Politics

Authored by Thomas Neuberger via Substack,

“The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy”

– Constitution of the United States, Article 2, Section 2

I found the following news via a piece at Ian Welsh’s site, and it struck me as important. While I don’t want to overplay what it implies, I don’t want to underplay it either.

An American Coup?

In a 30-minute interview with Judge Napolitano on September 18, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell and critic of America’s wars, described a recent event in which Pentagon chief Gen. Lloyd Austin told President Biden that, in Wilkerson’s words, “the Pentagon has taken over, essentially, diplomacy as well as any action, militarily speaking, with regard to both theaters of war,” meaning Ukraine and Israel.

Wilkerson added, “And so they’re now in charge.” Austin, according to this telling, listened “to the people in the bowels of the Pentagon who know the truth” and forced the President to back down.

Biden was furious, we’re told, but “took that advice.” Except, as Wilkerson tells it, it wasn’t advice, but instruction. “No dice,” as Wilkerson characterized the message, sounds pretty final.

This is good news and bad news. The good, U.S. policy is now:

• To Netanyahu, if you invade Lebanon or attack Iran, you’re on your own.

• To Zelenskyy, no to long range missiles reaching deep into Russia.

So we and the world are safer, at least for a while.

The bad: Is this a coup? Has the military stood up to the President, forced him to change policy?

If the answers are yes, we’re on our way once more to revising the Constitution-as-practiced. Both political parties have already confirmed that the Fourth Amendment can be ignored. That’s now the “new normal.” So what’s this encroachment of the Pentagon into foreign policy, if not another “new normal”? Has MacArthur finally won?

Whatever the truth, you won’t see this reported in what people call the “news,” but I doubt Wilkerson’s sources are wrong. At any rate, we’ll know soon enough by the way Zelenskyy and Netanyahu act.

Welcome to the future of U.S. foreign policy.

The Wilkerson Exchange in Full

The video at the top contains the full Wilkerson interview, cued to start at the conversation about Austin and Biden. I’ve also printed that exchange below, lightly edited. Emphasis is that of the speaker.

Wilkerson: I think what we’re seeing here is another attempt, because a 100-plane strike didn’t do it, by Netanyahu to provoke Hezbollah to some sort of action that he can then declare is warlike to the extent that he can do what he wants to do with them — even though I’m told with great confidence in the sources that the latest two visits by the Central Command Unified Commander were to tell him [Netanyahu] that we would not be with him in the event of his going to war with Hezbollah that he provoked. Nor will we be with him going to war with Iran that he provoked. And we made it quite clear that we would know if he provoked it.

Napolitano: You’re speaking of General Kurilla [CENTCOM commander since April 2022].

Wilkerson: Yes. Yes.

Napolitano: So Scott Ritter agrees with you, Doug Macgregor says he can’t imagine Austin and Blinkin letting General Kuralla do that. It’s very very interesting. … Is this speculation on your part or is it based on sources?

Wilkerson: It’s based on some pretty reliable sources. And here’s the bigger picture and I hope the others told you this too. Biden’s fury — and you could see it — he was seething when he met with the British Prime Minister.

Napolitano: Yes, yes, we have that clip. He was out of control with anger.

Wilkerson: And what he [had] just been told, apparently, was by the Pentagon, “No dice, Mr President. No dice on Ukraine and no dice on Gaza. We’re in charge now.”

Napolitano: No dice. You’re talking about no dice on the long range missiles reaching deep into Russia, even though Tony Blinkin had intimated all week in Kyiv with his British counterpart that this was happening. And Sir Keir Stormer, the British Prime Minister, had every reason to believe as he’s flying across the Atlantic that Joe Biden’s answer would be yes.

Wilkerson: He was embarrassed. He was embarrassed by the fact — he was pulling out his maps with target data and Biden told him, “Don’t even pull them out. We’re not going to talk about that.”

I’ve been told, again by fairly reliable sources, that Blinkin and Sullivan — Blinkin primarily, but Sullivan too — have been sidetracked, and what’s happened is the Pentagon has taken over, essentially, diplomacy as well as any action, militarily speaking, with regard to both theaters of war.

And so they’re now in charge.

