000
FONT15 KNHC 180843
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)  23(59)   X(59)   X(59)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   X(20)   X(20)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   8( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

BERMUDA        34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 180842
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  63.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  63.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N  63.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.4N  62.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N  60.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.9N  56.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N  50.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N  41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N  63.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 180548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.  A watch may be required for a portion of this area 
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West.  Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some 
increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed 
by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and 
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue 
moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern 
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight, 
and Ernesto could regain hurricane status.  The cyclone will likely 
become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night 
or Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda
for the next few hours.

STORM SURGE:  Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches
or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts 
of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result 
in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today.  Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days.  Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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757 
WTNT45 KNHC 180238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show 
limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest 
convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle. 
This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the 
system from the northwest into the central core. The various 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have 
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this 
the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

The initial motion is 030/7 kt.  This slow motion should continue 
for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the 
north of Ernesto.  After that, southwesterly flow on the east side 
of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States 
should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast, 
northeast, and eventually east-northeast.  This motion should bring 
the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday 
night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic 
thereafter.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the 
new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries 
to mix out the dry air tongue.  After that, upper-level divergence 
is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively 
warm water.  This could allow some modest re-intensification as 
show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the 
intensity forecast.  After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it 
moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition.  
Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low 
is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern 
Atlantic between 72-96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not quite over.  Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue for a few more hours.  The heavy 
rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash 
flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week.  Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 33.9N  63.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 35.3N  62.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 37.9N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 41.3N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 44.7N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 47.7N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0000Z 50.4N  36.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.  A watch may be required for a portion of this area on
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  An 
acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on 
Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast 
occurring on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near 
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected tonight. 
Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and 
Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely 
become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night 
or Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next few hours.

STORM SURGE:  Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches 
or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda, 
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This 
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash 
flooding to the island.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today.  Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days.  Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000
WTNT25 KNHC 180237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  63.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  63.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N  62.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N  61.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N  58.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.7N  53.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N  46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.4N  36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N  63.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

980
WTNT35 KNHC 172336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN

Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Sat Aug 17 2024

• ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM
  CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND
• DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK

SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION

LOCATION 33.5 NORTH 63.7 WEST
ABOUT 100 MILES, 160 KILOMETERS NORTHEAST, OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1065 MILES, 1715 KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST, OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 MILES PER HOUR, 120 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST, OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MILES PER HOUR, 9 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MILLIBAR, 28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

• Bermuda

1. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
2. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
3. A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning.
4. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• At 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West.
• Ernesto is moving toward the north northeast near 6 Miles Per Hour, (9 Kilometers Per Hour), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight.
• An acceleration toward the north northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday.
• On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 75 Miles Per Hour, (120 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
• No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday.
• The cyclone will likely become post tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 Kilometers).
• The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 Millibar, (28.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND:

• Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next several hours.

STORM SURGE:

• Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
• Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:

• Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeter) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 millimeter).
• This rainfall will likely result in considerable life threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low lying areas.

SURF:

• Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today.
• Life threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days.
  Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.

NEXT ADVISORY

• Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's 
convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection 
located in a small band just north of the center.  Subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the 
day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated 
that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt.

Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from 
Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030 
degrees) at 5 kt.  This slow motion is likely to continue for the 
next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an 
approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the 
north-northeast on Sunday.  The cyclone is forecast to turn 
northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the 
center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or 
Monday night.  After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to 
accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north 
Atlantic.  The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72 
hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous 
NHC forecast.

Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over 
warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear 
environment for the next 24 hours or so.  The storm's current broad 
structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this 
otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical 
hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that 
Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so.  
This is reflected in the official intensity forecast.  Weakening 
should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving 
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is 
likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near 
southeastern Newfoundland.  The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that 
dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up 
into a trough over the north Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over.  Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue through tonight.  The heavy rains 
will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week.  Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 33.3N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 34.3N  63.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 36.5N  62.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 39.5N  60.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 43.0N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 46.4N  50.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1800Z 48.9N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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165 
FONT15 KNHC 172032
PWSAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  50(50)   X(50)   X(50)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  41(45)   X(45)   X(45)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter

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