'Uncommitted' Nightmare Haunts Harris as CNN Interview Further Fractures Base
Business Economics Entertainment Gossip News Politics Sports War

‘Uncommitted’ Nightmare Haunts Harris as CNN Interview Further Fractures Base


Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris is facing a severe crisis with the pro-Palestinian wing of her party after she doubled down on her and President Joe Biden’s Israel policies in her CNN interview Thursday.

CNN’s Dana Bash pressed Harris on arms policy toward Israel on Thursday night. After Harris initially skirted a direct question about potentially withholding “some” arms to Israel, as the pro-Palestinian Uncommitted movement has been demanding for seven months, Bash did not let her off the hook. Following up on the same question, she drew a “No” from Harris when she asked if there would be any “change in policy in terms of arms and so forth” towards Israel, igniting a frenzy of condemnation from prominent pro-Palestinian figures, including Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI).

The response and the fallout underscore and worsen a massive problem for Harris, who has a fractured base heading into the home stretch of the election. These voters, more than half a million of whom protested the Biden-Harris administration with “uncommitted” votes in the Democratic primary, have threatened and continue to threaten to stay home in November, barring a radical change in policy or a cease-fire. The movement includes Arab Americans, Muslims, young voters, and far-left progressives.

Making the problem so severe for Harris is that the movement began in the ever-critical swing state of Michigan and spread to other key swing states like Wisconsin, places where the presidency is expected to be decided by a slim margin. Harris is on shaky ground, considering she still has not brought home her base at a point in the cycle where presidential candidates typically are focused on courting moderates.

Another aspect to contemplate is that if Harris does change course on this position, she runs the risk of looking that much more insincere to undecided voters on crucial issues. She has already waffled on a number of critical policy positions, including fracking, and polling shows the public views former President Donald Trump as the more genuine candidate by a wide margin. Regardless, the issue has festered so long that winning these voters back with words alone appears impossible. At this point, she needs a concrete stoppage in arms and a ceasefire, which are not on the horizon.

Harris’s Reaffirmed Commitment to Israel and a Furious Base

During the interview, Bash noted that the Biden-Harris administration has failed to reach a ceasefire deal in the war and asked Harris if she would “do anything differently” than what the administration has done, explicitly pointing to potentially withholding arms from Israel.

Harris said she is “unequivocal and unwavering in her support for Israel” before tip-toeing around any specifics about policy change and repeatedly declaring a cease-fire must be reached without offering a concrete plan on how to do so:

But let’s take a step back. October 7, 1200 people were massacred, many young people who are simply attending a music festival. Women were horribly raped. As I said then, I say today, Israel had a right, has a right to defend itself. We would. And how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, and we have got to get a deal done. We were in Doha. We have to get a deal done. This war must end. We must get a deal that is about getting the hostages out. I’ve met with the families of the American hostages. Let’s get the hostages out. Let’s get the ceasefire done.

Bash persisted, “But no change in policy in terms of arms and so forth?”

“No, we have to get a deal done,” Harris said.

“I remain committed — since I’ve been on October 8 — to what we must do to work toward a two-state solution where Israel is secure and, in equal measure, the Palestinians have security, and self-determination, and dignity,” she went on to add.

Pro-Palestinian progressives panned Harris after the response, led by Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent.

Prem Thakker, a reporter for Mehdi Hasan’s Zeteo News, shared the clip, writing, “To be clear: this is Kamala Harris saying she will disregard US & international law by sending weapons to a government committing human rights violations.”

Tlaib concurred with Thakker while sharing his tweet, saying Harris’s policies will further what she called “War crimes and genocide” in Gaza.

Hasan blasted Harris as well, saying she and Biden could force a deal to end the war.

“Oh, btw, as @NaomiAKlein and I discussed on #Unshocked today, Harris and Biden can impose a deal, they don’t have to wait for one, or implore the Israelis to agree to one. A deal has been on the table since October and Netanyahu is the main obstacle,” he argued.

