Economics

Will India Join The Asian “Squad”?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner invited India to join the Asian “Squad” while speaking at the latest annual Raisina Dialogue security forum in Delhi. This neologism was reportedly coined by Pentagon officials last spring to refer to the multilateral cooperation between the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. Brawner suggested that India can participate through the sharing of intelligence on their “common enemy” China. Here are five background briefings:

* 16 June 2023: “The US’ Nascent Trilateral Alliance With Japan & The Philippines Will Integrate Into AUKUS+”

* 27 January 2024: “Why’s Russia Letting India Export Jointly Produced Supersonic Missiles To The Philippines?”

* 29 March 2024: “India’s Support Of The Philippines In Its Maritime Dispute With China Isn’t Related To The US”

* 6 May 2024: “The US’ Newly Formed Asian ‘Squad’ Has Strategic Implications For India”

* 18 February 2025: “The Latest Modi-Trump Summit Showcased India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy”

To summarize, the Philippines is becoming the centerpiece of the US’ planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China, which will de facto expand the AUKUS alliance throughout the region. India is a founding member of the Quad alongside the US, Australia, and Japan, but it fiercely safeguards its hard-earned strategic autonomy and won’t subordinate itself to the US like the other two and the Philippines will in spite of its problems with China, which is why it wasn’t included in the “Squad”.

India and China also entered into a rapprochement after their leaders met on the sidelines of October’s BRICS Summit in Kazan, with the US being inadvertently responsible for this process as explained here at the time, yet tensions still remain. Trump’s return to the presidency changed India’s strategic calculations, however, since he’s tough on China and is prioritizing the “Pivot (back) to Asia”. The US’ grand strategic reorientation to that part of Eurasia will give India a larger role in American planning.

Indian policymakers might therefore see value in sharing intelligence on China with their Philippine partner, who’s one of the US’ mutual defense allies, through the “Squad” format. This could even lay the basis for a new “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance. Further ingratiating India with the Pentagon’s planning vis-à-vis China, so long as India retains its hard-earned strategic autonomy this entire time, might also result in less trade and tariff pressure from Trump or so Indian policymakers might think.

On the flipside, India could risk provoking China and thus further complicating their already difficult rapprochement if Beijing interprets this as signaling Delhi’s impending subordination to Washington, in which case their border tensions could once again worsen and last fall’s progress would be reversed. The bilateral sharing of intelligence with the Philippine would also likely be viewed as provocative by China but it would still be qualitatively different than India’s de facto or formal inclusion in the “Squad”.

Accordingly, one possibility is that India comprehensively ramps up its security cooperation with the Philippines without multilateralizing this through the “Squad”, all while communicating to the US how sensitive this issue…

The Global Economy As An After School Special

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The Global Economy As An After School Special

This follows directly from Friday’s Warning, for lack of a better word, which leaned heavily on last weekend’s Be Afraid of Certainty, Not Uncertainty. Since anything can happen between the time this is distributed and “Liberation” Day, it seemed like a good time to take a view from 20,000 feet. Which leads me to discussing After School Specials.

For those who don’t know, the After School Special was a type of TV show. Longer (1 hour) with a bigger budget than a typical show aimed at children. But there was always a message or a moral to the show.

The typical show ran something along the lines of:

A bad person, or group (bully, extortion, protection, etc.) does something to a good person, or group (generally weaker, awkward, or “loners”).
Over time the “good” person or group trains, gets organized, or does something to fight back against the bad group or person.
After an attempt or two, the good people win.
More often than not, the “bad” people realize that they have been bad, and come to an agreement with the “good” people or even team up and let bygones be bygones. As “phony” as the rest of the plot, this ending always seemed the phoniest of all.
Right now, the trade war looks a lot like this, with a few plot “twists.”

The U.S. administration believes it has been taken advantage of for years hence it is the good team in this global economic “movie.” The administration is just starting to fight back as the underdog to get even with the bullies/extortionists/protection racketeers.
The rest of the world sees the U.S. as being the bully, the one upsetting the order, and flaunting traditional rules of engagement. Hence much of the rest of the world views themselves as the good people in the global economic “movie.”
Basically, the global economy (and some of this may apply to the ongoing wars and attempts at peace) is living in an After School Special – though everyone seems to believe they are on the “good” side.

The Problem with “An Eye for an Eye”

In theory an “eye for an eye” makes some sense. You poke out my eye, I poke out your eye. We are all even. We move on. Maybe this is where the concept of “reciprocity” fits in?

The problem is, in the real world, even at the After School Special level of preachiness, you can see how things can get out of control. No one can figure out who took the first eye, so it just keeps going on and on. Sound familiar to the tariff “negotiations” or rationalizations?

Why did you slap me?
Because you made fun of my girlfriend.
Oh, but I said that because you mushed my brother’s ice cream into his face.
And I’m sure there was a reason to mush the brother’s face in ice cream.
And on and on and on.
Okay, this sounds juvenile (and it is) but isn’t what we are…