News Science Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 121153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL052024
8:00 A.M. Atlantic Standard Time Mon Aug 12 2024


  • TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
  • NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE

SUMMARY OF 8:00 A.M. Atlantic Standard Time 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION

LOCATION 14.6 NORTH 54.3 WEST
ABOUT 525 MILES, 845 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 830 MILES, 1335 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MILES PER HOUR, 45 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT WEST, OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MILES PER HOUR, 43 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MILLIBAR, 29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

  • The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.
  • The government of the Netherlands has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and Saint Eustatius.
  • The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Saint Martin, and St. Barthelemy.
  • The government of Sint Maarten has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

  • Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
  • Guadeloupe
  • Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
  • Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for

  • British Virgin Islands
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra
  1. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
  2. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
  3. Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
  4. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today.
  5. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  6. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

  • At 8:00 A.M. Atlantic Standard Time (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 54.3 West.
  • The system is moving toward the west near 26 Miles Per Hour, (43 Kilometers Per Hour), and a westward to west northwestward motion is expected with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.
  • On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 30 Miles Per Hour, (45 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours high 90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days high 90 percent.
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 Millibar, (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL:

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands.
  • For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
  • Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
    • Windward Islands 1 to 4 inches
    • Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:

  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning late tonight or Tuesday.
  • Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:

  • A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including Saint Thomas, St.John, and Saint Croix.
  • A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.
  • Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:

  • Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight.
  • These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  • Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

  • Next complete advisory at 11:00 A.M. Atlantic Standard Time.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Donald Trump Jr. Warns That the Fuse Is Already Lit on America’s Economic Time Bomb
Business Economics Entertainment Gossip News Politics Sports War

Donald Trump Jr. Warns That the Fuse Is Already Lit on America’s Economic Time Bomb

The following article by Donald Trump Jr. is sponsored by Birch Gold.  

Donald Trump Jr. here, with an urgent warning that Americans need to know before it’s too late.

The elites have set the dollar on an irreversible path to destruction. The damage runs deeper than most people realize, and time is running out to protect your hard-earned savings.

Let me lay out the harsh reality:

  1. The Obama administration kicked off an era of reckless spending and easy money policies.
  2. For four long years, the Biden administration has flooded the economy with trillions of increasingly worthless dollars.
  3. Our national debt has skyrocketed to unimaginable heights.
  4. The resulting inflation is eating away at your savings every single day.

We’re facing an economic time bomb, and the fuse is already lit. The truth is, there is no stopping what’s coming. The wheels are in motion, and the dollar’s decline may be unstoppable.

That’s why I’m urging you to take action NOW to protect your savings and your family’s future because time is running out.

So what should you do? For many Americans with an IRA or 401(k), I believe a gold IRA is the answer. Physical gold has intrinsic value that has withstood the test of time for thousands of years. Plus, it can’t be printed into oblivion like our fiat currency.

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Originally Posted At www.breitbart.com

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Does Printing Money Create Inflation?
Economics News philosophy Politics Science

Does Printing Money Create Inflation?

The Libertarian Party candidate for governor of North Carolina posed this question on Twitter a few days ago:

The question is poorly worded, but that is mainly the fault of the way the term “inflation” has fared in common parlance. Ross probably got the poll results he desired – he was trying to reinforce the idea that increasing the supply of money results in higher prices. The issue, however, is that those who understand that relationship are also usually the ones who think inflation ought to refer to increases in the money supply. For them, the question reads, “Does increasing the money supply create increases in the money supply?” The answer to the question now depends on how one interprets “create” instead of one’s understanding of economic cause-and-effect. Indeed, many of the discerning commenters said something to the effect of “printing money IS inflation.”

Ludwig von Mises lamented these terminological shifting sands in Human Action:

The semantic revolution which is one of the characteristic features of our day has also changed the traditional connotation of the terms inflation and deflation. What many people today call inflation or deflation is no longer the great increase or decrease in the supply of money, but its inexorable consequences, the general tendency toward a rise or a fall in commodity prices and wage rates. This innovation is by no means harmless. It plays an important role in fomenting the popular tendencies toward inflationism.

