Lessons From Hurricane Helene – Part 2

by A.F., Survival Blog:

 

(Continued from Part 1.)

Back to the Friday morning of the storm: The rain stopped here around 10 A.M.. According to our rain gauge, we received 5.6” overnight. As I walked our property, I found a tangle of trees had fallen with a very large white oak knocking over a decent-sized pine, and that in turn landed on one of our chicken coops. A sycamore had fallen from our side of the property line and damaged a section of our neighbor’s pasture fence, the top of a white oak had broken out and blocked one of our internal roads, a poplar was laying across our spring cistern, the road our driveway connects to was blocked by multiple trees in both directions, several hundred feet of utility lines were on the ground near our home and the creek that forms our property line was backed up by a nearby river such that the lowest elevations of our property were under five or so feet of water. We were fortunate.

TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/

As of this writing, the only loss we incurred was a two-inch irrigation pump that spent the night underwater. I may be able to repair it. Our neighbor had a young bull (around 500 pounds) escape and no one has seen it in three weeks. Remarkably, none of the homes in our community suffered damage beyond a few torn-off shingles. There were/are so many downed trees here and in the surrounding counties. Obviously, some homes took damage; but the number of occurrences where a tree fell away from a house, vehicle or property even falling opposite to surrounding trees gave a strong testimony that the Lord was watching over His people during the storm. At my in-law’s place, twenty-six oak and hickory trees were uprooted on their two acres. The way trees fell between my father-in-law’s parked trucks, tractors, and trailers without scratching the paint cannot be described as anything other than divine intervention.

When we experience a power outage, I have a four-hour rule for bringing out the generator in hot weather but will wait for up to six hours in cooler weather. In the case of Helene, I hauled our gasoline-powered 5.6kW up to the house and connected it to the generator transfer panel around ten Friday morning. We have had this old workhorse since the summer of 2003, it has around 350 hours on it and I do my best to crank it every six months. I began running the carburetor dry to shut the engine off on the day I purchased it and since ethanol-free gasoline became available around here four years ago, Sta-Bil treated alcohol-free gas is all that I have used. The last of my 2022-dated stored fuel was burned during our time without electricity.

I installed the 60A/220VAC generator panel as the second improvement we made to our home after purchase. It is a twelve-space model produced by Siemens, but seems to no longer be in production. The panel is extremely simple with a pair of double pole 60 amp breakers mounted back to back with a lockout device that will allow both the generator and utility supplies to be shut off, but will only allow one or the other to be in the supply or on position (photo of generator panel). The remainder of the setup consists of a 6/3 copper conductor running between the generator supply breaker and a 50-amp 220-volt receptacle mounted in a weatherproof box on the exterior wall of our home. To tie in the generator, we use a 30-amp rated 10/3 copper cord between the 50A receptacle and the 220-volt output on the generator. If or when we up-size our generator, the 50-amp plug and 60-amp breaker will mean that I won’t have to resize any of the wiring to accommodate the larger gen set.

I become angry every time someone tells me they plan to connect a generator to their home by backfeeding a 220 circuit such as the dryer or range. For years I heard this method referred to as using a “suicide cord”, but during a generator safety course the instructor named it the man slaughter cord. I must agree this is a far more fitting name. The lineman son of a friend was severely injured a few years ago because someone back-fed a generator. Please don’t do this. A basic generator lockout panel is not an expensive investment and doing electrical work correctly in this situation above many others is a civic responsibility.

I had to get into the panel twice during the power outage. The first time was because I had inadvertently placed our home office on a breaker instead of the living room. Having included spare jumper conductors in the conduit during initial installation and purchasing extra breakers made adding the living room a three-minute fix. The second time I had to get into the panel was around day four and I will address the reason in a few.

