Globalists Are Trying To Escalate The Ukraine War Into WWIII Before The US Election
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Globalists Are Trying To Escalate The Ukraine War Into WWIII Before The US Election

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

The purpose of NATO involvement in the Ukraine War has, to me, always appeared obvious. Ukraine has nothing to do with the interests of the western public, nothing to do with the security of Europe and nothing to do with the economic advancement of the United States. Yet, NATO and the globalists have been politically interfering in the region since at least 2014 and preparing the ground for an eventual war with Russia.

To be clear, I don’t favor Russia any more than I favor Ukraine. The Kremlin has long had its own ties to the globalists, as I have outlined in numerous articles. How deep those ties go is up for debate – Maybe the honeymoon is over and Russia is truly done trying to get a seat at the globalist table. What I do know is that western elites want a world war and they have done everything in their power to start one.

Look at it this way: What if you were to make a list of all the covert and overt NATO operations in Ukraine and then flipped script? What if Russia was pursuing all the same agendas of destabilization, control and arms proliferation in Mexico (as the Soviets did in Cuba in the 1960s)?  If the US invaded Mexico preemptively it would be completely understandable.

Whether or not Putin is acting in the best interests of Russia doesn’t really matter. The war was inevitable anyway because NATO made sure it was impossible to avoid. But what purpose does such a proxy war serve? Well, it doesn’t serve much purpose at all…unless the goal is to instigate a wider world war between the East and the West. In that scenario the globalists benefit greatly.

They get a scapegoat for the economic collapse they’ve already set in motion. They multiply the global fear factor and make the public desperate for the political elites to step in and solve all their problems. And, they can get rid of their domestic enemies (conservatives and patriots) by accusing them of “working with Russia” to undermine the war effort if they dare to rebel against unconstitutional mandates.

Beyond that, they also get an opportunity to send young men (who might rebel) off to the meat grinder in Ukraine so that there’s no new generation of freedom fighters to deal with. World War III is a win-win-win for the Davos crowd, as long as it doesn’t go full-on nuclear holocaust and wipe out their carefully crafted surveillance states.

But how do they turn the proxy war into a world war without looking like the bad guys? That’s the trick, isn’t it?

The proxy (in this case, Ukraine) would have to take actions that provoke Russia into an explosive outburst. Russia would have to utilize tactics or weaponry that puts a vast number of civilians at risk, requiring greater NATO involvement and perhaps even UN intervention. They need Russia to level a major city containing hundreds of thousands of civilians. They need Russia to drop MOABs or nukes. They need a dramatic war crime; otherwise, the western public is not going to support boots on the ground or agree to a military draft.

Popular support for monetary and military aid in Ukraine is waning quickly and Ukraine knows they are about to lose. The Kursk offensive looks like an act of desperation triggered by this reality.

The Kursk region has almost no modern strategic value. It’s a rural agricultural area with a limited industrial base. It does have natural gas pipelines that send energy to Europe, but that doesn’t help Ukraine. They’re already in trouble with Germany for blowing up the Nordstream pipeline. There is also a nuclear power plant in the area but it’s too far away for Ukraine’s troops to seize it (They could try to destroy it with drones and cause a nuclear incident, but this would have to be done covertly without Ukraine taking direct credit).

Mainstream strategists argue that the Kursk operation was designed to force Russia to move crack troops away from the Donbas front where they are making impressive gains. This would allegedly slow down Russia’s attrition based offensive and change the direction of the war. But if that was the plan, it failed miserably.

Ukraine’s troops in Kursk have reportedly been contained. Using NATO-style maneuver tactics to invade Kursk has also done nothing to slow Russia’s advance as they are now primed to take the key city of Toretsk. They are also approaching Pokrovsk (the main staging ground for Ukraine’s forces in the east). These areas are heavily defended with long term entrenchments, but Russia is rolling right through them. The lines beyond these cities are thin or non-existent. Ukraine would immediately be forced to negotiate a cease fire.

Russia also launched the largest missile and drone strikes of the war in fifteen Ukrainian oblasts, causing even greater disruptions to utilities. This proves two things: The Russian military has NOT been diminished or crippled and they still have ample long range ordnance, despite what NATO officials originally claimed

There’s a reason why Kursk was so lightly defended by Russia – It’s not worth anything to Ukraine in terms of winning the war. That said, I would like to offer an alternative theory on why Ukraine made such a move…

The moment Ukraine crossed onto Russian soil the media and political narrative changed. The word today is that the Kremlin’s “red lines” are meaningless and that Ukraine has proven that Putin is “all talk” when it comes to nuclear weapons and metropolitan strikes. The discussion has turned to the use of US and European long range missiles deep into Russian territory. The Ukrainian government (with NATO behind it) is demanding that US and European officials allow them access to the big-boy toys.

