How the Federal Government Conquered Utah
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How the Federal Government Conquered Utah

[Unpopular Sovereignty: Mormons and the Federal Management of Early Utah Territory, by Brent M. Rogers, Nebraska University Press, 2017, xiv + 383 pp.]

Behind its clinical-sounding subtitle about “federal management,” Brent Rogers’s Unpopular Sovereignty contains essential history for understanding how American westward expansion paved the way for the growth of federal power during and after the American Civil War.

Contrary to the popular myth that the settlement of the trans-Mississippi frontier was a laissez-faire process with minimal federal involvement, Rogers shows how Congress and federal agents took a keen and active interest in asserting federal power and control into western territories in the 1850s.

Examples of this process can be found in Kansas, New Mexico, and in California, but we find especially instructive examples in the case of the federal government’s wars—both legislative and kinetic—against the Mormons of Utah Territory.

It is in this fight against the people of frontier territories that we see how the federal government began to assert a legal “right” to impose federal rule directly on Americans, enforced with federal courts and at the point of a bayonet.

American Fears of the Mormon “Threat” 

Rogers begins with the necessary task of establishing the extent to which Americans in the east regarded the so-called “Latter Day Saints” (LDS) movement as a true threat to the United States. This is difficult to grasp for many modern Americans who likely regard Mormons as extremely ordinary, white, thoroughly assimilated Americans. Mitt Romney, perhaps, comes to mind for many.

This image of Mormons as corn-fed polite middle Americans was certainly not common in the nineteenth century. Quite the opposite was true. Indeed, once the region we now call Utah was transferred from Mexico to the United States at the end of the US-Mexico war, the Mormons were on a path to series of increasingly bitter conflicts with the US government.

By the early 1850s, the Mormons—led by Brigham Young—faced mounting criticism from leaders in Congress over matters like polygamy, theocracy, Indian policy, and alleged Mormon disloyalty. At the heart of the matter was a belief among many American pundits, churchmen, and politicians that Mormons undermined the US government’s authority in the region. It was believed—not without reason—that the Mormons had substituted their own policy toward the local natives, which was separate from the policies approved in Congress. Moreover, it was believed that the Mormon system of government was “theocratic” and not “republican” as required by the so-called “guarantee clause” of the US Constitution. And then there was polygamy, which Rogers shows was routinely regarded in the American press as degrading of women and a threat to proper American values.

Rogers compiles in detail the repeated charges leveled at the Mormons for these asserted transgressions, noting, for example, that Congressman Justin Merrill of Vermont concluded that the Mormon leader Young “desired a kingly government” to impose “patriarchal, nonrepublican institutions.” Worse yet, many Americans—including many in Congress—suspected that that the Mormons in Utah Territory were uninterested in any lasting political union, and thus were likely to become secessionists or foreign agents. This was not a baseless accusation and many Mormon commentators at the time did suggest that the people of Deseret consider asserting full independence from the United States. As Rogers puts it, “Mormons jealously guarded their autonomy while their inclinations toward and ties to the United States were ambiguous at best.”

Consequently, many Americans also began to suggest that the US government send a federal army to abolish polygamy and to generally assert federal control over the Mormons. (In 1857, the proponents of federal invasion got their wish.)

The Fight over “Popular Sovereignty” 

The prospect of a federal invasion of the territory was a perennial fear of the Mormon leaders. By the mid-1850s, however, the Democratic Party handed Young and the Mormons a tool that they could use to defend themselves in Congress and in the American press. This was the doctrine of “popular sovereignty.”

Rogers shows Young repeatedly invoked the ideal of popular sovereignty in his correspondence with members of Congress and others. By using this strategy, Young was repurposing a political doctrine that had been used primarily as a means of dealing with national controversies over slavery.

After all, popular sovereignty was used primarily in the territories—i.e., parts of the US that were not states—as a means of defusing increasingly heated national rhetoric over slavery. Pushed primarily by Illinois Senator Stephen Douglas, the doctrine stated that the inhabitants of the territories could chose for themselves what laws they would live under. This was contrary to what had become standard practice in the territories in which the federal government appointed key local officials and exercised a veto over local laws and policies. Under the Missouri Compromise, it was also assumed that Congress would decide whether or not a territory would allow slavery.

Young asserted that if residents of the territories were free to choose their own policies on slavery, then the Mormons in Utah ought to also be free to choose their own laws in relation to marriage and their church. Although the Mormons had set up their own legislative bodies and courts, the federal government asserted control through federally appointed judges, governors, and other personnel. Federal officials reserved the right to ignore or overturn local laws deemed to be in conflict with the goals of Congress.