Ryan Grim, the co-host of Counter Points and editor of Drop Site News, guest co-hosted the populist alternative media show Breaking Points on Friday and analyzed the entire interview alongside the show’s regular co-host Krystal Ball. He zoned in on Bash’s framing of withholding “some” arms from Israel as the Biden-Harris administration has already done and suggested Harris’s stance is even more pro-Israel than Biden’s:

The Biden administration has even said they would restrict “some” weapons, like the 2,000 pound bombs used for offensive purposes. People keep saying that Harris is better rhetorically and more empathetic. Where’s the empathy there, when you’re actually not even standing by the tiniest of concessions that the Biden administration, her administration has made?

It seems like she very clearly wants to just say she “unequivocally,” “unconditionally,” whatever, supports Israel’s right to defend itself, whereas even Biden will say, “Well, maybe the 2,000 pound bombs dropped on refugee camps, we’re not going to allow that, or at least we won’t allow it for like a two-week pause period.”

Ball blasted Harris in her analysis, saying she does not think Harris “has ideological beliefs,” adding this is the one issue where the progressive left is breaking with the Biden-Harris administration:

There’s such concern on this one issue, there’s such concern about a clear break with the Biden policy. There’s no concern on that on literally any other issue, but she clearly feels like, or also maybe just ideologically believes or feels – that’s less likely because I don’t think she has ideological beliefs–but she feels this is where the pressure is, is she needs to prove how committed to Israel she is and she doesn’t feel as much pressure from the left for whatever reason, whatever political calculus she’s doing, which, by the way, I think is foolish when you just look at the polls.

A post on X by Briahna Joy Gray, the national press secretary for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 2020 campaign and the host of the Bad Faith Podcast, spotlighted the fracture that is not merely taking place between the establishment and progressive wings of the Democratic Party but is also metastasizing within the progressive faction itself.

She ripped Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who claimed Harris is working toward a ceasefire, for her silence after Harris doubled down on backing Israel and compared that to fellow squad member Tlaib’s criticism of Harris.

“No comment tonight from AOC, who claimed Harris was ‘working tirelessly’ for a ceasefire just last week,” Gray wrote in a post on X. “Compare to Rashida Tlaib, who immediately criticized Harris’s CNN remarks. AOC’s last tweet is about IUD insertions.”

Katie Halper, the progressive host of the Katie Halper Show podcast and a leading voice among the progressive Jewish activists against the war in Gaza, retweeted Gray’s tweet calling out Ocasio-Cortez.

Cenk Uygur, the co-creator and co-host of the progressive left-wing program the Young Turkswrote in a post on X that Harris’s “answer on Israel was TERRIBLE.”

“If you say you’re never going to question Israel’s funding or the weapons we’re sending them, by definition you’re not doing all you can to get to a ceasefire,” he continued. “If you’re not using your leverage, you’re doing NOTHING BUT EMPTY WORDS.”

Pulitzer Prize-winning independent journalist Glenn Greenwald, the host of System Update, called out insincere “scum-bag” commentators on the left “who spent 10 months profiting greatly by screaming ‘genocide’ about Gaza” only to lie that Harris would have a different Israel policy than Biden’s.

“Remember those scumbag left-liberal YouTube hosts and Twitch streamers who spent 10 months profiting greatly by screaming “genocide” about Gaza – through monetized traffic and radical-branding posturing – who then began lying that Kamala would be different on Israel than Biden?” he asked. 

Another progressive influencer, podcaster Sabby Sabs, said that Harris’s reaffirmed position undermines what she has told uncommitted voters behind the scenes.

“Kamala made it very clear that she will NOT withhold weapons from Israel. Her administration is going to be the same on Israel as I told you it would. It doesn’t matter what she told uncommitted voters in private. She said it privately for a reason!” Sabs wrote on X.

