*** DNC Livewire Night 1 *** Bidens to Sing Swan Song, Hillary Clinton to Crow About Glass Ceiling Eight Years After Defeat
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*** DNC Livewire Night 1 *** Bidens to Sing Swan Song, Hillary Clinton to Crow About Glass Ceiling Eight Years After Defeat

Democrats are partying it up with all their elitist celebrity friends in Chicago, Illinois, for the Democratic National Convention (DNC), but the first night of primetime programming on Monday evening is going to hit a somber tone for the party.

Sitting President Joe Biden — who was just toppled by a coup from within his own party after winning the Democrat presidential nomination thanks to more than 14 million primary voters in 2024 — will, instead of, on Thursday, accept that nomination voters gave to him, deliver a swan song address saying goodbye to the nation as president on Monday night and urge people to support his vice president, Kamala Harris, for president in 2024. Less than one month ago, Biden was still reeling from his late June debate with former President Donald Trump and, though he survived for several weeks thereafter, finally succumbed to the pressures inside his party to forgo the will of the voters and step aside as a candidate. Harris seized the opportunity and quickly amassed power, running an insider campaign, with nobody actually voting for her, to win the nomination quickly in an entirely behind-closed-doors process.

What Was That?! Biden Coughs, Stumbles, Rambles His Way Through Debate After Week of Rest and Prep

Courtesy of CNN Presidential Debate

Biden himself has been seen in public very little since Harris successfully effectuated this coup against him. He has done an interview, made some minor comments to the press, and appeared alongside Harris in an economic address, but, for the most part, he has been hidden. This will be the biggest stage he has had since then, so, what he says and does — and what he does not say and does not do — will be very interesting to watch. Furthermore, Biden will be introduced by his daughter, Ashley Biden — who will speak after Biden’s wife and the nation’s current first lady, Dr. Jill Biden — so, the nation will begin saying goodbye to the whole Biden family Monday evening.

In addition to the Bidens’ farewell addresses, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton — herself a former first lady — is expected to address the party faithful on Monday evening. Democrats will need to wait until Wednesday to hear from her husband, former President Bill Clinton — sources say he was close to being stuck on Monday too, but no cigar — but Hillary Clinton is expected to, per CNN, talk about how she almost broke the “glass ceiling” but failed in 2016. Hillary Clinton, of course, lost to Trump in a landslide that year, and she is expected to — since there is another woman, this time the first black and Asian woman, to lead the ticket — talk about the historic nature of Harris’s candidacy.

As all of these moments and more play out on stage at the DNC, Democrats are also grappling with the legitimacy of coronating Harris and a rising leftist protest mentality against her from the base. Outside the wall the Democrats erected around their convention grounds, tens of thousands of protesters are marching through the streets of Chicago, ripping Harris to shreds and comparing her to a murdering, genocidal maniac because she is part of Biden’s administration, which has been sending weapons to Israel.

WATCH: Cornel West Leads “Abandon Harris” Procession at Pro-Palestinian Protest at DNC in Chicago

Follow along here, on Breitbart News, for live updates on news and analysis as the events of the first evening of the DNC play out.

UPDATE 11:38 p.m. ET:

As Biden continues to ramble on from the stage about the Charlottesville hoax, reporters are openly mocking the DNC for the failed programming regiment:

UPDATE 11:34 p.m. ET:

Apparently the DNC cut two primetime speakers given how long this is going:

And they supposedly cut James Taylor as well:

Reporters are also noting how disorganized the DNC structure of programming has been:

UPDATE 11:28 p.m. ET:

Burying Biden this late at night is insulting to him and his inner circle, and that bad blood with Harris is starting to seep out into the public:

UPDATE 11:26 p.m. ET:

Ashley Biden finishes her introduction and Joe Biden finally takes the stage–well after his bedtime.

UPDATE 11:22 p.m. ET:

Ashley Biden calls her father the “OG Girl Dad,” and tells stories about remembering him as a lawmaker and a father. Ashley Biden also emphasizes her father’s work with women.