First of all there is no longer any term available to signify what inflation used to signify. It is impossible to fight a policy which you cannot name. Statesmen and writers no longer have the opportunity of resorting to a terminology accepted and understood by the public when they want to question the expediency of issuing huge amounts of additional money. They must enter into a detailed analysis and description of this policy with full particulars and minute accounts whenever they want to refer to it, and they must repeat this bothersome procedure in every sentence in which they deal with the subject. As this policy has no name, it becomes self-understood and a matter of fact. It goes on luxuriantly.

I’m reminded of Ronald Reagan’s pithy way of saying the same thing: “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” Mises realized that jumbling up the meanings of economic terms makes it easier for the state to implement disastrous policies. It’s difficult to criticize a policy when there is no consensus on what words mean.

The difficulty has only intensified over the years. Today, “inflation” is used by politicians, economists, commentators, and the public to refer to a host of different causes and even more effects.

  • Robert Reich refers to inflation as the higher prices caused by corporate greed and consolidation.
  • Kamala Harris, in her typical unscripted word salad, said inflation is “the cost of living going up,” and that it is “something that we take very seriously, very seriously.”
  • Paul Krugman thinks about inflation through the Keynesian aggregate supply and demand framework. For him, inflation is whatever is revealed in the various official price level statistics.
  • Jerome Powell also looks to the official statistics, but with an eye toward manipulating interest rates to minimize the difference between the year-over-year changes and the central bank’s two percent target.

Michael Bryan documented the evolution of the term inflation in three phases. Its original definition involved “a change in the proportion of currency in circulation relative to the amount of precious metal that constituted a nation’s money.” Later, economists started using the term to refer to increases in the supply of money relative to “the needs of trade” or the demand for money. Over the course of the 20th century, inflation became synonymous with price increases, “and its connection to money is often overlooked.”

Rothbard favored the original definition. Mises mainly dealt with the second. Modern Austrian economists make use of both definitions, but overwhelmingly reject the last. You will often hear modern Austrian economists (somewhat awkwardly) deal with the terminological problem by adding clarifiers: “monetary inflation,” “price inflation,” or “in this context, by ‘inflation’ I mean _____.”

The third definition (inflation is an increase in prices) has many serious problems. Chief among them, according to Mises, is that it conjures an

image of a level of a liquid which goes up or down according to the increase or decrease in its quantity, but which, like a liquid in a tank, always rises evenly. But with prices, there is no such thing as a “level.” Prices do not change to the same extent at the same time. There are always prices that are changing more rapidly, rising or falling more rapidly than other prices.

Another problem is that it leads the public and politicians to think that the consequences of monetary expansion can be arrested by further interventions like price controls: “While merely fighting symptoms, they pretend to fight the root causes of the evil. Because they do not comprehend the causal relation between the increase in the quantity of money on the one hand and the rise in prices on the other, they practically make things worse.”

Finally, the definition is causally naked. If inflation is an increase in prices, then anything that results in higher prices can be called “inflationary.” This became obvious in recent years when covid-era supply chain disruptions were said to have caused inflation. The same reasoning, with a dash of Marxist class conflict, allows the Robert Reichs and Elizabeth Warrens of the world to blame inflation on corporate greed. It has led to the segmentation of “inflation” by sector or industry: we have health care inflation, shelter inflation, inflation in higher education, energy inflation, and on and on. While disaggregation can be analytically useful, and often it is necessary when countering the highly-aggregated mainstream macroeconomics, this kind is not. It muddles the water regarding the nature of inflation, and it can’t capture the step-by-step process by which new money results in a “price revolution.” Fiat money inflation distorts the market as individuals receive it in exchange and then use it to increase their demands for goods produced in a variety of industries. Money goes from individual to individual, not industry to industry.

Mises was absolutely right when he concluded: “It is obvious that this new-fangled connotation of the terms inflation and deflation is utterly confusing and misleading and must be unconditionally rejected.”

Originally Posted at https://mises.org/

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Greece orders evacuations near Athens over wildfires: fire brigade
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Greece orders evacuations near Athens over wildfires: fire brigade

Greece ordered the evacuation Monday of multiple communities northeast of Athens as wildfires raged, the fire brigade said.

“Forest fire near you. Follow the instructions of the authorities,” said SMS messages sent to people in the Attica region, indicating in which direction to flee.


https://insiderpaper.com/

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News Science Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 120837
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not 
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not 
well organized.  However, these observations also suggest the 
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or 
northwest of the advisory position.  Until that is confirmed by 
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter 
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone 
status.  The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt.  A mid-level ridge is 
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical 
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less 
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease 
in forward speed.  After that, a mid-latitude trough moving 
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a 
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning 
northwestward and northward into the break.  While the model 
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there 
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will 
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track 
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the 
previous forecast.

Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and 
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 
36 h has been nudged downward.  However the system is still 
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward 
Islands.  Environmental conditions become more favorable for 
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows 
significant strengthening during that time.  This portion of the 
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or 
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are 
in effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into 
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the 
nearby islands.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be 
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 14.4N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  12/1800Z 15.0N  55.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 16.5N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 17.9N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 19.4N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 21.0N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 25.0N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 29.5N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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News Science Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT15 KNHC 120837
PWSAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  19(27)   2(29)   X(29)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   4(31)   X(31)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   2(20)   X(20)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  19(41)   1(42)   X(42)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)  16(44)   1(45)   X(45)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  11(38)   1(39)   X(39)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)  11(11)  13(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)  16(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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News Science Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory


000
WTNT35 KNHC 120836
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.  Additional
watches or warnings could be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue 
with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.  
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across 
portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. 
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later 
today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the 
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system this morning.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce 
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the 
Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with 
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday 
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning late tonight or Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico 
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and 
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. 
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet 
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.  Near the 
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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News Science Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 120836
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  52.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  52.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  51.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N  55.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N  59.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N  64.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N  66.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N  66.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 29.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  52.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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3 Billion People Exposed In Massive Unreported Data Theft
Economics News Politics Science

3 Billion People Exposed In Massive Unreported Data Theft

It’s one of the “biggest data breaches ever” and you might be exposed as a result. 

Background check company Jerico Pictures Inc., which does business under the name National Public Data was breached back hackers earlier this year, a new lawsuit alleges. 

The suit says that as a result, 2.9 billion people have had confidential data exposed and stolen, according to a new report from Mashable.

The worst part is that those impacted by this cyberattack may be unaware of their involvement since National Public Data allegedly collects data from non-public sources without consent.

The breach has exposed information on nearly 3 billion people, including full names, addresses, Social Security numbers, and personal details of both living and deceased relatives.

The Mashable report says that this previously unknown breach’s timing remains unclear.

Plaintiff Christopher Hofmann learned of it in July when an identity theft protection service alerted him that his data had been leaked on the dark web. The hackers posted the “National Public Data” database on a dark web forum in April, seeking $3.5 million from a buyer.

Last month, Mashable also reported on RockYou2024, a massive leak of nearly 10 billion users’ credentials, though it was an updated compilation of older breaches.

With billions of records exposed, the National Public Data breach could be one of the largest ever, comparable to Yahoo’s 2013 breach affecting 3 billion accounts.

Great news if you’re AT&T’s PR department though, we guess…

Loading…

Originally Posted at; https://www.zerohedge.com//

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Self-Determination, Imperialism, and Secession
Economics News philosophy Politics Science

Self-Determination, Imperialism, and Secession

This article is adapted from a lecture presented on August 3, 2024 at Mises University 2024 in Auburn, Alabama. 

The full name of this talk is “Self-Determination, Imperialism, and Secession: 3 Sides of the Same Coin.” So, I abuse the metaphor a bit, be we might also say that self-determination and secession—and self-determination’s opposite, imperialism—are three ways of looking at the same object.

The defense of self-determination is well-established within the so-called “classical” liberal tradition, and so let’s start with Ludwig von Mises, who understood liberalism well.