Again, the Biden Administration has to at least appear resistant to this idea. They know if they openly give the green light to offensive ATACM strikes on Russian soil beyond the front that they will be seen as stepping over the line of logistical “support” into the realm of direct warfare with the Russians. Yes, I’m well aware that NATO intel and “advisers” have been on the ground in Ukraine since before the war began. The point is, it’s not official policy because the public would not accept it.

Long range strikes into Russia, I believe, will set in motion more Russian strikes on major cities in the west of Ukraine where the majority of the population lives. These areas have gone largely untouched during the duration of the war. Putin, despite what the media claims, has been careful to limit the targeting of larger civilian centers. That will end if NATO missiles hit Russian cities.

Kursk may have been an attempt to embarrass Russia into wild strikes on civilian targets, thereby giving NATO a reason to intervene. That’s one theory. Another theory is that the Kursk operation is designed to convince western policy makers and the public that there will be no nuclear repercussions; that Putin is all bluster and Ukraine should be given more advanced tools to bomb Moscow.

This narrative is largely promoted by the Atlantic Council, a globalist think-tank with ties to the World Economic Forum and the “Three Seas Initiative.” The Atlantic Council directly advises the Ukrainian government on all aspect of the war, including strategy through their Eurasian Center.  They also advise NATO through their Scowcroft Center. As their website notes:

The Eurasia Center has worked tirelessly to respond to the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, using our well-respected and high-visibility platform and leveraging relationships in government, civil society, and the media to have great impact. The Eurasia Center offers recommendations directly to the U.S. administration and Congress, senior Ukrainian officials, European leadership, international media, and civil society. The Center tracks the military and political situation within Ukraine and advocates for stronger, faster measures to stall and mitigate the damage of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine.”

I would argue that the Atlantic Council is the primary globalist “influencer” in the Ukraine war – The source for the majority of strategic decisions and propaganda. Their support of the ‘Three Seas Initiative” since 2014 has been the driving force in the effort to bring Ukraine into the EU and NATO (the primary reason why the war started in the first place).

Lindsay Graham, a Neo-Con and rabid proponent of using Ukraine as a proxy to ignite a war with Russia, has been participating in Atlantic Council projects since at least 2010.

It’s the Atlantic Council and their media contacts, in my opinion, that are pushing for large scale missile strikes into Russia. They are also the source for the claim that Putin’s red lines are a fake out. They state on their website:

Ukraine’s offensive is now posing serious questions about the credibility of Russia’s saber-rattling and the rationality behind the West’s abundance of caution. After all, the Ukrainian army’s current invasion of Russia is surely the reddest of all red lines. If Russia was at all serious about a possible nuclear escalation, this would be the moment to make good on its many threats. In fact, Putin has responded by seeking to downplay the invasion while pretending that everything is still going according to plan.”

This is the same propaganda that has been spreading into most establishment media platforms in recent weeks. (As a side note, the Atlantic Council was also heavily involved in the funding of covid mandate and vaccine propaganda during the pandemic scare).

The idea that ballistic volleys into Russia using NATO supplied missiles won’t result in Putin using MOABs or nukes is truly insane. Keep in mind, long range strikes into Russia will do nothing to change the conditions on the ground in the Donbas.

Even if the globalists can’t convince western populations to give the thumbs up for ballistic attacks on Russia using weapons paid for with our tax dollars, the powers-that-be have a contingency plan. Ukraine has recently announced that they have developed their OWN long range ballistic missile, and those weapons supposedly don’t fall under the supervision of the US and Europe.

Eventually these kinds of strikes will lead to a Russian response that will appear brutal; and western warhawks will squeeze that event for all it’s worth. They’ll run with it straight to the Pentagon and demand a plan for US military conscription. If this is the agenda then they’ll need to make it happen BEFORE the elections in November.

Donald Trump is looking increasingly likely to be the winner of the presidential race. I have long held that the globalists will wrap up an economic collapse or a world war and throw it in Trump’s lap. They already tried to do the same thing with the covid pandemic and the inflationary crisis.

The timing of the Kursk offensive and the call for missile strikes on Russia is not a coincidence. Trump claims that his intention is to end the Ukraine war as quickly as possible once he enters office. This will likely mean a leveraged peace settlement that will involve Ukraine giving up the Donbas region to Russia. If Trump is sincere, then there are many elites in the Atlantic Council, the WEF and NATO that will not be happy.

They need to escalate the war into something bigger, something that can’t be undone. Right now, the war can be ended – All it takes is some diplomacy and forcing Ukraine to understand that they’re not going to get the Donbas or Crimea back no matter how many lives they sacrifice. But if there are massive civilian casualties on either side, the situation becomes irreversible. I suspect this is what the globalists want.

*  *  *

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Originally Posted at; https://www.zerohedge.com//


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.