VANESSA BATTAGLIA: Tim Walz is the Chinese Communist Party’s useful idiot
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VANESSA BATTAGLIA: Tim Walz is the Chinese Communist Party’s useful idiot


Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is a conflicted individual. Influenced at a young age through a Harvard-sponsored China teaching-tourism program, Walz maintains a lifelong dedication to China fueled by fun experiences in his youth. His early dreams for China’s liberation from communist rule have not worked out, yet he has plodded along through the last 30 years in deference to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in his business and political dealings. In other words, he is the perfect VP pick to produce an America-last, doublethinking, emotionally invested, China-forward agenda.

Already a member of the Army National Guard, Walz sought and was one of the first-ever to receive a year-long WorldTeach job in China in 1989. He felt that “China was coming.” Somehow, the Army National Guard permitted this extended trip to a non-allied country during Walz’ contract, and did not recall him even after the Tiananmen Square massacre in the months leading to Desert Shield.

Walz was bought off with trinkets. He noted of his initial time in China as a school teacher that “they gave me more gifts than I could bring home. It was an excellent experience,” blithely unaware that he was in the process of being groomed and won over. “No matter how long I live, I’ll never be treated that well again,” Walz noted eerily about the overseas stint during a time of historic unrest.

Walz selects tasteful attire for chaperoning school children.

In a critique of the CCP, Walz said at the conclusion of the teaching gig of China that “if they had the proper leadership, there are no limits on what they could accomplish.” A fine hypothesis in 1990, but the fundamental leadership under the CCP has not changed. Accordingly, nothing else about China’s circumstances has meaningfully changed. Yet Walz pressed ahead in doing business with the same adversarial communist government of China.

He soon formed a business in 1994 accompanying school children to see the China of poor “leadership.” The CCP, evidently overlooking Walz’s disapproval, welcomed his business “with a special invitation from the Chinese government.” Remarkably, Walz was able to create this politically fraught venture at the age of 30, with no prior business experience in China, or in general. That the Chinese government “paid a large part of the cost” of these trips suggests strong endorsement and control of the activities.

Walz revealed logical contradictions in explaining his intentions for these student trips. He told the Nebraska Star-Herald in 1993 that he wanted the Chinese people oppressed under communism to “see what’s on the outside” by meeting his American students. But he also advised his students before embarking to “downplay their American-ness” to “avoid stereotypes the Chinese have that every American is rich.” Apparently to Walz, to be American is to be “rich,” and that is a bad thing – even if the goal is for Chinese to witness what America’s about.

One of the trips escorting students doubled as his honeymoon. Fitting; he chose the 5th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre for his wedding day as “he wanted to have a date he’ll always remember.” Gwen Whipple was either a very understanding bride-to-be, or into it. Walz would go on to co-sponsor Congressional resolutions condemning China’s censorship of events related to Tiananmen Square. Evidently a bloody mass murder event was great enough for his wedding date but terrible enough to censure in contradiction of a big portion of his professional past.

Also: since the CCP has had a long record of censoring any reference to the Tiananmen Square event including imprisoning violators, why would it sponsor and endorse a business led by a man who publicly memorialized the event with his own wedding? This dispensation for Walz can only be explained by special status, dismissal in the court of public opinion as an un-serious person, or both.

Walz is proud of his China ties, citing his experience as credentials for dealing with the CCP. In an extended video shared by Michael Sobolik on X, Walz says of the CCP that “if we’re on the same sheet of music, two of the world’s great super-powers… there’s many collaborative things we can do together.” Walz uses CCP-friendly rhetoric by lumping the US and China together as “two great super-powers.” As well, Walz in this remark has abandoned his rejection of the CCP 35 years ago, and feels that it is possible to be on the “same sheet of music” with the same CCP now.

On an archived page from Walz’ Congressional website from the period of 2007-2019, he noted that he has “many concerns about China’s poor human rights record. China’s brutal suppression of pro-democracy advocates, Falun Gong practitioners, Christians, and other critics of the ruling Communist Party is an affront to basic human decency. Additionally, I strongly believe in the need to establish rule of law, freeing the Chinese people from facing imprisonment based on the whims of party leaders.” This is the place Walz saw fit to bring school girls from 1994 to 2003, allowing them to independently “see what they want to see, do what they want to do and get there on their own bicycles”?

As Minnesota Governor since 2019, Walz lately finds himself begging for Chinese investment. He noted in the same year that his state’s “farmers remain in desperate need of a U.S. trade deal with China,” upon returning empty-handed from a trade mission there. However history shows that the CCP only wants to sell to us, or profit from our land, but not buy from us.

Natalie Winters broke the story on X that in 2019, Governor Walz was a headline speaker at the national convention of the US China Peoples Friendship Association (USCPFA). This event was hosted in Minnesota, likely because of the strong ties Minnesota has with China.

The national USCPFA was established in 1974; the Minnesota chapter, one of the oldest, was incorporated in the same year. China-oriented “friendship associations” have been identified through think tank studies as influence organizations working through the CCP’s United Front to capture foreign elites.

The Minnesota USCPFA spawned a “Minnesota China Friendship Garden Society” in 2005 to pursue the creation of a China Friendship Garden, ultimately funded with $50k of Minnesota taxpayer dollars in 2014 through Minnesota’s Arts and Cultural Heritage Fund. This is an example of how CCP-linked influence organizations marshal US money to spread pro-CCP messaging.

St. Paul, Minnesota has had a sister-city relationship with Changsha, China since 1988. Sister-city relationships are starting to be recognized by lawmakers as governed by the CCP’s United Front; Indiana recently passed a bill banning sister-city relationships with China, but Governor Walz has yet to do so for Minnesota. In fact, the friendship garden funded with taxpayer money is called the “St.Paul – Changsha China Friendship Garden,” both named after and reinforcing the sister-city agreement.

Representative, and then Governor, Walz could have reflected and subsequently rejected any of these arrangements, as all of the Governors have been warned (and some have since opted) to do. But Governor Walz has not, and so he owns it.

Tim Walz is a truly captured elite, the ideological product of the CCP’s tourism-based charm offensive. He contributed to the system with his own company, which was in turn endorsed and subsidized by the CCP. Walz has given up on his early criticisms of the CCP simply because the CCP did not give up first, and because it’s the easier path. This is the destructive path down which he would let this country slide as VP.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com

 

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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.