000
WTNT35 KNHC 141152
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Wed Aug 14 2024
- FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SUMMARY OF 8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 19.8 NORTH 67.2 WEST
ABOUT 125 MILES, 200 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST, OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 MILES PER HOUR, 110 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST, OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MILES PER HOUR, 26 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MILLIBAR, 29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques and Culebra
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
- For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
- For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 Miles Per Hour, (26 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A turn toward the north northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through today.
- Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 Miles Per Hour, (110 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
- Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 Kilometers) from the center.
- The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 991 Millibar (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
- Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours.
- Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours.
STORM SURGE:
- Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including Saint Thomas, Saint John, and Saint Croix.
- For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
- These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.
Current subscribers: