Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT45 KNHC 182042 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve, with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could be a harbinger for more significant intensification. While subjective Dvorak estimates have not increased much this afternoon, the objective intensity values now range from 60-69 kt and so the initial intensity was raised to 65 kt, making Ernesto a hurricane again. Ernesto's wind field is a bit smaller than yesterday, as indicated by a helpful set of scatterometer passes over Ernesto that were useful to adjust the 34- and 50-kt wind radii earlier today. With the improving inner-core structure, Ernesto is looking increasingly likely to take advantage of the favorable short-term conditions until the hurricane reaches the northern extent of the Gulf Stream at around 40 N. The raw output form the hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be well underway by tomorrow afternoon. Shear is also forecast to increase after that time as well, and my best guess at the timing of extratropical transition, diagnosed by FSU cyclone-phase space diagrams and GFS/EC simulated satellite imagery, is shortly after 36 h on Tuesday morning as Ernesto passes just southeast of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the interpolated guidance aids in 12 h, but falls back to the multi-model intensity mean towards the end of its lifespan in 60-h where the cyclone will open up into a trough over the central North Atlantic. Ernesto continues its gradual acceleration north-northeast, estimated now at 020/15-kt. A further increase in forward motion with a turn more northeastward is anticipated over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the hurricane's southeast. A turn more east-northeastward is expected thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone located further north between Greenland and Iceland. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly clustered and pretty close to the prior forecast track, and only slight track adjustments were made this cycle. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 37.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 182041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Sun Aug 18 2024
- ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN
- DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
SUMMARY OF 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 37.1 NORTH 62.3 WEST
ABOUT 520 MILES, 840 KILOMETERS SOUTH, OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 815 MILES, 1310 KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST, OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 MILES PER HOUR, 120 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST, OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MILES PER HOUR, 28 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MILLIBAR, 28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 62.3 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north northeast near 17 Miles Per Hour, (28 Kilometers Per Hour) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.
- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 Miles Per Hour, (120 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes a post tropical cyclone on Tuesday.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 Millibar, (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.
- Life threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days.
- In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at: NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT25 KNHC 182041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gilma Public Advisory
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182041 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Originally Posted at:
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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 182041 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.6N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 121.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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UK man faces jail time for ‘instigating’ riots, supporting protests in X posts after school girls killed
A judge in the United Kingdom has put another online journalist in jail for three years over a post that was found to encourage people to riot. The UK is actively charging citizens for sharing posts that are deemed to be “inciting racial hatred” while mass migration protests persist.
Carer Wayne O’Rourke, 35, who had more than 90,000 followers on X and was earning about $1,900 USD from it every month, posted in support of local protests against the Labour government’s immigration policies, the Daily Mail reported. On July 29, O’Rourke posted about the deaths of three children at Taylor Swift dance class in Southport and said it was a terrorist attack instigated by a Muslim.
The poster was incorrect about the man’s origin. The murderer was the son of Rwandan immigrants but born in the UK. In another post that reached 1.7 million viewers, he asked, “People of Southport where the f**k are you, get out on the street.” O’Rourke also posted pictures of a mosque in Liverpool and a burning car in Sunderland, to which he decided to add, “Sunderland, go on lads.”
Referring to Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who critics call “Two-Tier Kier” because of his alleged duplicitous justice policies, O’Rourke wrote, “Starmer has basically said it us against them. Hold the line.” Other examples of his supposedly seditious posts include the observations that ‘Numbers are important’ and his exhortation to “give them hell lads.”
O’Rourke’s X profile showed a picture of a bulldog wearing a Union Jack jacket: a depiction of patriotism that was well known to Britons who considered the bulldog a symbol of their nation. The judge found O’Rourke guilty of promulgating “racial hatred” with his posts.
Court officer Lucia Harrington accused the social media reporter of being “caught up in the media frenzy” and urged him to “reeducate himself,” according to the Daily Mail. Judge Catarina Sjolin Knight told O’Rourke: ‘You were not caught up in what others were doing; you were instigating it.’