In his 1927 book Liberalism, Mises took a strict and expansive view in favor of self-determination. Specifically, he noted that respect for the right of self-determination required states to allow the separation of new polities via secession. He writes:

The right of self-determination in regard to the question of membership in a state thus means: whenever the inhabitants of a particular territory, whether it be a single village, a whole district, or a series of adjacent districts, make it known, by a freely conducted plebiscite, that they no longer wish to remain united to the state to which they belong at the time … their wishes are to be respected and complied with.

Put another way, secession is the means or tool by which self-determination is expressed and preserved in real world politics. The two concepts go hand in hand.

Where does Mises get this idea of self-determination? He was drawing upon currents of thought alive and well in Europe in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

Origins in the American Revolution

The concept of self-determination—albeit not the phrase—was already well-known as the driving force behind the American revolutionaries when the colonies seceded from the British Empire in the 1770s. Historian David Armitage describes the United States’ war for independence as essentially the practical and political starting point for modern ideas of self-determination. While the philosophical roots of self-determination are often attributed to Immanuel Kant, the prototype for a real-life secession movement was found in the American war for independence. Referring to Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence, Armitage writes: “The notion that ‘one People’ might find it ‘necessary’ to dissolve its links with a larger polity—that is, that it might legitimately attempt to secede . . . was almost entirely unprecedented and barely accepted at the time of the American Revolution.”

The success of the United States in asserting a right of self-determination provoked similar movements in Europe and Latin America in the decades following American independence. For instance, Armitage notes that “language for self-determination” found in the Declaration of Independence would show up repeatedly with Latin American, European, and Asian movements seeking political independence.

In the Declaration, Jefferson was, of course drawing heavily on the thought of John Locke who himself recognized a right to self-determination secured through secession. But not as explicitly as Jefferson does. According to political scientist Lee Ward, Locke “had a highly developed right of revolution analogous to a remedial right of secession.” Based, in part, on “property rights of a conquered people.” Locke, for example, recognized that that Greeks within the Ottoman empire possessed a right to secede to defend themselves and their property against their Turkish overlords. That is, the Greeks had a right to self-determination.

Locke did fear where all this was leading if some sort of limitation was not put on who could assert a right to self-determination.

Locke suggested that only groups with size, institutions, and cohesion substantial enough to form their own legislatures could exercise a right to secession and political self-determination. Even here, however, Locke is not overly rigid. That is, there remains within Locke’s formulation the potential for a wide variety of communities to assert independence and self-determination. Ward notes that in Locke’s thinking “[t]he claim that legislative power can never revert to individuals does not preclude the possibility that one community within a larger society can assume legislative power.” From this power then flows a right to secession and self-determination.

Jefferson adopts a more flexible attitude than Locke, and assumed that new secession movements in America would arise in the future. He never expressed much concern with the details of which groups would secede or with what institutions. Jefferson supported efforts that would mitigate the need for secession as a means to realizing self-determination.

The Idea Spreads to Europe

In Europe, the concept spread in the late eighteenth century and into the nineteenth. For example, self-determination was a central theme in Poland’s fight in 1794 to fully separate from the Prussian, Austrian, and Russian states. Poland’s leading separatist was Tadeusz Kościuszko, who had been an officer in the Continental Army during the American Revolution and who was quite familiar with the Declaration of Independence. As historian Victor Kattan notes, Kościuszko was pushing for self-determination well before the concept entered the common lexicon in Europe.

Mises, who was well-versed in Polish history, was likely aware of this. Mises would have been even more familiar with the battles over self-determination that raged across Habsburg lands a generation before his birth. Chief among these was Hungary’s attempt to secede from the Austrian empire in 1848. These conflicts were very much couched in terms of self-determination.

By the 1870s, the phrase “self-determination” appears to have been increasingly common—especially in the German language. The German form of the phrase shows up among Czech parliamentarians of the Austrian Imperial Council in 1870. It is also found in French writings at least as early as 1862. It is notable that in the English version of Mises’s Liberalism that we now all read—a translation by Ralph Raico—that Raico translates the relevant German phrase as “self-determination.”

