Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 150238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB. Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5 in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently, subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above. Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or 245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone will survive during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 150236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON WEAKENS AND TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 43.8W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 43.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower west-southwestward or westward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to become a depression later tonight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory
904 WTNT22 KNHC 150236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 109.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.4N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.
Current subscribers:
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Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Data from the Mexican radar at Guasave indicates that the center of Ileana has moved onto the coast of Mexico in the state of Sinaloa. The system is still producing bursts of convection to the north and northeast of the center, and surface observations show the winds to the northwest of the center are in the 25-30 kt range. Based on this, the intensity is held at 35 kt, with these winds likely occuring along the coast near and east of the center. The initial motion is now 360/5 kt. A turn toward the northwest and a slow forward speed are expected during the next 6-12 h, with a continued northwestward motion after that. This motion should bring the center across the coastal region of the state of Sinaloa for the next 12 h or so, followed by a motion over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, with this motion continuing until the system dissipates. The new track forecast is again nudged to the north and east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength in a few hours due to a combination of shear and land interaction. However, until that happens, the cyclone should continue to bring bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora through this afternoon. The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low between 12-24 h, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.5N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 26.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 27.2N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 142032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved. The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective intensity estimates. The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday, as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future advisories. Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower forward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 20.3N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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