Biden-Harris Pentagon Stonewalling Congress, Media on Walz's China Travel
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Biden-Harris Pentagon Stonewalling Congress, Media on Walz’s China Travel


The Biden-Harris Pentagon is refusing to answer questions from Congress and the media on Democrat vice-presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) frequent travel to China — which poses risks for members of the military and raises questions of whether or not Walz reported these trips to the Army National Guard while he was serving.

Members of the United States military are typically required to report to or request permission from their command before traveling overseas — especially if they have a security clearance and they are traveling to a country hostile to U.S. interests, such as China.

This is because members of the U.S. military are enticing targets of foreign espionage and exploitation. When traveling to hostile countries, they will often receive a defensive briefing before they go, on what to watch out for. Upon returning, they are sometimes asked to provide a briefing of the trip on who they met with and if anything out of the ordinary happened.

Walz has bragged about visiting China about 30 times. Many of those trips were taken when he was an Army National Guard member.

It is not clear if or how often Walz reported his travels to China to his command, requested permission to go, or if he had a security clearance — and the Pentagon is not providing answers.

House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee Chairman Jim Banks (R-IN) sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the acting chief of the National Guard Army Lt. Gen. Jonathan Stubbs on August 13, requesting that information.

Two days later, a Pentagon spokesperson, on August 15, told the South China Morning Post that Austin would respond to Banks “in due course.” Now, more than two weeks later, the Pentagon has still not responded, according to a Banks aide.

Banks said in an exclusive statement to Breitbart News on Thursday:

The Biden-Harris DOD is once again putting politics ahead of our national security. Tim Walz is bought and paid for by the Chinese Communist Party and doesn’t belong anywhere near the White House.

Breitbart News also asked the Minnesota National Guard deputy of public affairs on August 22 if Walz had ever requested permission to visit China or had a security clearance during his time in the National Guard, with a deadline of August 28. As of August 30, there has been no response.

Breitbart News also reached out to Walz’s spokesman, Teddy Tschann, with questions but did not receive a response by deadline.

A retired senior non-commissioned officer with the Army National Guard told Breitbart News that “99 percent” of staff sergeants, or E-6s, in the Army National Guard will have at least an interim security clearance, and thus be required to report such trips. Walz traveled annually to China between 1993 and 2003, and was at least a master sergeant, or E-8, by 2004. That means he would have spent at least some years in China as an E-6 or above.

The retired NCO said that when Walz was conditionally promoted to sergeant major, or E-9, in 2004, he would have needed to update his SF-86 — which is a government form used for background checks and to obtain security clearances — to attend the Sergeant Majors Academy. Reports suggest that Walz began the Sergeant Majors Academy but did not complete it, instead choosing to cut his military contract short and retire in 2005.

“Even back then, every trip on your passport needs to be listed on the SF-86,” said the retired NCO, who suggested that not being able to get a security clearance could have played a role in Walz’s sudden retirement from the military.

Walz had reportedly committed to serve until 2007, but retired in May 2005, just two months after he said his unit was possibly deploying to Iraq and promising to go. He claimed he retired so he could focus on his run for Congress, despite members of the National Guard being able to run for office while serving.

Security experts agree Walz’s frequent trips to China would have triggered concerns in the military.

Walz joined the National Guard in 1981, when he was 17. Walz first went to China in December 1989 when he was 25, as part of a program teaching English. He spent a year there, and traveled the country afterwards. With the help of a “friend” in the Chinese government, Walz returned in 1993, bringing high school students with him. He told a local newspaper that he received permission and funding from the Chinese government.

After getting married in 1994, he brought his wife to China for their honeymoon, along with 60 students for two trips to China. Some students received “scholarships” from Walz, his wife, and the Chinese government. He and his wife would start a for-profit small business bringing American students for trips to China, every year until 2003.

Sean Bigley, security clearance expert and current professor at Chapman University, said the fact that he received funding from China for these trips is highly problematic and would be disqualifying for someone seeking a security clearance.

“That’s almost a non-starter for a security clearance. That’s almost a guaranteed denial, because they say, ‘Well what are you expected to do in return for that money?’” Bigley said in an interview with Breitbart News.

“The Chinese government doesn’t just give money to give money. There’s an expectation that comes with that,” he said. “Those deals don’t happen without some sort of expectation of future cooperation on some level, or at least a willingness to engage.”

Bigley, a former Bush administration official, said even back in the early 2000s, travel to China — when U.S.-China relations were less hostile — would still be problematic.

“I can almost guarantee that even back then, that would have raised eyebrows, like, ‘Wait, what — you’re getting paid by the Chinese government?” he said.

“Even back then, there’s tremendous risk involved when we’re talking about a hostile foreign country,” he said. “You have to assume you’re being tracked and monitored. The issue and the risk is typically the potential to be placed in scenarios that open you up to blackmail.”

Bigley said China could have also gathered basic intelligence on Walz’s networks. “You know, who does this person know? What are their connections to different people? It allows foreign intelligence services to build out a picture of who this person is that could potentially be exploited in unforeseen ways down the road,” he said.

Bigley said it is a key question whether Walz had a security clearance at the time of his travels, and noted that the answer would not be classified.

John Schindler, a former senior intelligence analyst and counterintelligence officer with the National Security Agency, said Walz’s travel to China and government funding would certainly not have happened without the approval of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, the regime’s powerful secret police.

“Here’s the thing: You don’t get to go back to China 30 times on educational exchanges unless you have the approval of the Communist Party and the secret police. That’s just how communist countries work,” he told Breitbart News in an interview.

Schindler wrote in a recent Washington Examiner piece:

Put simply, the Chinese communists aren’t running a holiday charity for American tourists. For those communists, nothing comes without a quid pro quo.


Three decades ago, a young American with an affection for China, who was also a part-time member of the U.S. military, would have been a tempting recruiting target for Chinese intelligence. Given that Beijing’s spies represent the greatest espionage threat to the United States today, this isn’t any merely academic query.

Moreover, we’re coming off four years of a Democratic president possessing odd, unexplained ties to Beijing, including millions of dollars given to his son by Chinese intelligence. Do we really want someone who may be even more compromised by China in the White House?

Schindler agreed with Bigley that “there is no way that an applicant with 30-plus visits to Communist China would get a security clearance. “That’s not going to happen… . And that would be a show stopper. But apparently not to be the vice president,” he said.

A look at local news articles at the time reveal other alarming details in Walz’s history with China.

Walz was in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square crackdown on June 4, 1989, when Chinese officials brutally massacred students protesting for democracy. Walz said he opted to go into China that December, despite other teachers having reservations because believed it was more important than ever to go and show his support for the Chinese people.

However, after returning, he gushed about his time there. In a September 18, 1990, Scottsbluff Star-Herald article, he said, “No matter how long I live, I’ll never be treated that well again.” He added, “They gave me more gifts than I could bring home. It was an excellent experience.” He also said, “I was treated exceptionally well. There was no anti-Americanism whatsoever,” and said there was “almost no crime.”

A January 9, 1994, Star-Herald article at the time said Walz “has always been fascinated by Communist China” and that he “remembers from his childhood pictures of Mao Tse-tung, hung in public places and carried in parades.”

Walz told the paper he was “treated royally in the Chinese school system” — given a decorated apartment, a color television, and a shortwave radio. His apartment was the only air-conditioned one on campus. He also said he was thrown parties on his birthday and Christmas and earned $80 per month — double the salary of other teachers.

The article also said “a Chinese banner and clippings from news accounts of his trips cover the walls in his office” at Alliance High School where he was a teacher. The article noted at the time, he was already serving in the National Guard, and had guarded an armory.

In another November 12, 1991, Scottsbluff Star-Herald article, Walz appeared to extol the communist system, as reported by the Washington Free Beacon.

“It means that everyone is the same and everyone shares,” Walz told his high school students during a class, according to the article. “The doctor and the construction worker make the same. The Chinese government and the place they work for provide housing and 14 kg or about 30 pounds of rice per month. They get food and housing.”

Walz would return to China in 1993, bringing students with him, with the help of the Chinese government, according to a July 25, 1993, Star-Herald article. The article said, “Walz got the idea while working as a teacher in China three years ago. A friend helped contact the authorities, and funding came through from the government this April.” The article added:

Each student and the 10 sponsors have had to raise $1,580, Walz said. But lodging, food and other costs in China are being picked up by the government. ‘We don’t think a high school group has gone that (Chinese authorities have) paid a large part of the cost,’ he said.

The students’ special status will let them go places other people can’t, Walz explained. They’ll be traveling throughout southern China for about two weeks, including visits to Hong Kong and a hot springs resort that has one of the country’s two golf courses.

Michael Sobolik, senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, recently told the Daily Mail it was “notable” the Chinese government funded Walz’s student exchange trips to China. “By Walz’s own admission, it was unusual that the government ‘paid a large part of the cost,’” he told the outlet.

Another Scottsbluff Star-Herald article said the “friend” who helped Walz was in China’s foreign affairs department.

Sometime between returning from China in 1990 and 1994, Walz would work “full-time for the Nebraska National Guard,” according to the Minnesota Star Tribune.

Walz and his wife Gwen would marry on June 4, 1994 — on the fifth anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, according to a Scottsbluff Star-Herald report. “He wanted to have a date he’ll always remember,” his then-soon-to-be wife told the paper.

They would then spend their honeymoon in China — bringing along 60 students for two two-week long trips to China. Seven students received $800 scholarships from Walz, his wife, and the Chinese government, the Daily Mail reported. Around this time, Walz and his wife started their business bringing American high school students to China.

A former student who says he joined Walz on a 1995 trip to China told Alpha News that he was struck by Walz’s adoration for China and its communist ideology.

“There was no doubt he was a true believer,” said the student, who did not want to use his last name. “I’ve been trying to tell people this for 30 years. Nobody wanted to listen.

“At night, we’d go out, we’d walk the street fairs. We’d be buying souvenirs and Tim was always buying the little red book. He said he gave them as gifts … I saw him buy at least a dozen on the trip,” said the student. “It would be like in Germany and buying copies of Mein Kampf.”

Walz would deploy to Italy in 2003 and retire from the National Guard in 2005. He ran for Congress in 2005, was elected in 2006, and began serving in 2007. He was a visiting fellow at the Macau Polytechnic University until as late as 2007, according to the Washington Free Beacon. Macau is a former Portuguese colony that was taken over by China in 1999.

In 2007, he told the Hill that he first taught in China as a 25-year-old because, “China was coming, and that’s the reason that I went.” He said his students nicknamed him “Fields of China,” because his kindness was a big as the fields of China. He said they also called him “big-nosed one” and “foreign devil.”

As a member of Congress, Walz has been critical of China’s human rights record. He has met with human rights activists and co-sponsored resolutions on the issue. In 2015, he went with a delegation to Tibet, led by then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and met with the Dalai Lama.

However, experts note that is hardly unique in terms of U.S. officials, and that Walz has also called for cooperation with China. They note that there is even a term for officials who talk tough on human rights, but being more muted on other issues.

As Michael Lucci, founder and CEO of State Armor, a nonprofit focused on the threat posed by the CCP, wrote recently in the Washington Examiner:

Walz’s history presents a case study in the Chinese Communist Party’s subnational influence campaigns. The Chinese phrase ‘big help with a little bad mouth‘ describes an influence target such as Walz who might talk tough on human rights but who protects the CCP’s reputation and makes critical concessions on economics and defense. Walz’s track record of advancing CCP propaganda while kowtowing on trade and national security deserves scrutiny.

Lucci also noted that Walz opposed linking China’s human rights abuses to U.S. trade policy throughout most of his congressional tenure. Walz said in a 2016 video interview with Agri-Pulse Communications, an agriculture-focused publication, “I don’t fall into the category that China necessarily needs to be an adversarial relationship.”

While he said he disagreed with what China was doing in the South China Sea, but added, “There’s many areas of cooperation that we [can] work on.” He also mentioned a trip he took to China earlier that year, which included meeting with China’s agricultural minister and said his work on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China has “opened channels of collaboration.”