Self-determination via secession also gained support among French radical liberals Gustave de Molinari and Charles Dunoyer. Indeed, it is with Molinari that we see what is perhaps the first explicit endorsement of more or less top-to-bottom secession with what Molinari called a “double right of secession.” The idea here is that the commune can secede from the province, and the province can secede from the central state. That is, self-determination is in no way limited to any large recognized political entity, ethnicity, or religious group.

Here we see a similar view to that which Mises took about 40 years later. The right to self-determination, expressed and secured through a plebiscite, extends all the way down to even the smallest political entity.

Murray Rothbard, a disciple of both Mises and Molinari, unsurprisingly adopted a very flexible view on self-determination via secession. Rothbard wrote in 1969:

Secession is a crucial part of the libertarian philosophy: that every state be allowed to secede from the nation, every sub-state from the state, every neighborhood from the city, and, logically, every individual or group from the neighborhood.

This view of secession and self-determination should not be confused with limited or distorted views of “self-determination” offered by some other secessionists.

For example, the Hungarian nationalists in 1848 wanted self-determination for themselves within the Austrian Empire, but denied the same to other ethnic groups like the Croatians and Slovenians.

Another example is the American secessionists of the nineteenth century who denied a general right to self-determination. Theorists like John C. Calhoun, for example, did not allow for secession for any group other than state governments. Rothbard pointed out the inconsistency and the lack of any general theory of self-determination underlying this position.

Needless to say, these views fell far short of the sort of self-determination supported by Mises or Molinari or Rothbard.

By the early twentieth century, self-determination was not just a phrase used by liberals like Mises. The term was also used —although with far more cynical intent—by the likes of Vladimir Lenin and Woodrow Wilson, neither of whom were Jeffersonian liberals, of course.

Lenin used self-determination as a tool against what he saw as capitalist imperialism. Woodrow Wilson used the term for purposes of realpolitik—that is, to justify breaking off pieces of Austria and Germany following the First World War. It is notable that Wilson did not grant self-determination to Germans enclaves in countries with non-German majorities, however.

The United Nations and Self-Determination

Bizarrely, there are many American political commentators today—including even many so-called libertarians—who attempt to designate modern efforts at secession and self-determination as some kind of rightwing or reactionary strategy.

This would likely be news to the authors of the United Nations Charter which explicitly lists a right of self-determination—and therefore the right to political separation via secession— among the basic rights it enumerates.

Self-determination is a well-established right across the political spectrum, and at this point the debate over self-determination is only a debate over when and where this right may be invoked.

When the charter was adopted in 1945, colonial powers such as Britain and France were reluctant to approve any broad interpretation of the concept of self-determination. Winston Churchill, after years of denouncing Germans for violating self-determination rights in Europe, turned around and insisted that the concept did not apply to Africans. Eventually, however, many colonies managed to use the UN Charter’s words on self-determination to justify secession from their colonial masters.

In response, many UN member states insisted that self-determination via “unilateral secession” only applies to colonial subjects of an obvious nature—i.e., people in places like Kenya and Nigeria. “Noncolonial” subjects, the thinking went, did not have the same rights of secession and self-determination. The basis for this distinction between colonial and noncolonial secession has always been murky, however, largely because there is no undisputed definition of what regions or populations are “colonial” in nature. The definition of this status has at times become so arbitrary that one criterion has been whether or not the colony and the metropole are separated by a body of salt water. A dividing line of mere fresh water, or a desert or a mountain range, wouldn’t count. This conveniently denies Australian aborigines, North American Indians, and Siberian natives the right of self-determination. Moreover, member states of the UN have frequently insisted that self-determination can only be invoked as “remedial self-determination” in cases of major violations of human rights such as genocide. That is, secession can only be resorted to as a remedy for rights violations in extremis.

Of course what qualifies as “in extremis” has never been established. There is no agreement over how many abuses must be endured at the hands of an imperial government before a remedial right of secession can be invoked. There is no agreement over the means by which public support for separation can be asserted. Nor is there agreement over what constitutes colonial subjugation.

What is not in dispute, however, is that a right to self-determination via secession exists, and that secession is justified in at least some cases. Thus, the current borders of the world’s sovereign states are therefore neither sacrosanct nor perpetual.

On the other hand, and not surprisingly, the status quo powers tend to only grudgingly accept a right to self-determination, and even then only for some people suffering outrageous war crimes. Unfortunately, this position essentially means that the right of self-determination for victims of regime abuse are not recognized so long as the state’s crimes fall short of outright genocide, slavery, and similar crimes.

Since the 1940s, the concept of self-determination in international law has broadened—although nowhere near Mises’s interpretation. For example, the UN’s 1970 “Declaration on Principles of International Law Concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States” explicitly expands self-determination beyond colonial subjects. The declaration predictably lists colonial subjugation as a justification for secession, but A careful reading of this section also leads one to conclude that those states that lose the support of “the whole people”—whether in a colonial relationship or otherwise—can legitimize the dismemberment of the state.

Moreover, the declaration’s language may further open the door to legitimizing the use of secession to address violations of self- determination “in moderato.” That is, international law discourse increasingly recognizes that secession need not be justified only by war crimes and genocide.

What constitutes “serious injustices,” of course, remains a matter of debate, as is the “acceptable” means of obtaining and enforcing this separation. The Misesian approach would be what philosopher Allan Buchanan calls the “pure plebiscite theory” of the right to secede. According to Buchanan the theory proposes that “any group that can constitute a majority (or, on some accounts, a ‘substantial’ majority) in favor of secession within a portion of the state has the right to secede.” This approach has indeed been used to establish political support and legitimacy for secession movements in many cases over the past century. Modern examples include Iceland in 1944, Malta in 1964, Slovenia in 1990. One might also include here Norway’s secession from Sweden in 1905. Yet plebiscites are not always used, as the examples of the American Revolution and the post-Soviet Baltic states make clear.

Limiting the Scope of Self-Determination

As to the question of when self-determination can be enjoyed and exercised, we might appropriate an old joke about socialism and say that “self-determination is like food in a socialist state. Not everybody gets some.“

And why doesn’t everyone get some? Because existing polities—states in the modern world—are not inclined to reduce their own power by granting self-determination to separatists.

Consequently, we observe that although radical liberals like Rothbard maintain that self-determination is an individual right, in the real world, it is exceptionally rare that an individual ever has the means to demand and secure self-determination on his own. The realities of life on planet earth requires some sort of collective action to secure these rights. As Allen Buchanan has observed, however, the fact that secession movements seeking self-determination are often brought about by groups of people does not mean self-determination cannot be an individual right.

For Buchanan, John Locke’s right of revolution falls into this category as well. It is an individual right generally exercised by groups. So, when Jefferson writes that “one people” can “dissolve the political bands” between polities, he’s not saying this right is a communal right only. Buchanan suggests that both revolution and secession in pursuit of self-determination should be “understood as the right of persons subject to a political authority to defend themselves from serious injustices” (emphasis added).

Even in a world where political leaders admit on a theoretical level that a right to self-determination exists, political leaders seek to manufacture many reasons why self-determination must not be allowed.

Essentially, nearly all reasons given for this boils down to various types of paternalism, colonialism, and imperialism.

This is easy to see both in nineteenth century colonialist rhetoric, but also in modern-day centralist rhetoric that denies self-determination to those labeled as “backward” or as not sufficiently enlightened to be allowed self-determination.

Self-Determination is Denied through “Humanitarian” Imperialism and Colonialism

It is important to keep in mind that the opposite of self-determination is imperial subjugation. As Locke, Jefferson, Mises, and many others state, to be held within a polity against your will is to be subject to a type of colonial rule. Thus, to deny self-determination and its realization through secession, is to embrace imperialism and colonialism.

Modern imperialists deny this, of course, and think themselves humanitarians who only want to protect human rights by maintaining their enlightened despotism over others.

We see this in how so-called humanitarianism remains a common excuse for imperialist centralization of power.

Preventing human rights violations, and Spreading civilization in general has long been used as an excuse for state-building through colonialism and imperialism—that is, through political centralization. This idea dates back at least to early Spanish and colonial efforts in the New World, and the rationale was initially employed as just one of many.