Russell Dobular, the co-host of the popular left-wing populist show Due Dissidence, called out CNN’s Bash.

“Did Bash bring her own lather for this soapy handjob of an interview, or is carrying the lather around one of Walz’s new duties?” he quipped

The Uncommitted National Movement took to X to call on Harris to adopt its position of withholding weapons to Israel, which it described as the view of most Americans, citing figures from CBS News.

Emma Vigeland, co-host of the progressive news talk show Majority Report with Sam Seder, was unsatisfied with Bash’s approach, writing in a post on X that all of her questions were “framed from the right.”

During Friday’s Majority Report with Sam Seder stream, Vigeland said Harris’s “No” is being taken slightly out of context but stressed Harris’s answer was not nearly sufficient, and similar rhetoric could cost her the election.

Vigeland contended:

So, I think people are running with the “No,” a little bit. It’s more to me a dismissal than it is an outright declaration of policy. She’s trying to not declare anything. She’s trying to just get through it, get to the other side. It wouldn’t be smart for her to just unilaterally declare policy, even if she agrees with Biden.

Let’s just stipulate that, right. It wouldn’t be smart for her to be like,”Yeah I’m concretely doing exactly what he’s doing” because she’s not in the position to do that yet. But, still this is so insufficient and I don’t think that she can get through this election by just trotting that line out like that. It’s just not sustainable.

The global news organization Democracy Now also tweeted about Harris’s position, emphasizing “No Policy Change.”

Referencing another moment in the interview, Jimmy Dore, the popular comedian and left-wing populist host of the eponymously named Jimmy Dore Show, quipped that Harris’s use of the word “honestly” repeatedly in the same sentence gives him the impression that she is being dishonest.

Harris’s problem with a crumbling base was on full display at the Democratic National Convention even before Thursday’s disastrous interview. Demonstrators against the war in Gaza protested Harris every day of the convention, with Democrat delegates being shamed heading into and outside of the security perimeter, protesters breaching a security perimeter gate on the first day of the convention, and a clash with police that led to dozens of arrests on the second night.

Related: 

Matt Perdie / Breitbart News
Matt Perdie / Breitbart News
Matt Perdie / Breitbart News

What is more, the national pro-Palestinian group Abandon Biden announced on the first day of the convention, August 19, that it had adopted the position of “Abandon Harris.” It is committed to ensuring she loses the election.

In a release published on August 23, the group said its “mission is now laser-focused on exposing and opposing Kamala Harris and her complicity in genocide.”

The group said that “appealing to the conscience of the Democratic Party is a waste of time,” adding the party “has no interest in ending” what it called a “genocide” in Gaza.

A Fragmented Base Imperils Harris’s Odds in Key Swing States

The origins and fast-spreading nature of the “Uncommitted movement” during the Democrat primary exemplify how this sharp and increasingly more unbridgeable divide in the Democrat Party is a monumental threat to Harris’s electability in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

The movement began with the Listen to Michigan campaign in the Wolverine State. Its manager is Tlaib’s sister, Layla Elabed. The group sought to garner a modest 10,000 “uncommitted” protest votes in the primary to send a message to Biden and Harris that their policies are jeopardizing their reelection odds.

Listen to Michigan outpaced its goal tenfold, as the uncommitted option garnered more than 100,000 votes in the critical swing state.

“These primaries are an early litmus test for how much Biden’s stance on Gaza could hurt his reelection bid; the threat to Biden’s reelection isn’t that anti-war Democrats will vote for Trump, it’s that they won’t vote at all,” Listen to Michigan’s website states.

To put the significance of 101,430 uncommitted votes in perspective, Biden won Michigan over Trump in 2020 by 154,188 votes. Losing two-thirds of Biden’s margin of victory before accounting for issues like the economy and immigration, which work in Trump’s favor, spells disaster for Democrats in the swing state, as polling shows Trump and Harris in a very close race.

