Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT22 KNHC 160233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
000 WTNT33 KNHC 152340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ERRATICALLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.8W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and the vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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National Hurricane Center
Location: 25.7°N 109.6°W
Moving: NW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Public
Advisory
#13
800 AM MST
Forecast
Advisory
#13
1500 UTC
Forecast
Discussion
#13
800 AM MST
Wind Speed
Probabilities
#13
1500 UTC
Originally Posted at:
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
000 WTNT33 KNHC 152056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The disturbance is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the potential tropical cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory
601 WTNT23 KNHC 152055 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 60SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 152030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 46.1W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 46.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT22 KNHC 152030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Forecast Discussion
227 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 Ileana has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday afternoon, as the system has been within a strong wind shear and very dry environment. Given the lack of convection, the system is being designated as a post-tropical remnant low. An ASCAT-C pass from late last night depicted winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa. Given this, will hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. The system has been meandering over the Gulf of California with a motion of 310/3 kt. The remnant low will increase forward speed later today as it continues northwestward. The remnant low will continue to weaken throughout the day, and is forecast to dissipate on Monday. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Public Advisory
247 WTPZ34 KNHC 151439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 109.6W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM W OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion will continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the remnant low will move over the Gulf of California near the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to weaken today and dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ileana may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to portions of northwest Sinaloa through today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will continue to subside along the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly
Originally Posted at:
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
221
FOPZ14 KNHC 151439
PWSEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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