Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Tropical Weather Discussion National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami FL
18:05 Coordinated Universal Time Coordinated Universal Time Mon Aug 5 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31 North .
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 12:00 Coordinated Universal Time Coordinated Universal Time surface analysis and satellite imagery through 16:30 Coordinated Universal Tim
SPECIAL FEATURES.
Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 30.2 North 83.2 West at 05/15:00 Coordinated Universal Time Coordinated Universal Time or 30 nautical miles West of Lake City Florida, moving NNE at 7 knots.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 Coordinated Universal Time millibar.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Seas are currently peaking near 12 feet which extends 75 nautical miles Southwest of the center of the storm.
Buoys 42098, which is located right off the Tampa Bay coast, and 42099 were reporting seas 9 to 10 feet at 16:00 Coordinated Universal Time Coordinated Universal Time.
Rainbands associated with Debby are persisting over the eastern Gulf moving into Tampa Bay southward to Ft.
Myers with frequent lightning.
The latest scatterometer data shows gale force winds continue off the Florida Big Bend with strong winds stretching from Apalachicola southward to Naples.
On the forecast track, Debby is expected to have a gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east later today and Tuesday.
The center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight.
Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U. S.
coast later today and continue through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast and Public Advisory, at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.
TROPICAL WAVES.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 34 West from 18 North southward, moving West at 10 knots.
No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 60 West from 19 North southward, moving West at 10 to 15 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07 North to 15 North between 57 West and 66 West .
Scatterometer data depicted strong winds on either side of the wave in the far eastern Caribbean and on the Atlantic side of the Windward Islands.
Seas range 8 to 9 feet on the Atlantic side of the Islands.
Meanwhile, the convection with this system has become disorganized since yesterday.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days.
MONSOON TROUGH/Inter Tropical Conversion Zone.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 18 North 16 West to 13 North 33 West to 08 North 44 West .
The Inter Tropical Conversion Zone extends from 08 North 44 West to 08 North 51 West .
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08 North to 14 North between 17 West and 27 West and from 06 North to 08 North between 45 West and 49 West .
GULF OF MEXICO.
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debby.
Outside of Debby, conditions across the Gulf are quiescent with light to gentle winds and slight seas.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby is near 30.2 North 83.2 West at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 7 knots.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots, and the minimum central pressure is 979 Coordinated Universal Time millibar.
Debby will move inland to 31.0 North 82.5 West this evening, inland to 31.7 North 81.5 West Tue morning, 31.9 North 80.6 West Tue evening, 32.1 North 79.7 West Wed morning, 32.4 North 79.2 West Wed evening, and 33.0 North 79.0 West Thu morning.
Debby will move inland near 34.6 North 79.1 West by early Fri.
As Debby continues to move Northeast of the area, a ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
CARIBBEAN SEA.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave currently approaching the Windward Islands.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean, South of 12 North between 76 West and 83 West .
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted moving across the ABC islands ahead of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles.
The latest scatterometer data this morning depicted strong winds across the south central Caribbean along with south of Hispaniola.
Seas to 8 feet are noted off the coast of Colombia.
Seas 4 to 6 feet are noted across the rest of the central and eastern basin.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southeast winds prevail across the Northwest basin with seas ranging 2 to 3 feet.
For the forecast, strong winds offshore Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela will diminish by today as the aforementioned wave approaches.
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debbie that will move inland into the Southeast U. S.
today, then possibly impact waters offshore FL starting tonight.
In the western Atlantic, an outer rainband associated with Debby extends off the South Florida coast across the northern Bahamas to 31 North .
The latest scatterometer data from this morning depicted strong winds off the Northeast Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail West of 70 West .
Seas are already up to 9 feet off the Northeast Florida coast according to Buoy 41112, with Buoy 41010 reporting 8 feet seas.
Off the central and southern Florida coast, seas are 4 to 5 feet.
Otherwise, the rest of the western Atlantic is experiencing 4 to 6 feet seas.
Meanwhile, surface ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 10:26 Coordinated Universal Time millibar high pressure near 34 North 62 West.
This is giving way to gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the Atlantic.
Light to gentle winds are noted off the Africa coast around the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas range 4 to 7 feet across the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic.
For the forecast West of 55 West , Tropical Storm Debby is near 30.2 North 83.2 West at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 7 knots.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots, and the minimum central pressure is 979 millibar.
Debby will move inland to
31.0 North 82.5 West this evening, inland to
31.7 North 81.5 West Tue morning,
31.9 North 80.6 West Tue evening,
32.1 North 79.7 West Wed morning,
32.4 North 79.2 West Wed evening,
and
33.0 North 79.0 West Thu morning.
Debby will move inland near 34.6 North 79.1 West by early Fri.
Strong South to nar-gale winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters North of 29 North and West of 75 West through Thu, with tropical storm conditions offshore the Northeast Florida coast tonight.
Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong East winds are expected tonight.