The importance of the conquest-spreads-civilization claim increased, however, as liberalism gained ground in Europe in the nineteenth century. Liberals were more skeptical of the benefits of imperialism. So, in this period, as political scientist Lea Ypi notes: “During the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century, the purpose of colonial rule was declared to be the ‘civilizing mission’ of the West to educate barbarian peoples.” The implied conclusion was that it was necessary that the European rulers “take over [the natives’] administration, and set up new officers and governors on their behalf, or even give them new masters, so long as this could be proved to be in their interest.”

That last caveat would become important to late colonial rationales: colonial rule was said to be in the interests of the natives themselves, who were incapable of proper and legitimate self-government. The British adopted these Spanish notions as their own in later centuries, and by the nineteenth century, we find John Stuart Mill claiming that “barbarians” were the be denied self-determination for their own good.

Today, the same thinking takes the form of support for humanitarian intervention both internationally and domestically. Just as the traditional imperialists assumed the residents of the colonies were too backward to be capable of enlightened self-government, modern opponents of a broad application of self-determination rights assume that central governments still must serve as enforcers of human rights across the globe.

The old imperialist mentality still prevails: political independence must be opposed in the name of protecting human rights.

Not surprisingly, by the way, the old radical liberals who broadly supported self-determination didn’t fall for this imperialist humanitrain ruse.

Indeed, many classical liberals—such as the great Richard Cobden—have long denied that such policies were ever worth it. Ludwig von Mises was a typical liberal in this regard when he wrote in the 1920s:

No chapter of history is steeped further in blood than the history of colonialism. Blood was shed uselessly and senselessly. Flourishing lands were laid waste; whole peoples destroyed and exterminated. All this can in no way be extenuated or justified. The dominion of Europeans in Africa and in important parts of Asia is absolute. It stands in the sharpest contrast to all the principles of liberalism and democracy, and there can be no doubt that we must strive for its abolition.

It is also notable that Mises wasn’t fooled by the claim that the imperialists are spreading peace and civilization. Mises writes:

Attempts have been made to extenuate and gloss over the true motive of colonial policy with the excuse that its sole object was to make it possible for primitive peoples to share in the blessings of European civilization.

The fact that modern humanitarian interventions often end in bloodbaths and poverty for the local populations —as in Iraq and other countries that have fallen victim to American humanitarian interventions in recent decades—reminds us of what results from denying self-determination. When we add up the human cost of the Scramble for Africa, American westward expansion, the Russian conquest of Siberia, the French annexation of Algeria, and the long march of the British empire, it is hardly evident that this was all “worth it” to bring enlightenment to the provincials. In fact, Western imperialism has largely functioned to create animosity against the West.

The humanitarian excuse for increasing regime power over retrograde locals has domestic applications as well. In the United States today, we often see the humanitarian excuse applied to deny self-determination to state and local governments. We are often told that only the central government in Washington is qualified to make final rulings—via the Supreme Court—as to what constitutes the “correct” interpretation of human rights. Local interpretations are considered suspect, and null and void if in conflict with the value of the metropole. (This reasoning differs little from a pith-helmet wearing British imperialist of old droning on about the white man’s burden.) Humanitarianism is similarly invoked whenever secession is mentioned as a means of protecting self-determination for some groups. Self-determination cannot be tolerated, many anti-secessionists tell us, because we have the Supreme Court and the White House to impose “humanitarian” and enlightened rule in all parts of the country. Those state legislatures or city councils who choose not to rule in line with the rulings of the Washington elite have rendered themselves threats to human rights, and thus have given up their right to self-government.

Indeed, vehement opposition to self-determination for separatists and decentralists remains plentiful. Among the writers of the pundit class, any number of arguments are used to claim that self-determination for out-of-power minority groups is not desirable or moral.