UPDATE 11:19 p.m. ET:

“Kamala and Tim, you will win,” First Lady Jill Biden says.

The speech from Jill Biden is devoid of any substance or actual ideas. “We can’t afford to lose,” she says, though.

“We will fight and we will win together,” she says.

And with that, Jill Biden is done. They had the First Lady up and gone within five minutes. Now, Ashley Biden–Joe’s daughter–is on stage to introduce her father.

UPDATE 11:15 p.m. ET:

Finally. Finally. Finally. At long last, Dr. Jill Biden has taken the stage after a strange introduction video of a crying young girl introducing her.

For whatever it’s worth, the Democrats burying Joe Biden–the sitting president of the United States–close to midnight eastern for his speech timing should infuriate him and all the Biden family. They’re trying to eliminate him. It remains to be seen if he will let them.

UPDATE 11:07 p.m. ET:

After Warnock’s long, drawn-out speech, now the Democrats are bringing up Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) to speak. Man, this event is going way, way, way too long on just the first night. Talk about burnout.

UPDATE 10:53 p.m. ET:

Beshear finally wraps up his policy-free address, and now the Democrats are bringing out Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) to address the snooze-fest. This first night is dragging on and on and on and on. It’s almost 11 p.m. on the east coast, and still no Jill Biden yet–and she goes, then Joe Biden’s daughter Ashley Biden then Joe Biden himself. It’s going to be a long, long, long, long, long night. The longer this drags on the more the Democrats lose people.

UPDATE 10:47 p.m. ET:

Democrats are leaning in heavily on abortion, having several people tell stories about abortions they got. Now, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is speaking pushing for pro-abortion policies in his state as well–all while he attacks Trump yet again.

UPDATE 10:39 p.m. ET:

As Democrats cede the high ground and keep viciously attacking Trump from the main stage of the convention, there is a deeper through-line emerging in their programming: Democrats are revealing their kryptonite. They are concerned about losing working class voters. The speeches from AOC and from the UAW’s Fain betrayed this concern of theirs, and seems to indicate they understand that this election will in fact come down to working class voters in three particular states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Trump holds everything he had in 2020 and flips back Georgia and Arizona and flips Nevada as polls indicate he will, all he needs is one of those three states to put him over the top of 270 electoral votes.

It’s very interesting that the Democrats seem to have a theme running through at least some of their speeches, which is this false narrative that Harris is somehow from the working or middle class–she absolutely is not but facts never got in the way of a good Democrat narrative–and that if elected she would fight for the workers. That second point, the more important one, is also quite clearly untrue but the fact Democrats have to keep saying it–in AOC’s case screaming it–seems to reveal they are concerned about this bloc of voters and they are trying to convince anyone who might listen themselves included that they are not losing them.

How and whether Trump seizes on this weakness Democrats are openly admitting will determine his fate, the fate of the nation, and the fate of the world as we know it.

UPDATE 10:21 p.m. ET:

Raskin argues that Democrats are running against “banana Republicans who have converted [Abraham] Lincoln’s party into a dangerous cult of personality.”

Raskin is going deep on January 6, making it the centerpiece of his speech here.

UPDATE 10:20 p.m. ET:

Now, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) is speaking, calling it the “democracy convention” and the “freedom convention.”

UPDATE 10:17 p.m. ET:

Now the Democrats are playing a twisted parody of a Law and Order promo attacking Trump.

UPDATE 10:16 p.m. ET:

Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is speaking now. He calls Project 2025 “Jim Crow 2.0.” Whatever you think of Project 2025, it is definitely not that.

UPDATE 10:04 p.m. ET:

Now Clinton is basking in the glow of “lock him up!” chants about Trump and rattling off the greatest hits of anti-Trump hoaxes about dictators, veterans, and more.

UPDATE 10:03 p.m. ET:

Now Clinton is attacking Trump over the New York convictions.

UPDATE 9:59 p.m. ET:

Hillary Clinton is really, really leaning into the women message, arguing that women throughout history including her mother and Harris’s mother and others would say “keep going.”