Back in 2020, a friend hired me to install a generator panel similar to my own. In choosing his generator, he had found a company that took dual fuel Champion generators and added a regulator and fuel line modification that enables the unit to also run on natural gas. I was impressed enough with his generator that I purchased one. Since the Champion literature was not written for natural gas operation, I can only estimate that given the running outputs of 7,000 watts for gasoline and 6,300 W for propane that I am getting approximately 5,500 running watts due to the lower BTU density of natural gas. Although we have owned this unit for four years, I had not quite gotten through the initial five-hour break in period before needing the unit for Helene.

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Originally Posted at https://www.sgtreport.com


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    How Trump Could Transform Indo–Pacific Policy

    How Trump Could Transform Indo–Pacific Policy

    Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office will likely bring sweeping changes to the nation’s Indo–Pacific policy and ongoing strategic competition with China.

    Taiwan’s armed forces hold two days of routine drills to show combat readiness ahead of Lunar New Year holidays at a military base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Jan. 11, 2023. The self-ruled island of Taiwan continues to hold defensive drills, as tensions remain high in the Taiwan Strait. Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

    Leaders throughout Congress and the national security space are therefore preparing for an era marked by increased confrontation as the administration pushes back on the Chinese regime’s aggression in the region.

    Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, said he expects a second Trump administration to adopt a firm approach to foreign policy in the Indo–Pacific.

    During Trump’s first administration, peace through strength was at the forefront of American foreign policy,” Moolenaar said in a statement shared with The Epoch Times by the committee’s staff.

    That strength, Moolenaar suggests, would extend to the U.S. allies throughout the Indo–Pacific, where Trump is expected to push regional partners to increase their defense spending in order to receive continued U.S. support.

    The entire free world must act with urgency to invest in its collective military power in order to deter conflict, support global prosperity, and defend our values against CCP [Chinese Communist Party] aggression,” Moolenaar said.

    Those increased expectations of Washington’s allies could bring both risk and opportunities to U.S. relations in the region as the nation attempts to pressure regional partners into adopting a more forward-facing defense posture.

    They will also likely bring increased volatility to the United States’ relationship with China and the CCP, including by shaping the potential for an armed conflict between the two superpowers over the future of Taiwan.

    Taiwan Flashpoint

    The CCP claims that Taiwan is part of its territory. Though the communist regime has never controlled the island, CCP leader Xi Jinping has made unifying Taiwan with the mainland a legacy issue of his rule and has ordered the Party’s military wing to prepare for a potential conflict by 2027.

    The United States does not officially support Taiwanese independence or the forceful unification of the two territories. But, since 1979, Washington has maintained obligations to sell Taiwan the arms it needs to maintain its self-defense.

    Likewise, the United States has maintained a policy of so-called strategic ambiguity since 1979, in which it will neither confirm nor deny its willingness to enter a military conflict to defend Taiwan from CCP aggression.

    However, U.S. political and military leadership have signaled that they are preparing for such an eventuality. To that end, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti issued a guidance document in September ordering the Navy to prepare for war with China by 2027.

    The United States is not interested in preserving Taiwan’s independence simply because of its democratic government. The island nation is responsible for manufacturing more than half of the world’s semiconductors and nearly 90 percent of the globe’s advanced semiconductors, used in electronic components for everything from laptops to pickup trucks to hypersonic missiles.

    To that end, Trump’s transactional approach to international security deals has thrown Taiwan’s central role in the global economy into question.

    In July, for example, Trump called for Taiwan to pay more for its defense, though the island is already one of the largest purchasers of arms from the United States.

    Since 1950, Taiwan has spent more than $50 billion on U.S. weapons, making it the fourth largest purchaser of U.S. arms behind Japan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

    Trump has also suggested that military force would not be necessary to protect Taiwan from the CCP and has instead claimed that a severe enough economic threat to China would prevent an invasion of Taiwan.

    Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute think tank, told The Epoch Times that Trump’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan’s defense could invite further CCP attempts to sway American and Taiwanese decision-makers away from aggressively defending the island’s de facto independence.

    “The president-elect has already indicated that he would be less clear than President Biden as to whether he thought the United States had an obligation to come to Taiwan’s defense if China decided to invade the island,” Hsiao said.