The centralizing elites in these cases insist that self-determination for separatists cannot be tolerated because its advocates are racists and fascist barbarians and cannot be trusted with self-government. Here’s a representative example of this line of thinking from MSNBC’s Joy Reid commenting on what would happen if people who don’t agree with her are able to obtain self-determination via so-called national divorce:

Today, roughly half of African Americans still live in the 11 Southern states that comprised the Confederacy, and so if this national divorce happened, they would be trapped in an apartheid hellscape of a new country with zero health care, crappy public schools, barely a right to vote, and a full return to ownership by someone else of their bodies — except this time it wouldn’t just be Black women, it would be all women.

Social democrats aren’t the only ones who embrace this line of thinking, however. This same rhetoric is employed by some libertarians. For example, Zach Weissmueller at Reason magazine writes:

In post-divorce America, California would have freer rein to confiscate guns. Florida lawmakers could shrug off the First Amendment and ban “offensive” speech. Cops everywhere wouldn’t need to concern themselves about violating citizens’ constitutional rights.

In both the social-democratic and the libertarian views shown here, the argument is essentially that if any region of the country is allowed to separate from Washington’s control, then the breakaway region will immediately set to work violating human rights. The conclusion we are supposed to draw is that support for self-determination amounts to support for slavery, gun bans, censorship, and a police state. By this way of thinking, it is assumed that the regime in Washington, DC is a reliable defender of human rights. This latter claim is a naïve view, to say the least.

Leftists and the libertarians differ in which human rights are put at risk by the spread of self-determination, but in both cases the arguments amount to this: without coercion and enforcement from the enlightened central government, state and local governments in the United States are simply too prone to tyranny and mismanagement. If allowed independent and localized government, those people over there might adopt policies I disagree with. Therefore, they must be subjugated to a central government with policies I prefer.” Therefore, no self-determination allowed.

We have words for this sort of thinking: imperialism and colonialism. Indeed, the assumption that potential separatists must be forced to submit to more “enlightened” government from the center—for the locals’ own good—is standard colonialist propaganda. It is essentially what European and American imperialists were saying 200 years ago to justify continuation of their respective governments’ efforts as conquerors and imperial metropoles. After all, most people living in the conquered colonial territories had their own ideas about government, culture, and natural rights. Many of these ideas were objectionable to the sensibilities of the elites back in the capital cities such as London, Paris, Moscow, and Washington, DC. Thus, the American regime regarded the Indian tribes as barbarians.

Why It’s Critical to Define Aspiring Separatists as Inferiors Unfit for Self-Government

Philosopher Uma Narayan has identified these tactics as core to the effort to centralize and enhance political power over populations deemed unfit for political independence. To consolidate the metropole’s rule, it becomes necessary, Narayan notes, to employ “stereotypes about the negative and inferior status” of the people in the conquered provinces and to “construct the colonized as childish and inferior subjects…” Thus, imperialists employed words like “savage,” “barbarian,” “backward,” and “patriarchal” to describe the conquered populations and support the claim that the colonial territories required enlightened rule from the central state.

In more recent decades, new terms are employed including ”undemocratic,” “misogynist,” racist, “gun nut,” or “redneck.”

An additional tactic is to insist that any attempt at self-government by the conquered population would not just be unenlightened, but downright illegitimate. For instance, as Ypi has shown, imperial states have employed a “legitimate-state theory” under which local claims to territorial rights are made “conditional upon the satisfaction of a number of internal and external conditions.” That is, the metropole insists it cannot allow self-determination unless it is satisfied that the population seeking self-determination will set up political institutions that are to the liking of the central state. Similarly, colonialists might employ what John Ladd calls the “doctrine of moral disqualification.” This doctrine is employed when the in-group—in this case the central state’s ruling class—defines “the other” or out-group as moral inferiors, and whose backward ways disqualify them from “full membership in the moral community.” More importantly, as Eric Reitan puts it, those deemed to be outside the moral community “may thus be treated in ways that would never be permitted” to members of the moral in-group.

No matter how exactly it is phrased, the message from opponents of self-determination is clear: separatists must not be allowed to leave peacefully because they are either unwilling or incapable of legitimate or moral self-government. Rather, these separatists require the central regime to ensure the administration of enlightened and orderly government. It’s an old claim with a long pedigree among the imperialists of old.

Originally Posted at https://mises.org/

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