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Hurricane Gilma Forecast Discussion

NHC

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211443
TCDEP2

Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

This morning, Gilma's structure on satellite has continued to 
improve, with infrared satellite depicting a banding type eye 
appearing intermittently as convection attempts to wrap around the 
estimated center. In addition, we received a 0933 UTC AMSR2 
microwave pass which showed a developing eyewall on both the 89-GHz 
and 37-GHz channels, though with some vertical tilt. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 
T4.5/77-kt, which also matches the latest ADT estimate. Thus, 
Gilma's initial intensity will be raised to 75 kt for this 
advisory. 

Gilma appears to be moving just north of due west, but slower than 
earlier, estimated at 280/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large 
subtropical ridge poleward of the hurricane should continue to steer 
it generally westward to west-northwestward. However, this ridge 
becomes positioned a little farther northwest with time as a subtle 
weakness north of the storm forms, resulting in a 
slower-than-typical forward motion for this part of the Eastern 
Pacific basin. The latest track guidance this cycle is notably 
slower and more equatorward than the previous cycle, and the NHC 
track was shifted in that direction, but not quite as far as the 
reliable track consensus guidance TVCE and HCCA. As mentioned in the 
previous discussion, if these southward trends continue, further 
southward adjustments may be necessary.  

With the improvement of Gilma's inner core structure this morning, 
the hurricane may be poised to intensify more over the next day or 
two. This scenario is shown by the recent hurricane-regional model 
guidance, which shows more intensification than the prior cycle. 
Given the reduction in vertical wind shear noted in the recent SHIPS 
guidance and as Gilma remains over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures 
for the next 48 h, the NHC intensity forecast now shows 
intensification into a Category 3 hurricane over this time period. 
This intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is in 
good agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid. However there 
remain some hurricane-regional models that show even more 
intensification (e.g., HAFS-A). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures 
begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is expected to begin 
thereafter, though less than the previous advisory due to the 
further south track over warmer ocean waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 16.0N 122.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 16.2N 123.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 16.8N 125.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.9N 127.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 17.1N 128.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 17.3N 130.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Alaka

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Chinese Jets Tail US Spy Plane While Making 1st Pass Over Taiwan Strait In 5 Months

Chinese Jets Tail US Spy Plane While Making 1st Pass Over Taiwan Strait In 5 Months

Chinese Jets Tail US Spy Plane While Making 1st Pass Over Taiwan Strait In 5 Months

China says it sent warplanes to monitor and mirror a US military reconnaissance plane as it flew over the contested Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, according to statements of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command identified the aircraft as a US Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol plane. A statement said the PLA “organized warplanes to tail and monitor the U.S. aircraft’s flight and handled it in accordance with the law.”

US Navy file image: P-8A Poseidon, capable of hunting submarines

“Theater command troops will remain on constant high alert and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability,” the statement added.

The US Navy’s 7th Fleet later confirmed, “The aircraft’s transit of the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” It asserted in response to Beijing’s condemnation: “The United States military flies, sails and operates anywhere international law allows.”

“The Poseidon on Tuesday encountered foreign military forces, but the flight was not affected,” the US Navy indicated. “All interactions with foreign military forces during the transit were consistent with international norms and did not impact the operation,” the statement noted.

Tuesday’s fly through marked the US Navy’s first aerial transit of the vital strait in five months. Days prior, the German frigate Baden-Wuerttemberg and support ship Frankfurt am Main made their own transit.

The German pass-through was much rarer, a first in over two decades, and suggests deepening NATO forces’ involvement in the Taiwan issue.

This past summer, Taiwan’s foreign ministry had stated that it “welcomes NATO’s continuous increase in attention to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years, and its active strengthening of exchanges and interactions with countries in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Median line incursions by Chinese military assets have seen an uptick ever since the election victory last January of new Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, which Beijing has called a ‘separatist’. China’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly vowed that “The determination of China to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity remains unrelenting.”