UPDATE 9:57 p.m. ET:

Clinton is hyping women getting the right to vote more than a century ago, connecting that history to now where a woman again will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024–after she did in 2016 and failed.

UPDATE 9:55 p.m. ET:

Hillary Clinton is speaking now, and she opens by saying “let’s salute President Biden.”

“He has been democracy’s champion at home and abroad,” she said, adding ironically that Biden brought among other things “competency” to the White House.

UPDATE 9:41 p.m. ET:

AOC says that “America has before us a rare and precious opportunity,” and she again repeats the lie that Harris is somehow “from the middle class.”

Harris is not from the middle class–she grew up extremely privileged in Montreal, as Breitbart News’s Emma-Jo Morris has detailed.

AOC also says that Trump would “sell this country for a dollar” and is yelling about Trump being in the pocket of big business somehow.

UPDATE 9:38 p.m. ET:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is speaking now.

UPDATE 9:34 p.m. ET:

Fain continues to lie by claiming that Harris stands with the working class, then he rips off his coat to show a tee shirt reading “Trump is a scab.” Fain’s fake attempt to emulate Hulk Hogan from the RNC a month ago is pretty embarrassing, but the fact of the matter is Harris repeatedly sided against blue collar and auto workers including in her push for electric vehicles, her opposition to eliminating NAFTA with the USMCA, and her opposition to tariffs to protect American jobs.

UPDATE 9:29 p.m. ET:

United Autoworkers (UAW) president Shawn Fain is speaking now, openly endorsing Kamala Harris for president and Tim Walz for vice president. He also thanks Joe Biden for walking a picket line with the UAW.

UPDATE 9:25 p.m. ET:

This is an unbelievable example of media bias and extremism and proves Trump’s concerns about ABC News moderating a debate correct:

How Linsey Davis can, with a straight face, make these comments is truly unbelievable and should be a major national scandal. In a just world, she would not be allowed to moderate the debate after this. It’s not a just world, but that’s what should happen.

UPDATE 9:22 p.m. ET:

Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr–who coached Olympics basketball for Team USA–is speaking now.

UPDATE 9:15 p.m. ET:

Harris has made a surprise appearance on stage at the DNC to try to get everyone fired up from the slumber that the convention has fallen into.

She only spoke for a few minutes to try to bring the energy up.

Jake Tapper on CNN sounds as though he’s elated, saying the “crowd is ecstatic.”

“The crowd is really excited here,” Tapper says.

“It’s electric,” Dana Bash agrees.

The media is desperate to get the energy going and the fact they had to drag their nominee out on the first night of the convention to get people going again is pure desperation.

UPDATE 9:07 p.m. ET:

Hochul attacks Trump as a “fraud, a philanderer, and a felon.”

“If you think you’re tired of Donald Trump, talk to a New Yorker,” Hochul says as she rattles off the greatest hits of leftist political attacks against Trump. “It’s no wonder he had to flee to Mar-a-Lago. Sorry about that Florida. Sorry about that.”

“Donald Trump has not spent much time in New York lately except to get convicted of 34 felonies,” Hochul says.

The fact that Hochul is spending the vast majority of her time–basically all of it–attacking Trump and not touting Harris or Democrats is interesting. That’s the entire focus of the Democrat campaign at this point: Attack Trump, nonstop.

UPDATE 9:03 p.m. ET:

Hochul, the New York governor, is speaking now using an Irish accent to open her address while she talks about Irish immigrant ancestors.

UPDATE 8:57 p.m. ET:

it’s almost 9 p.m. on the east coast and this convention feels completely and totally dead in terms of energy. Still no big names have taken the stage, and we’re awaiting Hillary Clinton, Dr. Jill Biden, and of course, President Joe Biden. Several other big name politicians are set to speak tonight as well too like Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, and more. This is dragging on unnecessarily and people on the east coast are going to start turning this off and not even watching it.