To what extent Mormons could rule themselves became a central question in both Utah and in Washington during the 1850s.

In examining this question over territorial self-rule, Rogers provides us with some historical research of great importance, and the question of Mormon sovereignty would turn out to be key in understanding how many Americans became comfortable with the idea of using federal military power against Americans citizens.

Rogers shows how by the late 1850s, the debate was largely over two positions. The first held that “the people [of the territory] are vested with indefeasible sovereignty” that cannot be abolished by any federal act. The second position held that “Congress is sovereign; that it can establish what form of government it pleases in a territory.” Many took a middle position, but in spite of decades of American rhetoric about self-government and the sovereignty of “the people,” it was clear that many Americans believed that Congress in Washington was fully within its rights to impose federal law directly on the residents of the territories in the manner of a colonial possession.

Certainly, as Rogers shows, the Mormons were not able to win any sizable measure of sovereignty for themselves. Indeed, in 1857, hoping to appear to voters as being tough on polygamy and as decisive against alleged Mormon separatism, President James Buchanan sent 2,500 federal soldiers to Utah to impose federal sovereignty there.

This only heightened the debate over the use of federal power over. Both North and South, many Americans were alarmed at the repercussions of using federal troops to impose federal law on white American citizens.

Rogers shows that many other in Washington did welcome this expansion of power, even among those who would later become separatists themselves. For example, the future president of the Confederacy, Jefferson Davis, called for an expansion of the federal army for the express purpose of imposing federal rule in the territories via military action. In an 1858 speech, Davis declared

I hold that the Territories are dependencies of the Federal Union; they are in a condition of pupilage, to be governed by the States, the property of the States; and that if men, either foreign or native, should aggregate themselves upon a Territory of the United States, and raise the standard of rebellion against the Government … it is the … duty of the Government to put down such an insurrection and to compel obedience.

Davis, of course, would later find himself on the receiving end of the same federal power he encourages here. As Rogers shows, however, Davis missed the full implications of his position because he clung to the idea that federal military power could only be used against territories, and not the states.

Many other political leaders and pundits were more insightful than Davis and saw where Davis’s position naturally led. Rogers notes that during the Utah War, Senator Andrew Johnson of Tennesse warned that sending the army “to act against local sovereignty would end states’ rights” and that state sovereignty “would crumble before the central government.” Johnson was right.

Moreover, although there were no federal marriage laws at the time, many also perceived the federal invasion of Utah as designed to rein in Mormon polygamy. As Rogers notes, this then led many to ask an obvious question: if federal military power can be used against an institution like polygamy, why not use that same power against the institution of slavery?

The Federal Conquest of Utah 

By the end of 1858, the federal government had used the army to impose new federal officials on the residents of Utah and to establish that Utah would not be allowed to govern itself without federal oversight.

Rogers contends that Buchanan’s military expedition established a political and ideological precedent for asserting direct military control over US citizens in the name of fighting perceived threats to federal sovereignty.

The American Civil War only accelerated this trend, and the newly ascendant Republican Party, which had never endorsed the idea of popular sovereignty, did not hold back. Rogers lists the many ways the U.S. government ratcheted up federal control over the Mormons after 1860. In 1861, Congress unilaterally redrew the map of Utah territory, greatly reducing its size as a means of reducing Mormon power. In 1862, President Lincoln signed the first federal marriage law with the Morrill Anti-Bigamy Act, designed to impose federal limits on polygamy. Federal officials created new Indian reservations in ways designed to lessen Mormon influence over local tribes. Mormons had long relied on jury nullification to protect locals from federal prosecutors, so Congress gave federal officials greater power over the selection of jurors.

In all of this, we see how the frontier territories acted as laboratory for new forms of direct federal rule imposed on the residents of the United States. Mormons were the most immediate targets of much of this new federal legislation, but the effect was felt throughout the western territories, and Rogers approvingly quotes one historian who concluded “In 1861, most westerners were occupied peoples.”

Indeed, this quotation helps to illustrate the importance of Unpopular Sovereignty. This is no mere case study relevant only to enthusiasts of regional history, and Rogers’s exploration of the national debate over asserting federal sovereignty over the territories is especially valuable.  The Utah case illustrates just how instrumental the federal government had been in colonizing and controlling the frontier, and how these new federal powers emboldened the much stronger federal government that arose after the Civil War.

Image credit: public domain, Brigham Young University Museum of Art, via Wikimedia. 

 


Originally Posted at https://mises.org/


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.