000
WTNT35 KNHC 121746
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL052024
2:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time Mon Aug 12 2024
- AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
SUMMARY OF 2:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 15.5 NORTH 56.4 WEST
ABOUT 375 MILES, 600 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 670 MILES, 1080 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MILES PER HOUR, 55 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT WEST, OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MILES PER HOUR, 43 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MILLIBAR, 29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- Guadeloupe
- Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
- Sint Maarten
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
- Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
- For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
- For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 2:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 56.4 West.
- The system is moving toward the west near 26 Miles Per Hour, (43 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A westward to west northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
- On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.
- Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 Miles Per Hour, (55 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts. - Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.
- Formation chance through 48 hours high near 100 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days high near 100 percent.
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 Millibar, (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
RAINFALL:
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
- For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
- Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
- Windward Islands 1 to 4 inches
- Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE:
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including Saint Thomas, St.John, and Saint Croix.
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF:
- Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagenroot
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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