum veto’ of the members of the Polish nobility (before 1791.) It is agreed by all students of history that this ‘liberum veto’ was one of the major causes of old Poland’s downfall.”

Mises next ventured into an area Hoiles knew well and often seemed to treat in a proprietary manner. “The Constitution of the United States as well as the Constitutions of all 48 states have adopted the majority principle,” Mises claimed. “As far as I know nobody ever advocated the substitution of the unanimity principle for the majority principle.” Any objections “raised against those duly promulgated statute laws which you and I both consider as harmful,” he continued, “cannot be justified by recourse to an alleged principle of unanimity. They must be based on the effects to be brought about by such laws. What I tried to demonstrate in my book is that interventionism and socialism are bad because they must inevitably result in the disintegration of social cooperation, in impoverishment, in material and capital decay and in the destruction of our civilization.”

As he did with praxeology—the study of human action—Mises based his analysis of laws on observation and logic, while Hoiles tended to argue the law based on morality, natural rights, and religion. “I do not believe that private control of the means of production and a free market economy are dogmas which must be accepted without proof,” Mises wrote. “I think that it is necessary to demonstrate why they are the only principles which can secure the preservation of a civilized and prosperous community of men. I think that it is necessary to show clearly why the socialists’ and interventionists’ declarations to the contrary are erroneous and why the adoption of their ideas must inevitably spell disaster.”

September 30, 1949

Hoiles’s letter of September 30 is apparently addressed to Mises’s home. In it, the publisher’s bull terrier side emerged:

The English language doesn’t mean a thing if you say you were not expressing an opinion of page 872 where you say: “In countries which are not harassed by struggles between various linguistic groups public education can work very well if it is limited to reading, writing, and arithmetic.” Does not the phrase “works very well” express a good thing, or what does “works very well” mean if it is not an endorsement?

Much of this letter is a restatement of arguments from the two earlier ones, namely, that public education teaches the young that “parents are not responsible for the support or education of their children and that the parents have a right to gang up and make those people who do not want public education pay for it.” Public schools also inculcate by example the beliefs that “we do not need to have a definite limited government, and that if the government has a right to force people to pay for an educational system that they believe will destroy the country, then the government has a right to do anything.”

Hoiles then predictably bristled about the contention that the US Constitution and those of the states “have adopted the majority principle.” Hoiles turned, as he often did in his writing, to “the first official doctrine of the United States government…the Declaration of Independence,” which reads:

All men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, –That to secure these rights, government are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

Hoiles drew Mises’s attention to the word “all,” which:

…includes everybody…. Notice also that it [the Declaration] says “deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” It does not say from the consent of the majority governed. And the word ‘consent’ certainly meant a voluntary agreement.

A mini lecture from Hoiles on majority rule followed. “If the US Constitution had adopted the majority principle,” he asked, then why did it specify “that each state should have the same number of senators no matter how different the number of people in each state? Then why did the Constitution specify that this condition could not be changed without the consent of every state, let alone the majority of two-thirds?” Hoiles concluded, “I am certainly glad that you didn’t put in your book some of the majority rule ideas” from your letter of September 23rd. “It certainly would have weakened your whole book.”

May 7, 1962

Either Mises did not respond, or his response is not readily available because the next letter leaps forward by 13 years when Hoiles once again wrote both to praise and to chastise Mises. This time Hoiles’s topic was an article by Mises which appeared in the April 3rd issue of Christian Economics under the title “A Dangerous Recommendation for High School Economics.” This piece is now available in Economic Freedom and Interventionism, which is both a primer of Misesean thought and an anthology of 47 of his writings edited by Bettina Bien Greaves.

“You had a splendid representation,” Hoiles opened, “with the exception of one paragraph, which I think greatly weakens your stand.” The Mises paragraph in question commented on a recently issued report:

In order to demonstrate the inferiority of the market economy as against government action, the report takes pleasure in affirming repeatedly that there are things that private enterprise cannot achieve, e.g., police protection and provision of national defense. This observation is entirely irrelevant. No reasonable man ever suggested that the essential function of state and government, protection of the smooth operation of the social system against domestic gangsters and foreign aggressors, should be entrusted to private business. The anarchists who wanted to abolish any governmental institution, as well as Marx and Engels who muttered about the ‘withering away’ of the state, were not champions of free enterprise….

Hoiles countered:

I happen to know several people who so believe. Robert LeFevre, the founder of the Freedom School…believes that the market place is the best way to protect life and property. F.A. Harper, Orval Watts, my son Harry Hoiles, Rose Wilder Lane, all certainly believe the Declaration of Independence is exactly what it says, because nobody can give a man’s consent but that individual himself.

Hoiles asked:

I cannot help but wonder what you use as a standard to determine whether or not a man is rational; that is, reasonable. You certainly do not use the Declaration of Independence or the Coveting Commandment or the Golden Rule, nor a precise definition of freedom. You seem to have your own interpretation of a reasonable man… I think you are completely out of harmony with the Declaration of Independence.

Hoiles also enclosed an editorial written by Robert LeFevre which was entitled “Democracy with a Small ‘d’.”

May 14, 1962

A week later, Mises referred Hoiles to:

…pages 46-51 of my book Omnipotent Government (1944)… Government is the social institution that has the exclusive power of resorting to violent action in order to prevent individuals from resorting to violence….As I see it, the absence of a governmental police power would result in a state of affairs in which everybody would have continually to defend himself against hosts of aggressors.