She added that the riots had had “the flames fanned by keyboard warriors like you.” Another “keyboard warrior,” a 53-yar-old woman, received a 15 month sentence for urging followers to “blow the mosque up.” Another man went to jail for posting “grossly offensive” emojis on Facebook.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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UK teachers told to refer male students suspected of ‘extreme misogyny’ to counter-terrorism authorities
The UK government is set to classify “extreme misogyny” as a form of terrorism, as part of an effort to address the so-called growing radicalization of young men online.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has ordered a review of the country’s counter-terrorism strategy to tackle what she describes as significant gaps in the government’s current approach to extremism. The review will consider violence against women alongside other forms of extremism, such as Islamist and far-right terrorism.
Due to the proposed changes, teachers and other professionals could be legally required to report students they suspect of engaging in “extreme misogyny” to Prevent, the government’s counter-terrorism program. Currently, educators, healthcare workers, and other officials are obligated to refer individuals they believe may be at risk of radicalization. Once referred, the individual is assessed by local authorities and police to determine if “they need to be deradicalized,” according to a report by The Telegraph.
“For too long, Governments have failed to address the rise in extremism, both online and on our streets, said Cooper. “We’ve seen the number of young people radicalized online grow. Hateful incitement of all kinds fractures and frays the very fabric of our communities and our democracy.”
The Home Office currently lists several categories of extremism, including Islamist, extreme right-wing, animal rights, environmental, and Northern Ireland-related extremism. The term “incel,” short for involuntarily celibate, is also included, as the UK defines individuals under this category as men who may develop violent tendencies towards women due to perceived rejection. However, Cooper and other officials believe this is insufficient and that further measures are needed.
This review follows a recent statement by Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley, who called for violence against women to be treated as a national security threat. The findings of Cooper’s review are expected later this year and will form the basis for a new counter-extremism strategy set to launch next year.
“Action against extremism has been badly hollowed out in recent years, just when it should have been needed most,” Cooper claimed. “That’s why I have directed the Home Office to conduct a rapid analytical sprint on extremism, to map and monitor extremist trends, to understand the evidence about what works to disrupt and divert people away from extremist views, and to identify any gaps in existing policy which need to be addressed to crack down on those pushing harmful and hateful beliefs and violence.”
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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JACK POSOBIEC: ‘Get in the fight’ and chase ballots
Human Events host Jack Posobiec recently dismissed concerns about Kamala Harris’ rising popularity since becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. Posobiec declared that the “Kamala Harris honeymoon is over,” pointing to a series of polls that show a much tighter race in this upcoming election than people believe.
Since President Joe Biden announced that he would no longer be running for re-election, Harris has had a large amount of momentum both in the media and the polls. However, the dramatic boost in her polling numbers may have been temporary, as she is now neck-and-neck with Trump in several swing states and polls.
Posobiec highlighted a new Emerson College poll from Pennsylvania from Friday, showing Trump holding a two-point lead over Harris in the state. Posobiec reminded listeners that “Pennsylvania is key,” emphasizing that the state will be critical in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.
The Economist’s election forecast currently shows Harris with 272 electoral votes and Trump with 266, just shy of the 270 needed for victory, indicating a very close race. Posobiec also cited an RNG Research national poll showing Trump at 46 percent and Harris at 45 percent.
“We have a knife fight. This race is on a razor’s edge,” Posobiec remarked. Given the tight competition, he urged those supporting Trump to “do the work,” particularly in battleground states, by getting involved with right-wing groups focused on increasing voter turnout.
“You need to get in the fight and commit yourself to action,” Posobiec advised.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion
841 WTNT45 KNHC 181448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the modest improvement in Ernesto's structure on satellite, and the initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at 60 kt this advisory. Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward, estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory
085 WTNT35 KNHC 181445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 62.5W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 880 MI...1410 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 62.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and some increase in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and Ernesto is forecast to regain hurricane status. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical after it passes by southeastern Newfoundland by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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