Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Forecast Advisory
198 WTPZ24 KNHC 151438 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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FRONTLINES: Number of foreign-born US citizens reaches highest level in over 100 years
According to a report by The New York Sun that analyzed 2023 data from the American Community Survey, the proportion of foreign-born US residents rose to 14.3 percent in 2023, up from 13.9 percent in 2022, marking the highest rate since 1910, when it was 14.7 percent. This trend highlights the significant role of immigration in shaping recent US population growth.
“We knew that here you can have savings, live well. Here you can have normal services such as water and electricity,” legal immigrant Luciana Bracho, who moved from Venezuela to Miami, told the outlet. “I like Miami and the opportunities that I have had.”
The data revealed that migrants accounted for more than two-thirds of US population growth in 2023 and nearly three-quarters of the country’s total growth over the past decade. The largest proportion of foreign-born residents in 2023 came from Latin America, rising from 50.3 percent in 2022 to 51.2 percent in 2023. Latin America was the only region with an increase in representation among US foreign-born residents.
In terms of ethnic demographics, US residents identifying as Hispanic increased from 19.1 percent to 19.4 percent, while the share of those identifying as white dropped significantly from 57.7 percent to 57.1 percent. The percentage of those identifying as black also saw a slight decrease, from 12.2 percent to 12.1 percent.
The data further revealed that states experiencing the increases in foreign-born residents included Delaware, Georgia, and New Mexico, while states such as Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota saw slight decreases.
This piece first appeared at TPUSA.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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JOBOB: New Hampshire Supreme Court rules in favor of school district educators hiding transgender status of students from parents
The New Hampshire Supreme Court ruled on Friday to uphold a Manchester School District policy that instructs school officials not to inform parents if their child identifies as transgender. The decision affirms a lower court ruling that had previously dismissed a lawsuit challenging the policy.
The policy in question states that school personnel “should not disclose information that may reveal a student’s transgender status or gender non-confirming presentation to others unless legally required to do so or unless the student has authorized such disclosure.” In 2022, a mother in the district filed a lawsuit, arguing that the policy infringes on her parental rights by preventing her from being informed about her child’s so-called gender identity.
However, in a 3-1 decision, the New Hampshire Supreme Court upheld the previous ruling from a lower court that dismissed the lawsuit. Chief Justice Gordon MacDonald, writing for the majority, stated, “By its terms, the policy does not directly implicate a parent’s ability to raise and care for his or her child,” Chief Justice Gordon MacDonald wrote in the decision.
“We cannot conclude that any interference with parental rights which may result from non-disclosure is of constitutional dimension,” the decision stated.
The mother who filed the lawsuit discovered that her child had requested school officials to use a name associated with the opposite sex. When she learned of this, she asked the school’s faculty to refer to her child by their birth name and pronouns corresponding to their biological sex. However, the school principal informed her that the staff was “held by the district policy” and could not “disclose a student’s choice to parents if asked not to.”
In her dissenting opinion, Justice Melissa Beth Conway argued that “accurate information in response to parents’ inquiries about a child’s expressed gender identity is imperative to the parents’ ability to assist and guide their child.”
Following the decision, the Manchester School District praised the ruling. According to a press release obtained by the Daily Caller, the district stated that the superintendent and district leadership are pleased with the court’s decision to uphold the policy.
This piece first appeared at TPUSA.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory
887 WTNT22 KNHC 150900 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Ileana Forecast Discussion
064 WTPZ44 KNHC 150844 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ileana Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 All of Ileana's deep convection dissipated yesterday afternoon, and all that is left now is a swirl of low clouds off the coast of northern Sinaloa. An ASCAT-C pass from 0410 UTC showed maximum winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa, and a weather station in Topolobampo is no longer reporting winds to tropical storm force. As a result, Ileana is now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, and all coastal warnings in Mexico have been discontinued. Ileana has been meandering, but the longer-term motion is west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. Model guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn northwestward later today but maintain a generally slow motion while moving over the Gulf of California. Due to strong southwesterly shear and a very dry atmosphere, deep convection is not expected to redevelop, and it's likely that Gordon will be declared a remnant low later this morning. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
164
FOPZ14 KNHC 150843
PWSEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150843 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ileana Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...ILEANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 109.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ileana was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move over the Gulf of California near the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ileana is expected to become a remnant low later this morning. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ileana may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to portions of northwest Sinaloa through today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will continue to subside along the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
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Tropical Depression Ileana Forecast Advisory
376 WTPZ24 KNHC 150843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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TROPICAL STORM GORDON
TROPICAL STORM GORDON
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 150838 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this morning. Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than 5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast, trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5. Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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