UPDATE 8:37 p.m. ET:

The Lt. Governor of Minnesota who is also the DNC convention co-chair Peggy Flanagan once posted that she believes Mount Rushmore is a “symbol of white supremacy”:

UPDATE 8:28 p.m. ET:

Things are going just wonderfully for Democrats at this very low energy convention:

Whatever energy there might be among Democrats there is certainly not translating through to a national audience via television. The program has been boring, disjointed, unclear, and deflating. If this is their campaign, they have problems and big ones.

UPDATE 8:24 p.m. ET:

At the low energy DNC, Democrats have “gender neutral restrooms”:

Sources familiar with the matter though told Breitbart News there is still a ladies’ room though, despite Ferrechio’s post above.

UPDATE 7:53 p.m. ET:

Breitbart News’s Joel Pollak is inside the United Center reporting live for us:

Pollak says the feel inside is “very sedate”:

UPDATE 7:50 p.m. ET:

Video seems to show a man was severely hurt by protesters outside the DNC:

it appears he has a deep gash on his face under his eye:

UPDATE 7:39 p.m. ET:

The DNC just voted to adopt the party platform that calls to elect Biden–not Harris–as president, and contains at least 19 references to Biden’s “second term,” with no amendments. The convention chair defended this as arguing the platform was adopted before Harris’s and Democrats’ coup against Biden:

UPDATE 7:37 p.m. ET:

Despite Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s comments on CNN claiming the environment is exciting at the DNC, there is hardly anyone inside:

Remember, the sitting PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES and FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES and FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON will all speak tonight very soon. And this place is empty.

UPDATE 7:34 p.m. ET:

Now the DNC is holding a show “vote” formally making Walz the vice presidential candidate, again even though nobody voted for him or Harris for president or vice president.

UPDATE 7:18 p.m. ET:

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, who ran for president twice, is appearing on stage at the DNC now. He is confined to a wheelchair after a Parkinson’s diagnosis in 2017, but has long been a leader in the Democrat Party and Civil Rights Movement. It does not appear as though Jackson is speaking, as he left the stage after a moment up there.

UPDATE 7:11 p,m. ET:

CNN is now reporting now that when radical leftists breached the Secret Service barriers outside the DNC, a total of four people were arrested–and one additional person was detained. That’s even more than Breitbart News had originally confirmed. This represents a real gnarly beginning to the DNC.

UPDATE 7:08 p.m. ET:

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is railing against “white police” from the main stage of the DNC right now, referring to a story from the 1960’s about a black woman she says was blocked from voting. Waters is celebrating the fact that Kamala Harris is a black woman, saying black women have come quite a long way over the past several decades.

It’s worth noting though the top three speakers at the DNC on Monday night are all white–Joe Biden, Jill Biden, and Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE 6:58 p.m, ET:

Well, isn’t this wonderful:

UPDATE 6:55 p.m. ET:

Also speaking this evening is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). It’s a pretty remarkable turn of events for the leader of the s0-called “Squad,” even after two other Squad members–Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO)–lost their primaries this year.

UPDATE 6:38 p.m. ET:

The Democratic National Convention is now officially underway as Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison and the Convention’s chairwoman opened the floor action inside.

But outside, radical leftist protesters burst through a U.S. Secret Service wall barrier built to protect those inside in a massive security failure right from the get-go. The breach led to at least one arrest already and police officers in riot gear came to confront and repel the protesters back out and then police officers restored the barrier for now.

The chaos in Chicago is just a glimpse of what will come to every neighborhood in America if Democrats win this election.

Matthew Perdie/Breitbart News

Originally Posted At www.breitbart.com


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Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Key Battle On Election-Betting Market Heads To Appeals Court

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

A legal battle over the future of a website’s election prediction market is set to continue on Sept. 19, when an appeals court hears the case of Kalshi v. CFTC, a decision that could reshape how Americans engage in political discourse.

The three-judge U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will be considering whether individuals should be permitted to purchase contracts to participate in predictive markets that trade on the outcome of elections. If so, should these markets be regulated like other financial exchanges and commodity markets or as a form of gambling?

