Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT45 KNHC 160234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt. This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant. Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence, a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving toward Bermuda, and it is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda from Friday afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda overnight and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 160233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Thu Aug 15 2024
- ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA
- PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SUMMARY OF 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 03:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 27.1 NORTH 68.1 WEST
ABOUT 410 MILES, 660 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 MILES PER HOUR, 155 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST, OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MILES PER HOUR, 22 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MILLIBAR, 28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (03:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 68.1 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north northeast near 14 Miles Per Hour, (22 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a slower north northeastward motion on Saturday.
- A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 Miles Per Hour, (155 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday.
- Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 2:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
Next complete advisory at 5:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT25 KNHC 160233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Current subscribers:
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 152330
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Thu Aug 15 2024
- ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 26.6 NORTH 68.4 WEST
ABOUT 450 MILES, 730 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 MILES PER HOUR, 150 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH, OR 010 DEGREES AT 13 MILES PER HOUR, 20 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MILLIBAR, 28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds,
- conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 68.4 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 Miles Per Hour, (20 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a slower northeastward or north northeastward motion late Friday and Saturday.
- A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 Miles Per Hour, (150 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday.
- Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 Kilometers). - The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 970 Millibar (28.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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Current subscribers:
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
631 WTNT35 KNHC 152046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 68.9W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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Current subscribers:
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 151745
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Thu Aug 15 2024
- HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SUMMARY OF 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 25.4 NORTH 69.3 WEST
ABOUT 550 MILES, 885 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MILES PER HOUR, 140 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH, OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MILES PER HOUR, 22 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MILLIBAR, 28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 69.3 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north near 14 Miles Per Hour, (22 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 85 Miles Per Hour, (140 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
- Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday.
- Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 974 Millibar (28.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
- These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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Current subscribers:
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16
000
WTNT35 KNHC 151455
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
11:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Thu Aug 15 2024
- HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SUMMARY OF 11:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 15:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 25.0 NORTH 69.2 WEST
ABOUT 570 MILES, 915 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MILES PER HOUR, 140 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH, OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MILES PER HOUR, 22 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MILLIBAR, 28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 11:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (15:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane ‘Ernesto’ was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 69.2 West.
- ‘Ernesto’ is moving toward the north near 14 Miles Per Hour, (22 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday.
- On the forecast track, the center of ‘Ernesto’ is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 85 Miles Per Hour, (140 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and ‘Ernesto’ could be near major hurricane strength by Friday.
- ‘Ernesto’ is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
- A Saildrone just north of the center measured sustained winds of 46 Miles Per Hour, (74 Kilometers Per Hour) with a gust of 58 Miles Per Hour, (93 Kilometers Per Hour).
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for ‘Ernesto’ can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- ‘Ernesto’ is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
SURF:
- Swells generated by ‘Ernesto’ are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
- These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next intermediate advisory at 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
- Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Bucci & Onderlinde
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT25 KNHC 151455 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 69.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
206
WTNT35 KNHC 151149
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Thu Aug 15 2024
- HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SUMMARY OF 8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 24.5 NORTH 69.3 WEST
ABOUT 605 MILES, 975 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MILES PER HOUR, 140 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH, OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MILES PER HOUR, 20 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MILLIBAR, 28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. - Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 Miles Per Hour, (20 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward motion on Friday and Saturday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 Miles Per Hour, (140 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
- Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches) based on data from a dropsonde.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
- These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 A.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Originally Posted at: NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT45 KNHC 150858 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has strengthened overnight. Satellite images show that a more symmetric area of deep convection has formed near the center, with a rather large curved band wrapping in all quadrants of the hurricane. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt, matching the TAFB and SAB estimates, though recent imagery suggests that could be a little conservative. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours. Ernesto has turned northward and is moving at about 11 kt. The models remain in good agreement that the hurricane should turn to the northeast during the next day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic towards a mid-latitude trough. However, the trough departs by the weekend, causing Ernesto to move slower to the north-northeast or north while the hurricane approaches Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one as the track guidance remains in good overall agreement. While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, and all of the guidance show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda. There remains some indications that positive interactions with the second upper trough and warmer than normal waters should cause the system to keep much of its strength north of Bermuda, and the new forecast reflects this. All of the guidance now show Ernesto as post-tropical by 120 h, and so does the NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 23.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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