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Wed, 09/18/2024 – 21:20

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The US Justice Department on Wednesday said it had neutralized a cyber-attack network that affected 200,000 devices worldwide, alleging it was run by hackers backed by the Chinese government. The malware infected a wide range of consumer devices, including routers, cameras, digital video recorders and network-attached storage devices, according to a US statement, with the […]

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Nine US Senators Launch Inquiry Into Kamala Harris’ Failure As ‘Broadband Czar’

Nine US Senators Launch Inquiry Into Kamala Harris’ Failure As ‘Broadband Czar’

FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr criticized the Biden-Harris administration, pointing out that their $42.45 billion program to bring high-speed internet to rural America has yet to connect a single person. He said it had been 1,038 days, and “not a single person has been connected” since the program debuted.

Carr on X pushed out a post in the early afternoon of Wednesday featuring a new letter from nine US senators, including Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), stressing concern about VP Harris’ time as ‘broadband czar’ entirely mismanaged the $42.45 billion program to connect rural America. Considering that not a single home in rural America has been connected, the senators warned that the failures are piling up for VP Harris, citing her failure as ‘border czar.’

Dear Vice President Harris:

We are writing to express serious concerns regarding your role as the Biden-Harris administration’s “broadband czar” and the mismanagement of federal broadband initiatives under your leadership. It appears that your performance as “broadband czar” has mirrored your performance as “border czar,” marked by poor management and a lack of effectiveness despite significant federal broadband investments and your promises to deliver broadband to rural areas.

As you are aware, Congress, through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, provided the National Telecommunications and Information Administration with $42.45 billion for the Broadband, Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program. These funds are intended to provide broadband access to unserved communities, particularly those in rural areas.

In 2021, you were specifically tasked by President Biden to lead the administration’s efforts to expand broadband services to unserved Americans. And at the time, you stated, “we can bring broadband to rural America today.” Despite your assurances over three years ago, rural and unserved communities continue to wait for the connectivity they were promised. Under your leadership, not a single person has been connected to the internet using the $42.45 billion allocated for the BEAD program. Indeed, Politico recently reported on “the messy, delayed rollout of” this program.

Instead of focusing on delivering broadband services to unserved areas, your administration has used the BEAD program to add partisan, extralegal requirements that were never envisioned by Congress and have obstructed broadband deployment. By imposing burdensome climate change mandates on infrastructure projects, prioritizing government-owned networks over private investment, mandating the use of unionized labor in states, and seeking to regulate broadband rates, your administration has caused unnecessary delays leaving millions of Americans unconnected.

The administration’s lack of focus on truly connecting the unconnected has failed the American people and represents a gross misuse of limited taxpayer dollars. The American public deserves better.

‘All-In’ podcast host Jason Calacanis recently said, “Our government is corrupt and stealing our money. United airlines just put Starlink on 1,000+ planes, but the FCC claims we need to spend 5-10k per rural home for wired connections?!? These homes are putting starlink in on their nickel while they wait for a cable modem in 10 years — wtf??? Pure corruption or insane stupidity — you decide!”

Carr recently chimed in and said Elon Musk’s Starlink offered the FCC a secured commitment of $1,300 per household for 640,000 rural locations. He said in 2023, the federal government rejected Starlink and decided to spend $100,000 per location. 

Musk said Wednesday that the FCC rejected Starlink because of “lawfare.” 

Here’s what X users are saying about an inefficient and what appears to be a ‘corruption’ within the Biden-Harris admin:

Good question.

* * *

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 18:00

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A second wave of device explosions killed 20 people and wounded more than 450 others on Wednesday in Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, officials said, stoking fears of an all-out war with Israel. A source close to Hezbollah said walkie-talkies used by its members blew up in its Beirut stronghold, with state media reporting similar blasts […]

The post Fears of all-out war as new Lebanon device blasts kill 20, wound 450 appeared first on Insider Paper.

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