New York-based KalshiEx LLC argues that the elections market section of its website is a derivatives trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on projected outcomes of events, such as elections, and should be regulated no differently than grain futures that investors purchase as hedges against price fluctuations.

These markets provide a “public benefit” by gauging public sentiment in real-time, Kalshi maintains, a valuable guide for policymakers, politicians, and pundits in charting the public pulse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, argues that Kalshi’s platform blurs the line between commodity trading and gambling, and should not be viewed the same as futures contracts.

The commission maintains that Kalshi’s market puts it in a position to be a de facto elections regulator, which it is not designed to be. Such contracts provide no “public interest” and, in fact, pose a risk to electoral integrity and could potentially incentivize manipulation and fraud, the CFTC argues.

Those conflicting contentions are the core of what the appellate panel will deliberate on before it decides to lift or sustain its stay on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb’s Sept. 6 ruling in favor of the platform. Judge Cobbs found that the defendant, CFTC, exceeded its statutory authority as a Wall Street regulator when it issued a September 2023 order stopping Kalshi from going online with its market because it is a “prohibited gambling activity.”

Judge Cobbs on Sept. 12 also denied CFTC’s motion for a stay while it mounts an appeal.

After the initial stay request was rejected, Kalshi wasted little time getting its market online. Attorneys for the CFTC were also busy, and within hours secured a stay from the appeals court, setting the stage for the 2 p.m. Sept. 19 hearing.

In the brief time before trading was paused “pending court process” late Sept. 12, more than 65,000 contracts had been sold on the questions, “Which party will control the House?” and “Which party will control the Senate?

The appellate panel will essentially be engaged in a technical legal debate over the definition of “gaming” and “gambling,” and how they would apply, in this case, to any potential regulation.

In its Sept. 13 filing calling for the stay to be lifted, Kalshi rejected CFTC’s definition that trading on election prediction markets is “gaming.”

“An election is not a game. It is not staged for entertainment or for sport. And, unlike the outcome of a game, the outcome of an election carries vast extrinsic and economic consequences,” it maintains.

The CFTC said in its Sept. 14 filing that because “Kalshi’s contracts involve staking something of value on the outcome of elections, they fall within the ordinary definition of ‘gaming.’”

‘Horse Has Left the Barn’

Regardless of how the panel rules, “The horse has left the barn,” said data consultant Mick Bransfield, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who trades on Kalshi’s website and purchased a “Senate control” contract.

There are ample opportunities to place election wagers on offshore websites such as New Zealand-based PredictIt, which imposes strict spending limits; on websites such as Polymarket, a New York-based platform that cannot legally accept wagers from within the United States; or the American Civics Exchange, where businesses and high net worth individuals can purchase “binary derivative contracts” through proxies tied to policy and electoral outcomes as hedges against “unpredictable electoral, legislative, and regulatory events.”

Predictit.org/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

“Elections predictive markets have been around since 1988 in the United States,” Bransfield told The Epoch Times, adding that the issue is “more nuanced than people realize.”

That nuance, said Carl Allen, author of The Polls Weren’t Wrong, is that Kalshi’s platform would be the first federally regulated U.S.-based predictive elections market open to all individuals without spending limits.

“To me, the question is not should it be regulated, the question is how? I think that is where we are,” Allen, who writes about predictive markets on substack, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s challenging to get your arms around this because there are so many organizations involved with it,” he said. “We’re reaching a really interesting point with sports betting going from totally disallowed, except for in Vegas and a few brick-and-mortar [stores], to being everywhere; crypto currency drastically growing; ETFs [Exchange-Traded Funds] getting big;” and Kashi attempting to open a predictive market on election outcomes.

Prediction market trader and Kalshi community manager Jonathan Zubkoff, who also writes about predictive markets and wagering, said the CFTC’s claim that elections markets are betting websites is mistaken.

“It’s not the same as sports betting” where there is “a line posted and billions of dollars are traded against it across different time zones,” prompting the odds to fluctuate, he told The Epoch Times.

