000
WTNT35 KNHC 130831
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST 09:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 16.2 NORTH 61.3 WEST
ABOUT 10 MILES, 15 KILOMETERS SOUTHEAST, OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MILES, 565 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MILES PER HOUR, 65 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT WEST, OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MILES PER HOUR, 31 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MILLIBAR, 29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- Guadeloupe
- Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
- Sint Maarten
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
- Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
- For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
- For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 500 AM AST (09:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the west near 20 Miles Per Hour, (31 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A west northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
- On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
- After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 40 Miles Per Hour, (65 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.
- Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
- Saint Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 53 Miles Per Hour, (85 Kilometers Per Hour).
- The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 Millibar, (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
RAINFALL:
- Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
- For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
- Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
- Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
- Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
STORM SURGE:
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including Saint Thomas, St. John, and Saint Croix.
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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