000
WTNT35 KNHC 150855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for 
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This general motion 
is expected today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward 
motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of 
Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and 
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.  Ernesto is 
forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).  
NOAA buoy 41046, located about 20 miles north of Ernesto, recently 
reported a minimum central pressure of 987.4 mb (29.16 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce 
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.  
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening 
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 150854
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  69.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  69.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N  69.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N  68.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N  65.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  55SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N  65.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N  62.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N  52.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  90SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N  69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 150548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple 
of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41046, located about 40 miles north of 
Ernesto, recently reported a wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) and a 
minimum central pressure of 997.9 mb (29.47 inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150241
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn 
toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a slower 
northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near 
Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

512 
WTNT25 KNHC 150240
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  68.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  68.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  68.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N  69.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N  68.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N  67.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N  66.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N  65.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N  65.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 142350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Wed Aug 14 2024

• AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING
• HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA

SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION

LOCATION 22.4 NORTH 68.7 WEST
ABOUT 180 MILES, 290 KILOMETERS East Northeast OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MILES, 1160 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 MILES PER HOUR, 130 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST, OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MILES PER HOUR, 26 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MILLIBAR, 28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for

• Bermuda

1. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
2. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
3. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• At 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 68.7 West.
• Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 Miles Per Hour, (26 Kilometers Per Hour).
• A turn toward the north northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.
• A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday.
• On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.
• Data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 Miles Per Hour, (130 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
• Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
• The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

WIND:

• Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL:

• Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
• This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
• Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
• Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
• For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:

• Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
• These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
• Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
• These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 142042
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is 
gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially 
forming in the Central Dense Overcast.  The Air Force Reserve 
mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had 
fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum 
winds were any higher than 65 kt.  The initial intensity is 
therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest 
satellite intensity estimates.

Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the 
right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt.  A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as 
the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but 
the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind 
later in the week.  The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow 
down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.  
Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause 
Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of 
Atlantic Canada.  The track models are in very good agreement on 
this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48 
hours.  The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after 
48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at 
this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center 
will move to Bermuda this weekend.

An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and 
low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually 
during the next few days.  Most of the intensity models indicate 
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours.  At 
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major 
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to 
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models.  A weakening trend should 
begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable 
atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual.  As a result, 
the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the 
5-day forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with 
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.  Rainfall 
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as 
Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the 
week and this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the 
Virgin Islands this evening.  Locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands 
and into portions of Puerto Rico.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend.  Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.  Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 21.7N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 25.7N  69.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 29.5N  66.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 31.3N  65.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 32.9N  65.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 37.0N  64.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 43.4N  58.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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085 
WTNT35 KNHC 142041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West.  Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.  
A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is 
expected Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, 
and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations 
of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening 
flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.  Total rainfall amounts from 
Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum 
amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the 
U.S and British Virgin Islands.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Hurricane Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells
will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.  Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

086 
WTNT25 KNHC 142041
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  68.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N  69.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N  66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N  65.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N  58.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Current subscribers:

000

WTNT35 KNHC 141749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Wed Aug 14 2024

• FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS

SUMMARY OF 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION

LOCATION 21.1 NORTH 68.0 WEST
ABOUT 225 MILES, 365 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST, OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 805 MILES, 1295 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 MILES PER HOUR, 120 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST, OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MILES PER HOUR, 26 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MILLIBAR, 29.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

• The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued.
• The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

1. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
2. A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• At 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West.
• Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 Miles Per Hour, (26 Kilometers Per Hour).
• A turn toward the north northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday.
• On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 75 Miles Per Hour, (120 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 Kilometers).
• The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL:

• Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
• Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
• Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday.
• For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:

• Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through rest of today.

SURF:

• Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
• These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
• Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
• These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
• Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter

Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.

Current subscribers: