The Blank Slate and Totalitarian Creep
by Robert Weissberg, American Thinker:
The most career-destroying, toxic heresy in today’s hypersensitive world is attributing highly valued traits such as intelligence to a person’s genes and then saying that these and other biologically hard-wired traits were unevenly distributed across population groups.
To say, for example, that the Chinese disproportionately succeed academically due to their genes, not unearned privilege, luck, or any other environmental factor, violates this taboo.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
The opposite is the blank slate theory of human nature. Here everything is environmentally determined and according to Steven Pinker, the blank slate view of human nature dominates today’s intellectual life.
Those rejecting this blank slate ideology will be punished regardless of evidence or expertise. James Watson, the Nobel Prize winning co-discover of DNA was fired from his position and widely excoriated for speculating sub-Saharan African economic dysfunction might reflect their lower and genetically determined IQs.
Meanwhile, countless scientists anxious to remain employed will twist themselves into knots to avoid even hinting of biological differences across population groups to explain unequal outcomes in educational attainment, crime, health and elsewhere.
In principle, this taboo is entirely amenable to scientific inquiry. We are not in the 15th century where contrarian views on impossible-to-prove religious dogma such as free will vs. determinism, might get you burned at the stake. In fact, thousands of scientists do study the role genes play and publish their findings, though nearly all of this research focuses on plants and animals, not humans.
Why the fear of documenting the impact of genetics on human behavior?
Ironically, biological explanations have historically dominated. Victorians frequently explained the criminality of the poor by their defective genes while innumeracy among women resulted from their smaller brains.
Plausibly, banishing genetic explanations reduces unfair discrimination, so, for example, if women were thought be genetically inclined to being innumerate, they would be excluded from jobs requiring math.
Read More @ AmericanThinker.com
Originally Posted at https://www.sgtreport.com
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NewsWare’s Trade Talk: Monday, September 16 | NewsWare‘s Trade Talk
S&P Futures are slightly lower this morning. Big week ahead for Central Bank meetings from the FOMC, BOE & the BOJ. Markets are expecting a dovish narrative from the Fed on Wednesday. CRM’s Dreamforce conference starts tomorrow. MSFT is expected to speak today at 11:00 on a Copilot announcement. A Federal appeal court will consider whether the U.S. government has the rights to force TikTok to sever ties with China. In Europe, markets are displaying muted losses, healthcare and luxury stocks are positive. and oil prices higher but off the morning highs. China demand remains underwhelming.
Home for this information is at NewsWare‘s Trade Talk homepage at this link
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate strong winds are nearing the coast and will spread onshore during the next few hours. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through late this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Understanding the Real Costs of Slavery: It’s Not Cheap labor
Slavery has existed throughout history in all places and cultures. It was not introduced by the political state yet, as with many things, slavery could not have had the scope or extent that it did in human history absent the coercive apparatus of the political state. Through cronyism, slaveholders consistently had to seek assistance from the legal system in order to socialize and enforce slavery. The enforcement costs for keeping slaves slaves would have been too high for the minority slaveholding elite to maintain slavery, beyond their own strength or what they could afford to hire.
Lord Mansfield, a British judge, argued the following in a case called Somerset v Stewart (1772), which involved his refusal to forcibly send an enslaved person on English soil over to Jamaica to be sold,
The state of slavery is of such a nature, that it is incapable of being introduced on any reasons, moral or political; but only positive law, which preserves its force long after the reasons, occasion, and time itself from whence it was created, is erased from memory: it’s so odious, that nothing can be suffered to support it, but positive law. (emphasis added)
Positive law, according to Mansfield, was the only thing that could be said to maintain slavery. Slavery, of course, would still exist to an extent without positive law enforcing it, but it is much-weakened without the force of positive law from the state (at taxpayer expense). Besides examining the policies that socialized, enforced, and maintained slavery, we can also—with the help of Mises—come to understand the praxeology involved in slavery and why slaveholders are prone to seek the help of the state.
Slavery and Praxeology
As with economics, it can be helpful to resort to the “Crusoe” economy or society—the economy of one—then adding other people and dynamics from there. Alone on an island, one man has to act and make choices with scarce resources in order to survive and possibly better his condition. If he discovers an animal, like an ox, he may decide to sacrifice time, energy, and resources to train the ox to be more productive than on his own. Of course, no slavery is possible at this point.
If there were only two people on this island, man A may attempt to enslave man B, with a similar goal as with controlling the ox in the first example. To do so similarly requires sacrifice of time, energy, and resources. Even if A succeeds in physically overpowering or threatening B into providing labor for him, it comes with initial expense and continuing enforcement costs. Already we can observe that slavery is costly for the slaveholder to maintain. This necessarily limits the extent of slavery. Mises writes,
People have tried to look upon fellow men as they look upon animals and to deal with them accordingly. They have used whips to compel galley slaves and barge haulers to work like capstan-horses. However, experience has shown that these methods of unbridled brutalization render very unsatisfactory results. Even the crudest and dullest people achieve more when working of their own accord than under the fear of the whip.
Man A—trying to at least derive animal-level production through enslaving B—incurs costs, whether he punishes/threatens, rewards, or both. Use of threat of force does not likely yield the highest quantity or quality of production. Man B—whether avoiding punishment or trying to earn reward—has no incentive to labor since he (mostly) does not benefit from his own labor. B can inhibit production for A—intentionally or unintentionally—through weakness, incompetence, fighting, running away, etc. All these costs A must incur for B’s forced production and—barring a simple love of cruelty—the benefit of B’s production must be greater than the costs of enslaving B.
Among primitive man, Mises explains the next step in the process of the praxeology of ancient slavery,
Primitive man makes no distinction between his property in women, children, and slaves on the one hand and his property in cattle and inanimate things on the other. But as soon as he begins to expect from his slaves services other than such as can also be rendered by draft and pack animals, he is forced to loosen their chains. He must try to substitute the incentive of self-interest for the incentive of mere fear; he must try to bind the slave to himself by human feelings. If the slave is no longer prevented from fleeing exclusively by being chained and watched and no longer forced to work exclusively under the threat of being whipped, the relation between master and slave is transformed into a social nexus.
Praxeologically, we see that there are semi-prohibitive costs to slavery that limit it—acquisition costs, subsistence costs, maintenance costs, management costs, and enforcement costs. To coerce someone into slavery comes with costs that might not be worth it relative to the results of the possible additional production from slavery. This puts negative pressure on slavery as an institution and encourages voluntary production and trade. Concerning this, Mises explains,
The abolition of slavery and serfdom is to be attributed neither to the teachings of theologians and moralists nor to weakness or generosity on the part of the masters…. Servile labor disappeared because it could not stand the competition of free labor; its unprofitability sealed its doom in the market economy.
To put this into historical perspective, especially given the commonplace belief that slavery was “cheap labor,” it has been estimated that, in northern India, an Indian agricultural day laborer around 1850 could be hired for about $15.80 per year (with 300 working days). This was “about one-quarter to one half of the annual cost of food, housing, medical care, and clothing provided to American slaves.” Estimates concerning the annual maintenance of slaves around 1850 range from $30 to $61. The rental rate of slaves annually was estimated (ca. 1850) to be $168 to hire, plus $30 maintenance, for a yearly cost of $198 in the Lower South—about 10 times the cost of the cheapest free labor in India!
Alan L. Olmstead and Paul W. Rhode, in their “Cotton, Slavery, and the New History of Capitalism,” argue, after presenting the above estimates, “Recognizing the high cost of slave labor affects our understanding of the sources of America’s comparative advantage in cotton production: it most certainly was not cheap labor.”
It is a fallacy to assume that because slave labor was unpaid that it was, therefore, cheap or inexpensive. America was land-abundant and labor-scarce, therefore, the normal expectation would be for the price of labor to rise, even in the case of slavery. When purchasing slave labor—by outright purchase or rental—involved upfront costs and ongoing costs. The goal of slave labor, by simple cost-benefit analysis, is to reap a gain in benefits that is higher than the costs. Mises explains the cost-benefit consideration regarding unpaid labor,
The price paid for the purchase of a slave is determined by the net yield expected from his employment (both as a worker and as a progenitor of other slaves) just as the price paid for a cow is determined by the net yield expected from its utilization. The owner of a slave does not pocket a specific revenue. For him there is no “exploitation” boon derived from the fact that the slave’s work is not remunerated and that the potential market price of the services he renders is possibly greater than the cost of feeding, sheltering, and guarding him.
Mises elaborates that the price at which a slaveholder buys a slave takes into account the overall expected production yield from the use of the slave versus the yield without a slave. The price for purchase of slave labor is paid upfront, but then there are ongoing costs—feeding, sheltering, guarding, etc. All these costs disincentivize slavery. Therefore, just because a slave is unpaid does not mean that he is employed for “free” or that slavery is cheap labor.
Furthermore, if a slave escapes, then the slaveholder might incur further expenses in catching him or having him caught. To decide that it would be worth it to devote resources to catch a slave, it implies that the diverted effort and resources must be worth the additional production by the slave if caught. For any slave-hunting business to exist, the slaveholder must be willing to pay more than the initial and ongoing costs on slave labor and the slave’s production, if caught, must exceed the expenses. Otherwise, slavery would hardly be worth it on a free market. Slavery could not compete with free labor on the free market. It was only the state apparatus that could socialize, subsidize, and expand slavery for the profit of some at the expense of the non-slaveholding population. Argues Mises,
Now, at no time and at no place was it possible for enterprises employing servile labor to compete on the market with enterprises employing free labor. Servile labor could always be utilized only where it did not have to meet the competition of free labor.
Slavery, praxeologically and historically, was neither cheap to implement or maintain. In fact, so costly was the system that it required socialization and subsidization via the state apparatus (at taxpayer expense). Free markets, even despite man’s penchant for cruelty, domination, and oppression, puts pressures on slavery and incentivizes voluntary cooperation as cheaper and more productive.
Originally Posted at https://mises.org/
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Four injured in school hammer attack in Russia
A teenage student wounded four people with a hammer on Monday at a school in the southern Russian city of Chelyabinsk, near the border with Kazakhstan, local authorities said.
The 13-year-old boy attacked teachers and fellow students before he was stopped, province governor Aleksey Teksler wrote on X.
Two 13-year-old girls, one boy and a teacher were injured and admitted to hospital, the local health ministry said.
The suspect was also carrying a knife and a gun, according to a police source cited by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
His motives were not immediately clear.
“How could a student get into the school with a hammer and why didn’t security guards respond?” Teksler asked on X.
He said he had ordered security protocols to be reviewed at every school in the region.
A probe has been launched into “planned murder” and “neglect”, said the Investigative Committee of Russia, which is responsible for the country’s biggest investigations.
The attack took place at school number 68 in Chelyabinsk, Teksler said.
Armed school attacks in Russia, once a rarity, have risen in recent years.
President Vladimir Putin has called them an import from the United States and blamed globalisation.
He has tightened gun ownership law.
A 14-year-old girl opened fire at a school in the southwestern city of Bryansk in December 2023, killing a classmate before taking her own life.
A separate shooting in Ijevsk in central Russia in September 2022 left 18 dead.
Nine people were killed by a 21-year-old attacker at a school in Kazan in the Russian republic of Tatarstan in 2021.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion
830 WTNT43 KNHC 160845 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the center has not become well defined. The associated deep convection has a generally linear orientation and has been displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt. The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the ill-defined nature of the center. The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this evening. 2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
000 WTNT33 KNHC 160845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT23 KNHC 160844 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 160844 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in the previous NHC advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt. Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today. Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change, Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that direction. Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few days, although some slight moistening of the environment is possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3 to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5 days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon will survive in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 160843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 47.5W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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