    Washington and Taipei should be prepared for Beijing to exploit this in its cognitive warfare campaigns and quickly develop their own counter-strategies.

    Hsiao noted, however, that Trump was “unencumbered by past precedents and norms,” which could help him to strengthen the bilateral relationship by overcoming the self-imposed restrictions of the past that have limited U.S. involvement with Taiwan on the international stage.

    As such, he said, asking for Taiwan to accept a larger share of the financial burden for its defense could be an opportunity for Taiwanese leaders to demonstrate their resolve and, in the process, garner renewed U.S. support through access to increased arms sales.

    “President-elect Trump is expected to emphasize burden-sharing in security ties with allies and partners,” Hsiao said.

    “While this may be generally seen in a negative light by most allies and partners, it should be noted that this could lead to it being more forward-leaning in providing a wider variety of arms to Taiwan suited to a range of potential contingencies.”

    Trump Expected to Deliver Security—at a Price

    Taiwanese leadership responded by saying the island was committed to taking on more responsibility and defending itself from CCP aggression.

    Taiwanese leadership may consider making a substantial arms purchase early on in the second Trump administration as a sort of down payment to demonstrate its resolve to the administration.

    John Mills, former cybersecurity chief in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, said that ensuring a robust defense budget would help Taiwan to make sure U.S. support did not flag and that military expenditure was “the primary metric” used by Trump to determine an ally’s willingness to defend itself.

    We have a very poor track record when we carry the burden for other countries,” Mills said.

    “All that is being asked is at least 2 percent of GDP spent on defense and, in reality, 4 to 5 percent is the new 2 percent.”

    At present, Taiwan spends about 2.4 percent of its GDP on defense, according to data compiled by the CIA.

    Other U.S. allies in the region are more varied. South Korea spends about 2.7 percent of its GDP on defense, and the Philippines spends only about 1.5 percent. Japan is in a unique situation because it is currently spending 1.4 percent but is in the middle of a historic reform of its military policy and strategy, which will see that figure rise to at least 2 percent in the coming years.

    Yet none of those numbers at their current levels are likely to please the incoming Trump administration if it is truly so set on encouraging the nation’s allies in the Indo–Pacific to take point on confronting the Chinese regime’s global expansion.

    There may be some wiggle room, however, as the administration looks to use less traditional pathways to secure its international interests.

    Sam Kessler, a geopolitical analyst at the North Star Support Group risk advisory company, said that a hallmark of the first Trump administration was its ability to think outside of the box, and that would likely only increase now, given Trump’s growing distance from the old guard of the Republican Party.

    “The Trump administration in the first term was innovative, proactive, and resourceful in the deals and agreements they crafted, so expect something similar, as well as a little predicted unpredictability, too,” Kessler told The Epoch Times.

    This may be done in the form of trade deals, security arrangements, foreign investments, and policies that may help reduce the threat levels, too. It could be a wide range of things that could be utilized.

    On that note, Kessler suggests that Trump would revisit trade deals and strong economic measures when confronting China and might prove surprisingly willing to take a proactive stance in the bilateral relationship with China.

    Such economic deals, he said, could have the secondary objective of smoothing out regional tensions and preserving allied security while holding the CCP accountable economically.

    “We may end up witnessing a series of deals and agreements that may be related to multiple issues that are non-related to the original purpose of a negotiation in order to reduce tensions between multiple parties in other areas,” Kessler said.

    In all, it is clear that U.S. allies in the Indo–Pacific will be expected to contribute more to the common defense in the region, and such efforts will not go unseen.

    With that much in mind, Mills said that he believes the likelihood of an armed conflict would drop, as Trump’s expectations for all nations in the Indo–Pacific would be clear.

    “The likelihood of conflict in the western Pacific decreases significantly under Trump,” Mills said.

    “Why? Because he’s showing clarity and resolve at all times. Clarity and resolve help prevent war. Lack of clarity and resolve creates war.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 11/14/2024 – 23:50

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