Caruzo: My Country Tried Kamala-Style Price Controls -- It Led Venezuela to Disaster
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Caruzo: My Country Tried Kamala-Style Price Controls — It Led Venezuela to Disaster

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly planning to introduce a price control scheme for food and groceries in America should she be elected – an alarming proposal to hear as a Venezuelan, who experienced the rampant shortages and economic chaos of price controls in the flesh.

I lived through the majority of the past 25 years of the disaster known as Venezuela’s socialist revolution, having only been able to flee from Venezuela a couple of months ago. Throughout the past 20 years or so, late socialist dictator Hugo Chávez and then his successor, Nicolás Maduro, signed off on several iterations of price controls in the same style as Harris’s reported policies, each one more disastrous than the last.

The prospect of buying things “cheaper” due to price controls may seem enticing. Who wouldn’t love to save a couple dollars here and there, especially under Bidenflation, which every single one of my American friends has been slammed by. But roughly two decades of price controls in Venezuela ultimately gave forth to severe shortages, rationing, corruption, and just unpleasant experiences and misery all around.

It got so bad that the Maduro regime, while still officially implementing price controls, has quietly stopped enforcing them for the most part. They have not publicly said why but, maybe, they finally realized how disastrous it is.

Venezuela’s price control disaster is a two-decades-old tale that began in early 2003. At that time, Hugo Chávez established severe price controls and imposed strict profit margins on meat, chicken, cheese, sugar, coffee, beans, milk, and other items. I remember that, for a time, the plan seemed to “function,” but this only lasted for so long and, by the late 2000s, shortages of the regulated items were commonplace. The price controls, together with inflation, led to situations where a kilogram of onions was more expensive than a kilogram of meat.

It’s very simple, really: who would want to produce and sell items at a loss? And if you do, how long can you sustain that? Not for long.

By 2011, Chávez doubled down on price controls. In addition to what was already subject to price regulations, Chávez added water, fruit juice, soap, bleach, dishwasher soap, detergent, toiletries like shampoo soap and deodorant, toilet paper, and even diapers to the list.

The new price control scheme sought to punish “capitalist” traders who “speculated” against the people by further imposing disciplinary actions should they disrespect the profit margins established by the socialist regime. Chávez said that the regulatory scheme was a new mechanism for the “transition to socialism” and a socialist economy that puts an end to the “vices of capitalism.”

Hugo Chávez died in 2013, but unfortunately, the price controls did not die with him.

If Chávez had doubled down on price controls before dying, Maduro tripled down on what he inherited. The rest is a tale you may already know: severe ID-based rationing of the regulated items and the implementation of fingerprint scanners to further clamp down on regulations, and just sheer socialist absurdity.

File/Customers walk through a public market in the Quinta Crespo neighborhood of Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 11, 2022. Half of Venezuelan households do not receive enough income to cover the Food Basket, which puts them in a situation of extreme poverty, according to the 2023 Living Conditions Survey released Wednesday, March 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)

To give you an example of how bad it all got with price regulations, in 2015, Maduro regime officials came up with a convoluted math “formula” to set a regulated price for eggs. The price was unrealistic and unsustainable by all measures, to the point that I vividly remember my mother telling me not to throw away the cardboard packaging that the eggs came in because, without it, a nearby market would not sell us eggs. The eggs were so over-regulated that they ended up costing far less than the two pieces of cardboard.

The price regulation of toiletries led to personal situations where I had to get some of them through an off-market “dealer.” These exchanges, often taking place at a street corner near my old apartment, felt like I was doing some shady illegal stuff like purchasing drugs — but no, there I was, buying bar soap to wash my hands and shower, a luxury for when there was actually running water, but that’s a whole other tale.

In late 2018, I went to this store near my home that sold toiletries, perfumes, and other goods in search of soap and shampoo. During those days, the National Guard had staged an “intervention” on the store and they were only letting people purchase one item regardless of what it was. After a long, long line, I ended up only being able to purchase something that was not exactly shampoo, but it would have to do for both me and my brother to wash our hair with.

The price regulations also hit medicine, leading to severe shortages of even the most basic pills, as no one could realistically manufacture them at a loss forever. This led to inhumane situations where I could not even find Omeprazole for my mom’s stomach woes, or antacids during the times when she was receiving chemotherapy for her liver cancer  — an incomplete treatment, by the way, as the Maduro regime, which controlled medicine imports, had long caused a health crisis through socialist mismanagement and stopped importing certain treatments. Maduro’s policies condemned thousands, including my mother, to death due to a lack of the complete required life-saving treatment. This continues to this day.

Antacids were also hard to find after the Maduro regime banned them alongside other items to prevent protesters from using them. As I could not find antacids, all I could do was give her water with baking soda.

The ID and fingerprint-based rationing of items also created an informal bartering system. For example, I was entitled to purchase a certain amount of diapers or baby food per week. I had no need to purchase either of them because there were no babies in my family, but there were parents who needed them.

What was common practice during those days was that I’d spend my weekly diaper allotment for someone else, who would in turn buy something I needed from his or her weekly allotments. Then, once we were out of the eyes of the National Guard or police, we’d trade the items and settle monetary differences.

What was the socialist regime’s “solution” to this? Demanding that parents show their babies’ birth certificates to be eligible to purchase diapers.

RELATED: Billboard of Maduro Set Ablaze Amid Venezuelan Election Protests

If you as a company would not produce toilet paper (at a loss), what was the Maduro regime’s response? Forcefully occupy your factory to make it produce toilet paper at gunpoint, leaving you with the losses.

Certain food companies that produced regulated items like rice or Venezuela’s flagship corn flour were able to offset some of the losses by also producing variants or other products that were not subject to the regulation, such as a specialized corn flour mixture to make cachapas (a sort of corn pancake). The Maduro regime responded to this practice by banning the production of said items.

As I mentioned, these regulations, while still active, are not being enforced, as the Maduro regime has other pressing matters to worry about, such as negotiating with the Biden administration or stealing sham elections. This means that toilet paper, eggs, and other once hard-to-find items can now be easily found on shelves, but for capitalist U.S. dollars instead of socialist bolivars.

If you need another example of the consequences of price controls, look to Cuba’s Castro regime, which announced new price controls in July as part of its “war-time economy” proclamation that seeks to “save socialism” in Cuba, a nation ruined by six decades of price communism.

Argentina, under the socialist government of alleged wife-beater Alberto Fernández, also insisted on price controls throughout Fernández’s disastrous presidency, claiming they would help fight off inflation — which they didn’t. President Javier Milei eliminated the price controls in January, among other policies eliminating socialist economic micromanaging, and inflation in Argentina has dramatically reduced every month as a result.

Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.

Originally Posted At www.breitbart.com


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

The post North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead appeared first on Insider Paper.