“When we’re on the same sheet of music, two of the world’s great superpowers, there’s many collaborative things that we can do,” he added.

In another video, Walz is heard saying, “I’m pretty friendly with China.”

As Minnesota governor, Walz has opposed Trump’s “confrontational” trade policy on China, according to Japanese news outlet Nikkei. Lucci also noted that Walz called on Trump to “end the trade war with China” but did not call on China to “end the decades of subsidies, intellectual property theft, and targeting of American defense companies to which Trump was responding.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, China’s acting Chicago Consul General Liu Jun attended Walz’s inauguration as Minnesota governor. Liu said in a 2019 press release that he hoped Walz could promote friendly and cooperative relations between Minnesota and China.

In 2019, Walz headlined a CCP influence group’s 2019 national convention, according to journalist Natalie Winters:

According to the National Review, Walz in a February 2021 letter to a Chinese-language school in Edina, Minnesota, wrote that his state has a “longstanding relationship with the people of China.”

“The state has promoted Minnesota’s connections with China and has hosted numerous senior Chinese officials for decades,” he wrote, adding that “these ties are rapidly expanding through the growth of education, trade, and investment opportunities between our two peoples.”

In March 2024, Walz hosted China’s Counsel General in Chicago Zhao Jian at the Minnesota state capitol.

Walz’s selection as Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate has been portrayed positively in the Chinese state-run media, according to one report.

Australian news website the Conversation reported that Chinese-government run media highlighted Walz’s “rich life experience,” noting his teaching, frequent visits and honeymoon in China.

The article also said China Daily “mentioned his support for non-adversarial relations with China, praising his capacity to make ‘more rational and informed decisions on US-China relations.’”

The article noted that Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) had called China “the biggest threat to the U.S.”

One Chinese outlet wrote, “…it is probably certain that Walz and his wife’s experience in China should be generally positive.”

And a publication that U.S. lawmakers consider part of China’s overseas propaganda arm known as the “United Front” argued:

Walz’s unique China experience is an asset that […] will directly affect Harris’ China policy. From the Chinese perspective, Walz is a person China is willing to proactively engage with.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) recently sent a letter to the FBI requesting information on Chinese entities and officials that Walz has engaged and partnered with, as well as any warnings or advice the FBI may have given him about U.S. political figures being targeted or recruited for CCP influence operations.

Comer wrote to FBI Director Christopher Wray:

It has come to the Committee’s attention that Governor Walz has longstanding connections to CCP-connected entities and officials that make him susceptible to the Party’s strategy of elite capture, which seeks to co-opt influential figures in elite political, cultural, and academic circles to influence the United States to the benefit of the communist regime and the detriment of Americans. Reporting about Governor Walz’s extensive engagement with CCP officials and entities while serving in public office raises questions about possible CCP influence in his decision-making as governor — and, should he be elected, as vice president.

Comer gave the FBI a deadline of August 30, 2024, to provide answers.

Senators are also concerned as well.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) posted on August 6: “Tim Walz owes the American people an explanation about his unusual, 35-year relationship with Communist China.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) posted on August 8: “Walz is an example of how Beijing patiently grooms future American leaders Decades later they get into positions of power, are portrayed as ‘experts’ by the media & push for policies that allow China to steal our jobs & factories & flood America with drugs.”

Schindler also noted in his recent op-ed the hypocrisy of Democrats “obsessing about former President Donald Trump’s alleged ties to Moscow, most of which turned out to be imaginary.”

“Would anybody have thought Trump was fit for the Oval Office if he’d visited Russia 30 times, including on the Kremlin’s dime, and gushed about Moscow’s glories?” he asked.

Bigley, a former Trump appointee to the National Security Education Board, also noted that the left has tried to argue that Trump — who was convicted for falsifying business documents by a New York court — should not have a security clearance, but Walz would likely not be eligible for one, given his history with China.

“It’s like, well, wait a minute — a little hypocritical, guys,” Bigley said.

Follow Breitbart News’s Kristina Wong on ”X”, Truth Social, or on Facebook.

Originally Posted At www.breitbart.com


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

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