A Fabrizio Ward poll published by the Pinpoint Policy Institute on Thursday found Trump with a 48 percent to 46 percent edge over Harris in the Wolverine State. The poll sampled 400 likely voters from August 19-21 during the DNC convention and has a ± 4.9 percentage point margin of error. An Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll also released Thursday showed Harris with a three-point advantage, at 50 percent to his 47 percent. Emerson College sampled 800 likely Michigan voters from August 35-28 with a ± 3.4 percent credibility.

What is more, Michigan is home to dense Arab-American Muslim communities, including the city of Dearborn. The uncommitted option was the leading vote-getter in Dearborn in the Democratic primary by a wide margin, drawing 6,432 votes, or 57 percent of the vote total. Biden followed at 4,526, translating to 40 percent.

The uncommitted movement spread to nearby Wisconsin on April 2, when 48,812 selected the state’s version of the uncommitted option “uninstructed.” This more than doubles the 20,682 votes Biden won the state by in 2020. Polling also shows a tightly contested race in the Badger state, as Breitbart News noted:

Emerson College found Trump narrowly leading Harris 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided in its survey of 850 voters. The margin of error is ± 3.3 percentage points. On the other hand, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 45 percent in the Fabrizio Ward poll.

And in Minnesota, where Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz (D), serves as governor, 45,914 voters rejected Biden in the Democrat primary on Super Tuesday with uncommitted votes. This accounted for nearly one in five primary voters and surpassed the 44,593 votes Democrat Hillary Clinton beat Trump by in Minnesota in 2016.

2024 Mirrors 2016 More Than 2020

Harris must contend with multiple progressive third-party rivals, unlike Biden in 2020, making the contours of the race more similar to the 2016 election.

The Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West have been leading critics of Harris’s policies regarding the Israel-Hamas war; both will be on the ballot in Michigan. West and Stein were prevalent figures in Chicago during the Democrat primary, attending Pro-Palestinian protests and panning Harris over her policies.

Breitbart News producer and videographer Matthew Perdie caught up with West, who was holding an “Abandon Harris” sign at a protest outside the confines of the security perimeter, and asked him who the sign was for.

“It means any politician who does not speak against that genocide will not receive any support,” he said.

When asked if he has a message to Harris, West said, “I would say shame on my dear sister Harris in the name of genocide and denying genocide and the issues of mass incarceration, the issues of wealth inequality, the issues that she’s still not been able to speak to–not just because she’s sister Harris, but because she’s part of a corrupt Democratic party.”

Stein said she would tell Harris “to get out of the way or to get with the program” at a pro-Palestinian rally. She then challenged Harris to tell “Israel that the weapons supply is over… unless they immediately terminate the war on the people of Gaza and the occupation.”

Stein was part of the crowded 2016 field, in which Trump beat Clinton by close margins in swing states. For instance, Trump won Michigan over Clinton by three-tenths of a percentage point or 10,704 votes. Stein garnered a critical 1.1 percentage points, likely to Clinton’s detriment, while Libertarian Gary Johnson landed 3.6 percent, which was likely to Trump’s disadvantage.

In Wisconsin, Trump beat Clinton 47.2 percent to 46.5 percent, or by nearly 23,000 votes. Stein secured one percent of support, and 3.6 percent broke for Johnson.

Polling has already shown Harris is losing the national Arab American vote to Stein by a wide margin. An American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) and Mo Maraqa poll conducted on July 27 and 28 among 3,130 respondents found Stein leading with 45.3 percent of the vote, followed by Harris at a grim 27.5 percent.

For perspective, a Zogby Analytics poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI) just a month before the 2020 election showed Biden was beating Trump with Arab Americans by a 59 percent to 35 percent margin. The October 4-12, 2020, poll of 805 Arab American voters and the margin of error was ± 3.5 percentage points.

Originally Posted At www.breitbart.com


Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter

Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.





Current subscribers:

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.