I have to change my evaluation of Secretary Austin if that’s the case, because it means he listened finally to the people in the bowels of the Pentagon who know the truth, and he’s reacting to that, and he’s told the President Biden that, and to Biden’s credit, even though he was furious, he finally took that advice.

Napolitano: Colonel, you once ran the State Department [as Secretary Colin Powell’s chief of staff under George Bush]. How does the Defense Department engage in diplomacy?

Wilkerson: They engage in diplomacy every day. Every day. There are four-stars in the various syncdoms, the regions that they control, the AORs [Areas of Responsibility] [who] are the true U.S. diplomats. And some of them are very good at it. I saw some of them. I worked with some of them who are very good at it, better than any Secretary of State.

But it shouldn’t be that way. That’s a parenthetical remark. We shouldn’t have the military leading diplomacy. But we often do.

And the Japanese prime minister once told me why to my face. He said, “Larry, when your East Asia and Pacific Assistant Secretary comes out here, he’s not got anything but his briefcase. When the man from Honolulu comes out here, from Camp Smith in Hawaii, he’s towing air wings, submarines, battle groups, Marine amphibious groups, Army divisions. I listened to him. This is the Prime Minister of Japan.

Napolitano: Who told General Kurilla to tell Prime Minister Netanyahu, “If you invade Lebanon, you’re on your own?”

Wilkerson: It was, I think, Austin. But that’s the chain of command. Austin conveyed that message to him [Kurilla]. But I think it was Austin that convinced Biden to give him that command so he could transmit it to Kurilla.

The latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center indicates a 70% probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. Forecast models predict that a tropical storm could develop early next week, potentially making landfall along the Gulf Coast—the location of America’s top offshore oil/gas rigs and refineries on the mainland—by late next week. 

“Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week,” NHC wrote in an update on Sunday morning. 

Since Thursday, we have been monitoring potential tropical development via various weather models because this potential storm threatens US oil/gas infrastructure. 

• “Something Brewing In Gulf Of Mexico” As Confidence Grows In Cyclone Formation Next Week

The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore wrote on X, “One of the things to consider with this week’s pending tropical threat is where the “slingshot” sets up.  The slingshot is the upper low (blue) that could ventilate the system first and aid in intensification, then slingshot it into the coast.  The stronger it is at landfall the deeper inland  the more intense parts of it get.  Guidance has much to sort out with all the players coming together.  We should have an invest soon as NHC has issued a 10% area in 48hrs and marked a starting point.”

One of the things to consider with this week’s pending tropical threat is where the “slingshot” sets up. The slingshot is the upper low (blue) that could ventilate the system first and aid in intensification, then slingshot it into the coast. The stronger it is at landfall the… pic.twitter.com/QCdYVtRAuX

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 22, 2024

Washington Post’s Matthew Cappucci wrote on X that a hurricane will likely form in the Gulf of Mexico…  

A hurricane is likely in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned in in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana!

I’ll have an update in the @MyRadarWX app in the morning. Be sure to follow me on TikTok as well (trying to get better at verticals for the youth). pic.twitter.com/8zlIhVzTK8

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) September 22, 2024

“Mike’s Weather PageOvernight GFS/EURO ensembles on http://weathernerds.org. Huge consistency. EURO catching up to the GFS. Timing here Friday. Many already make landfall by then. Getting real Florida IMO,” Mike’s Weather Page wrote on X. 

Overnight GFS/EURO ensembles on https://t.co/j6cXc9FWby. Huge consistency. EURO catching up to the GFS. Timing here Friday. Many already make landfall by then. Getting real Florida IMO. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/j652aq388q

— Mike’s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 22, 2024

Landfall in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and or Louisiana 

While uncertainty remains, there is a focusing of tropical tracks in the eastern Gulf late in the week.

Ensemble “orb” guidance is leaning toward a faster emergence into the Gulf, with states like Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi & Louisiana on watch…

Old run ➡️ new run pic.twitter.com/vRiQnbGXKn

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 22, 2024

About 15% of the nation’s total crude production capacity via offshore rigs is in the cone uncertainty. Also, about 45% of the US refining capacity resides at major refineries in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Via Bloomberg data…

There’s a high probability the forecast could can change in the next five days.