RONEN SHOVAL: Europe will die if it can’t confront Islamic extremism
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RONEN SHOVAL: Europe will die if it can’t confront Islamic extremism


More than 1,000 people have been arrested in the last few days during the riots across England. Even Indonesia has issued travel warnings for England—a troubling sign that something is profoundly amiss in Europe.

The migration crisis, particularly the influx of Muslim immigrants who often resist assimilation, is unraveling the very fabric of European society. This deep rift has exposed the inherent weaknesses in the postwar European project, prompting urgent questions about the continent’s future. Europe, once a bastion of stability, now finds itself in a state of disarray, with parallels to the fall of another great civilization, the Roman Empire.

For centuries, the Roman Empire was the world’s most formidable power – but it began to disintegrate when it could no longer defend its borders against the influx of barbarian tribes. These tribes, lured by the promise of prosperity within the empire, gradually eroded Rome’s power from within.

Many of these tribes were allowed to settle as allies in exchange for military service. However, they often retained their own leadership and loyalties, undermining the cohesion of the Roman army. Over time, these groups, such as the Visigoths, began to exert significant influence, even pressuring the Empire for better land and resources. This collapse of military integrity led to critical defeats, culminating in the Visigoths’ sacking of Rome in 410 AD. By 476 AD, the once-mighty Western Roman Empire had collapsed entirely.

History, it seems, has a way of repeating itself. Just as the Roman Empire struggled to maintain unity in the face of internal divisions and external pressures, so too did Europe in the aftermath of two world wars. Recognizing the dangers of division, Europe’s leaders envisioned a new political order to prevent internal conflicts. Much like royal marriages in the Middle Ages, the idea was to lower the walls of enmity by fostering closeness.

The European Union, with its supranational governance, common currency, and open borders, was designed to transcend the perilous nationalism that had torn Europe apart in the first half of the 20th century. This vision was anchored in a deep commitment to liberal values—democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—while simultaneously rejecting the destructive nationalisms of the past. The belief was that by blurring national lines and promoting diversity, Europe could forge a more inclusive and harmonious society.

However, this grand vision contained the seeds of its own downfall, much like the Tower of Babel. Europe’s attempt to build a unified political and economic entity devoid of a shared moral foundation has led to confusion and fragmentation, rather than unity. The postmodern rejection of absolute truths, which underpinned the European project, has fostered moral relativism and eroded the sense of justice and the willingness to defend the future.

Europe’s economic and cultural prosperity has made it a magnet for immigrants. The European ideals of inclusivity and diversity are noble and form the foundation of the Pax Europa that followed World War II. However, the European Union’s pacifist vision, which nurtures a life of comfort, takes the achievements of the past for granted. As a result, Europe not only fails to recognize that there are those who seek to exploit its values to advance totalitarian agendas, but it also refuses to use military force to maintain its place in the world.

Moreover, the prosperity that Europe enjoyed attracted those who sought to benefit from its advantages without integrating into its social fabric. These migrants, instead of assimilating, have often sought to transform Europe from within. Unlike previous waves of immigrants, many among the recent Muslim influx have shown little interest in integrating into the European vision. Instead, they often seek to impose their own values on their host countries, leading to escalating friction and, in some instances, outright violence. The rise of Islamist extremism in Europe is not merely a security threat; it is the symptom of a deeper cultural crisis. Europe, having lost confidence in its own identity, is now struggling to defend the very values it professes to uphold.

For instance, the 2015 Paris attacks highlighted the dangers of homegrown radicalization, with most of the attackers being European citizens radicalized within their own communities. The ongoing challenges in regions like Molenbeek, Belgium, where jihadist networks have thrived, reveal how certain areas have become breeding grounds for extremism due to failed integration policies. Additionally, France’s struggle with Islamist radicalization is a stark example of how deeply entrenched this issue has become, with socio-economic and identity challenges exacerbating the situation.

Muslim thinkers refer to the penetration into Europe using the terms “Hijra” and “Taqiyya.” “Hijra” describes strategic migration aimed at spreading Islam and gaining religious and political influence, while “Taqiyya” involves concealing true intentions until a position of strength is achieved. Together, these concepts enable Muslims to integrate into European society while gradually increasing their influence. Meanwhile, the European system of individual and human rights remains powerless in the face of this phenomenon. It finds it easier to act against Europeans defending their identity than against those who seek to dismantle Europe. This reflects an autoimmune failure, where the very principles meant to protect European society are instead contributing to its decline.

The recent riots in England, following a tragic stabbing incident, illustrate the complexity of this issue. While the far-right’s reaction was misdirected in blaming Muslims for the attack, the underlying tension stems from a broader unease about the influence of Islam in Europe. The concern is not merely about isolated acts of violence but about the long-term impact of Islamic values on European culture and identity. As certain segments of the Muslim population in Europe push for changes that align more with Islamic principles, the reaction from native Europeans, whether misguided or not, becomes more predictable. This cyclical dynamic, where attempts to defend European identity clash with efforts to promote Islamic values, is at the heart of the current cultural and social tensions.

As Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and a Deputy Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates explains, “There will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists coming out of Europe because of the lack of decision-making, trying to be politically correct, or assuming that they know the Middle East and Islam far better than we do. And I’m sorry, but that is pure ignorance.”

Just as Rome’s expansion ultimately led to its downfall, the very post-national ideals designed to unify Europe are now contributing to its fragmentation. The Bible, particularly the vision of Jeremiah, offers a profound counterpoint to this dilemma. Jeremiah’s prophecy envisions a time when the Mount of the Lord’s House shall stand firm above the mountains, and all nations shall stream to it, not to forge political unity, but to seek moral guidance. “Come, let us go up to the Mount of the Lord, to the House of the God of Jacob,” say the nations, “that God may instruct us in God’s ways, and that we may walk in God’s paths.”

This vision recognizes the enduring existence of different nations, each maintaining its identity, yet united by a shared commitment to moral principles. Peace is achieved not through political homogenization, but through moral unity. The nations remain distinct, yet they come together in Jerusalem, not to conquer, but to learn and to be guided by shared ethical values.

This stands in stark contrast to the postmodern, post-national project of the European Union, which seeks unity through political and economic integration. The biblical vision, as articulated by Jeremiah, offers a model of unity based on a shared commitment to moral and spiritual values, where peace is born from ethical solidarity rather than political centralization.

The failure of  Europe is not inevitable. However, to avert the fate of the Roman Empire and the collapse of the Tower of Babel, Europe must rediscover the moral and spiritual foundations that once underpinned its greatness. This necessitates a rejection of the postmodern relativism that has corroded its cultural identity and the adoption of a vision of unity rooted in shared ethical principles.

Europe is confronted with a stark choice. It can persist on its current path of post-nationalism and multiculturalism, thereby risking further fragmentation and decline, or it can endeavor to rebuild its identity on the basis of shared values that honor both the diversity of its nations and the imperative for a common moral foundation. The lessons of history are unequivocal: without a robust sense of identity and purpose, even the most powerful empires will crumble. Europe must choose wisely.

Ronen Shoval, an Israeli philosopher and dean of the Argaman Institute for Advanced Studies, is the author of, “Holiness and Society: A Socio-Political Exploration of the Mosaic Tradition” (Routledge Press), which explores the subtle political philosophy within the Biblical narrative.

This Story originally came from humanevents.com

 


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.