Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
Author: NHC
Tropical Depression Ileana Forecast Discussion
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024
064 WTPZ44 KNHC 150844 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ileana Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 All of Ileana's deep convection dissipated yesterday afternoon, and all that is left now is a swirl of low clouds off the coast of northern Sinaloa. An ASCAT-C pass from 0410 UTC showed maximum winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa, and a weather station in Topolobampo is no longer reporting winds to tropical storm force. As a result, Ileana is now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, and all coastal warnings in Mexico have been discontinued. Ileana has been meandering, but the longer-term motion is west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. Model guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn northwestward later today but maintain a generally slow motion while moving over the Gulf of California. Due to strong southwesterly shear and a very dry atmosphere, deep convection is not expected to redevelop, and it's likely that Gordon will be declared a remnant low later this morning. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
Tropical Depression Ileana Public Advisory
…ILEANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION… …FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING…
As of 2:00 AM MST Sun Sep 15
the center of Ileana was located near 25.5, -109.3
with movement WNW at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Ileana Forecast Advisory
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
376 WTPZ24 KNHC 150843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM GORDON
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024
Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
…GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM…
As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 15
the center of Gordon was located near 19.6, -44.8
with movement WSW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
…ILEANA WEAKENING WHILE MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN SINALOA…
As of 11:00 PM MST Sat Sep 14
the center of Ileana was located near 25.4, -109.2
with movement WNW at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.