Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024
Author: NHC
Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190240 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Gilma continues to battle easterly shear this evening. Deep convection has been regularly pulsing near the center and then pulled off toward the western side of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, representing a blend of the various estimates. Strong-to-moderate deep vertical wind shear is forecast to persist for the next day or two. Global models vary when the shear will relax, but sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday Gilma should be in a more conducive environment and gradually strengthen. By the end of the forecast period, the storm is expected to move into a drier airmass with increasing upper-level winds, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, slightly higher than the various consensus aids. Gilma is moving westward along the south side of a mid-level ridge at 280/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, Gilma is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward when a trough off of the west coast of the United States erodes the ridge. There is quite a bit of model spread during this period, with the GFS showing a slower forward speed and a more poleward turn compared to some of the regional models which stay farther to the south and move faster. The official track forecast lies near the simple consensus aids and is slightly south of the previous track through 60 h and a little to the north afterwards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gilma Public Advisory
…GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY…
As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18
the center of Gilma was located near 14.8, -113.5
with movement W at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Advisory
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024
Tropical Storm Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
…ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE… …DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK…
As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18
the center of Ernesto was located near 38.5, -61.4
with movement NNE at 20 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 975 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024