Mises noted that LeFevre’s editorial included a quotation from Human Action, but Mises went on to express deep disagreement with the arguments that followed. Mises commented to Hoiles;

I think you err in assuming that your principles are those of the Declaration of Independence. They are rather the principles that led a hundred years ago the Confederate States to refuse to recognize the President elected by the majority. Wherever and whenever resorted to, these principles will lead to bloodshed and anarchy.

May 21, 1962

The correspondence was becoming a clash of views, with little subtlety. Hoiles returned to advocating for the privatization of so-called essential government services. Sounding almost Rothbardian, Hoiles explained:

Insurance companies should take care of the fire department, and insurance companies should take care of protecting your life and property. and if you didn’t like the service the one insurance company was giving you, you would employ another insurance company to help protect your life and property. Of course, there is no such thing as absolute protection, but we’d get more protection by a voluntary basis than by the coercion of the majority.

Hoiles repeated two questions he had asked previously:

Would you have the majority determine what the government should do? If that’s the case, then where would you draw the line? Will you please answer those questions? Or admit that you will be the final arbitrator, and that instead of being governed by principles, you’re the one who is talking about anarchy. We’re getting very close to anarchy now.

Again, Hoiles used a postscript to correct Mises about misusing the word “anarchy” as a synonym for “chaos” when it actually meant “without a head or ruler.” The word anarchy “means that each man is owner of himself and all he produces, not more, no less.” Hoiles accused Mises of scaring people with his misuse of the word “anarchy.” “We are close to chaos now because people do not understand the importance of private property,” Hoiles protested, “and the most important private property anyone owns is himself, his freedom, and all he produces.” In short, he accused Mises of contributing to people’s misunderstanding of private property and, perhaps, of not understanding it himself.

Undated Letter

An undated letter from Mises dismissed the idea of private insurance companies protecting the life and property of their clients because each company would need to organize its own armed force. It was a brief dismissal.

As for the assertions in LeFevre’s article, Mises dwelt on one he clearly thought was absurd, perhaps to impress upon Hoiles the reason why he was not willing to engage in a more serious or lengthy discussion on this topic. Mises had rejected the same argument in his May 14th letter in which he stated,

Mr. LeFevre suggests that every voter should choose the President he prefers and should have this man of his choosing as his President, without any obligations as against those candidates whom other voters have chosen. Is this a workable idea? The President of the U.S. is the commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces and the supreme chief of all federal offices and their personnel. Can these functions be performed by a multiplicity of Presidents?

Clearly, Mises believed the answer was “no.” In fairness, however, the two men were discussing different models of government. Hoiles would not have accepted anyone as the commander in chief of the US armed forces and the supreme chief of all federal offices and their personnel.

In the follow-up undated message, Mises accurately observed that Hoiles had shifted ground somewhat in suggesting that “different Presidents would undoubtedly get together and try to promote, or try to defend, men’s right to property.” But Mises also rejected this differing contention, writing,

May I remark: a) what will happen if they disagree with one another? Will then the majority of this presidential gathering determine the outcome? b) Is it realistic to assume that…the candidate for whom the majority voted will ‘try to promote, or try to defend men’s right to property’?

Mises obviously concluded that further debate would render few benefits. He ended:

Concerning the problems of majority rule I have nothing to add to what I have said in my books Omnipotent Government, on page 50, Human Action, on pages 148-150. Of course, as you think that I do not understand the importance of private property, I have nothing more to tell you.

May 23, 1962

The apparently dauntless Hoiles replied with another enclosed editorial by LeFevre and some remarks critical of Mises. Hoiles opened by reproving Mises for segregating economics from morals—areas that Hoiles believed must be integrated. He enlisted Leonard Read as back-up, writing, “Leonard Read said if he had it to do over again, he would call his organization The Foundation for Moral Education instead of The Foundation for Economic Education.”

After rehashing the definition of anarchism, Hoiles made a lamentable comment:

You are doing so much good that I hate to see you continue to advocate any form of socialism or any form of tyranny. And when you are advocating that the free market is not the better way of protecting men’s lives and property, I think you are seriously in error, if we can judge by man’s historical experience.

June 1, 1962

Mises’s final correspondence is terse. He had drafted a reply to Hoiles’s May 21st missive, Mises stated, when he received the one of May 23rd. Enough was enough. Mises’s farewell line to Hoiles: “As you charge me in this letter with advocating socialism and tyranny, I consider it as useless to continue our correspondence.”

June 18, 1962

Perhaps in an attempt to retrieve a relationship he valued, Hoiles opened a letter by acknowledging Mises’s “many honors and degrees,” and declaring his desire “to continue to try to integrate and harmonize my beliefs and make them consistent.” Hoiles wanted to iron out any inconsistencies he might be harboring. As palpable evidence of his sincerity, Hoiles asked, “how much would you charge per answer to questions on your political, economic and moral beliefs, where your answer, to the best of your ability, is to be limited to not over 50 words.”

In a tone deaf manner, a postscript mentioned another enclosure—namely, “a Verifax copy of a letter from Robert LeFevre, stating his thoughts regarding my position in my May 23 letter to you.” I can only imagine Mises’s reaction to knowing his personal correspondence was being passed around for comment.

No further response by Mises, if any occurred, seems to be available.

Quite apart from who was correct or not on specific issues, the Mises-Hoiles correspondence spotlighted and revolved around extreme differences in the personalities of the two men. Hoiles was an overly blunt firecracker of an American Midwesterner; Mises was a courtly European scholar. Some of the points—for example, does anarchy mean chaos? – could have evolved into interesting exchanges but the schism between how each man approached ideas was too wide for this to happen. This is a shame. Since both men placed such a high value on truth, reason, and intellectual consistency, their differences could have been fascinating rather than divisive.

 


Originally Posted at https://mises.org/


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

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