“If you are looking at a line [to bet] on a Friday night for a Sunday game, there’s no hedge whatsoever.”

In elections markets, “there actually is a hedge” that gives people an opportunity to put money where “their bias is,” Zubkoff said.

Coalition For Political Forecasting Executive Director Pratik Chougule said another difference between sports betting and other types of gambling and predictive elections markets is that “unlike many other forms of speculation, the wagering here has a real public interest benefit. These markets inform in a way that is very beneficial.”

In October 2023, Chougule told The Epoch Times that elections markets reflect predictive science, citing numerous studies documenting that political betting websites are better indicators of public sentiment than any other measure except the election results themselves, including a study by Professor David Rothschild of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

“Polling is very unreliable,” he said. “And so we basically believe that, in order to promote good forecasting for the public interest, we believe that political betting is one solution to that because, at the end of the day when you have people wagering their own money on the line, that creates incentives that are very hard to replicate through other ways.”

Chougule, who hosts the podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, believes that, while not always accurate, election predictive markets are the best gauge of public sentiment in real-time.

“When they make a prediction, they are putting their money on the line,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear barometer of how an election is going.”

‘Gray Area’ Needs Rules

Chougule said he was “pessimistic” that Kalshi’s elections market would be online by Nov. 5.

“I think when you look at the landscape at the federal and state level, at Congress, at federal agencies, [there is] fear and skepticism and concern about what widespread elections betting could mean for our democratic institutions,” he said. “I don’t agree but it’s a fact.”

Bransfield said he was surprised by Cobb’s ruling against the regulators. “It did not seem the district court would side with Kalshi after the oral arguments in May,” he said. “The judge referred to elections contracts as ‘icky.’ That gave me the assumption that it would be unpalatable to her.”

But there is reason to be deliberative, Bransfield said.

“We should always be concerned about the integrity of our elections but these elections contracts have been around for so long,” he said, noting that more than $1 billion in 2024 U.S. elections contracts have already been purchased in the United Kingdom alone. “All those concerns already exist and have for a long time.”

Certainly, Allen said, “there are a lot of downstream effects that we are going to see from this,” but some fears are unfounded.

Unlike a sports contest where one player can affect the outcome, it would take a widespread concerted effort to “fix” an election, he said. Nevertheless, there is “potential for unscrupulous actors to release a hot tip” that could affect predictive markets.

Allen cited speculation about when former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would end her presidential campaign during the Republican primaries, whether Robert F. Kennedy would pull the plug on his independent presidential campaign, and who both parties would pick as their vice presidential candidates as examples.

“A handful of people knew about [vice president picks] before it was public. It would be financially beneficial for someone to throw a couple [of] thousand dollars into that market,” he said.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) and his wife Akshata Murty (in yellow) at the launch of the Conservative Party general election manifesto at Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire, England, on June 11, 2024. James Manning/PA

The CFTC, in its challenge, noted that bets had been placed on the July 4 British general election date before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced it in May.

“It is very hard to see this gray area without some rules,” Allen said.

“Claiming that betting in elections is going to lead to issues with democracy and election integrity is one of the most ridiculous things I ever heard,” Zubkoff said, calling them “elections integrity dog whistles.”

Critics “are sort of lashing out,” he continued.

“It is a total misunderstanding. As someone who has traded in these markets, I haven’t seen anything that remotely constitutes a threat” to election integrity.

Zubkoff said Kalshi “very clearly has the better arguments” and cited the Supreme Court’s Chevron repeal as momentum that “bodes well for the future” of predictive elections markets.

He believes the appellate court will deny CFTC’s motion to extend the stay, and placed the odds of Kalshi getting a “yes” to go online before November’s elections at 60 percent.

Zubkoff noted that just like predictive elections markets, those odds could change in real-time during the hearing. “I could give you much better odds while listening to the hearing just based on the questions the judges ask,” he said.

Allen said the odds are “better than 60-40” that Kalshi will win its case, before qualifying that prediction with the ultimate hedge: “I don’t know how much money I would put on that.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 09:30

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel's 'technological war'

Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’

Lebanon’s Prime Minister called Thursday for the United Nations to oppose Israel’s “technological war” on his country ahead of a Security Council meeting on exploding devices used by Hezbollah that killed 32 people. Najib Mikati said in a statement the UN Security Council meeting on Friday should “take a firm stance to stop the Israeli […]

The post Lebanon PM urges UN to take firm stance over Israel’s ‘technological war’ appeared first on Insider Paper.

Russia's Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is A Ticking Geopolitical Timebomb

Authored by Antonio Garcia via OilPrice.com,

  • Despite Western sanctions and oil price caps, Russia continues to use an aging “shadow fleet” of tankers to circumvent restrictions, allowing for stable oil exports.

  • Russian oil is now primarily heading to ‘friendly markets’ like China, India, and Turkey.

In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and several other Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, attempting to stop the trade of Russian oil. In December 2022, the G7 countries decided on an oil price cap. However, Russia has found ways to circumvent these sanctions, primarily through the creation of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price caps. Only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet, which was responsible for exports of ~2.8 mb/d of crude and 1.1 mb/d of oil products in March 2024.

Kpler data shows that in April 2024, 83% of crude oil and 46% of petroleum products were shipped on shadow tankers. The shrinking role of the mainstream fleet fundamentally undermines the leverage of the price cap.

The shadow fleet is a collection of aging and often poorly maintained vessels with unclear ownership structures and lack of insurance. The number of old, outdated ships departing from Russia has increased dramatically. The EU has recently introduced legislation aimed at cracking down on the sale of mainstream tankers into the Russian shadow trade, but the problem persists. Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. With 85% of the tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened.

The shadow fleet poses a significant and rising threat to the environment. The aging and underinsured vessels increase the risk of oil spills, a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay. The vessels can cause collisions, leak oil, malfunction, or even sink, posing a threat to other ships, water, and marine life. With estimates suggesting over 1,400 ships have defected to the dark side serving Russia, the potential for environmental damage is substantial. For instance, since the beginning of 2022, 230 shadow fleet tankers have transported Russian crude oil through the Danish straits on 741 occasions. Also, a shadow fleet tanker on its way to load crude in Russia collided with another ship in the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Last year, a fully loaded oil tanker lost propulsion and drifted off the Danish island of Langeland for six hours. Recovery after any potential oil spill could take decades.

Added to the environmental issue, seaborne Russian oil is almost entirely heading to the Asian markets, with India, China, and Turkey being the biggest buyers. In 2023, 86% of oil exports went to friendly countries compared to 40% in 2021, and 84% of petroleum product exports compared to 30% in 2021. This shift in export destinations highlights the changing geopolitical landscape of the oil market due to the sanctions and the rise of the shadow fleet.

Several measures have been proposed to address the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. These include stricter sanctions on individual vessels, increased scrutiny of financial institutions involved in Russian oil deals, and fines that would limit sales or decommission tankers. The G7 countries are taking measures to tighten control over the price cap and further pressure Russia. The US has introduced a series of sanctions against ships and shipowners suspected of violating the price cap. However, concerns remain that these measures could lead to higher energy prices and escalate tensions with Russia. The Danish foreign ministry has stated that “The Russian shadow fleet is an international problem that requires international solutions.”

The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and continue profiting from its oil exports, but it has come at a significant cost. The environmental risks posed by these aging and poorly maintained vessels are alarming, and the shift in oil trade patterns is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Addressing this complex issue will require concerted international efforts and a delicate balance between maintaining sanctions and ensuring stable energy markets. The situation is unsustainable, and the need for action is becoming increasingly urgent.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2024 – 03:30

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with 'super-large' warhead

North Korea claims it tested ballistic missile with ‘super-large’ warhead

North Korea claimed Thursday that its latest weapons test had been of a tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large” warhead, and a strategic cruise missile, state media reported. Leader Kim Jong Un “guided the test-fires”, the official Korean Central News Agency said, of the “new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic […]

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